Political Diary

New Delhi, 8 February 2014

Third Front Brinkmanship

NEBULOUS KING-MAKERS ALL

By Poonam I Kaushish

The history of 1977, 1989 and 1996-98 has come a full circle. A non-Congress, non-BJP grouping has taken shape with 11 Parties coming together to form a nascent nebulous ‘Third Front” ahead of general elections in May. Of tailored smiles, stitched friendships and buttoned up deals politicians of all stripes and colours underscored once again that democracy is a kingless regime infested by many kings!

Namely, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK, her Bihar counter part Nitish Kumar’s JD(U), Orissa’s Naveen Patnaik BJD and UP’s Mulayam Singh Samajwadi along with the Left brigade: CPM, CPI, RSP, Forward Bloc, Asom Gana Parishad, Jharkhand Vikas Morcha and Gowda’s JD(S).Together, totalling 92 MPs in the 543 Lok Sabha. All gung-ho about taking on the two national Parties.

Raising a moot point: Will this vague Front with a pro-people, anti-communal and federal agenda remain ephemeral?  Are they simply jumping the gun as the Front avers that each Party can go in for seat arrangements in their respective States? Without evolving a common strategy and programme how will it resolve differences bound to come-up with each having different agenda’s with their own axe to grind with the Congress and BJP?

Will they individually jump the federal ship if BJP’s Modi manages to get 160-180 MPs? Think. The JD(U), AIADMK, BJD and AGP were part of the ruling NDA during Prime Minister Vajpayee's rule 1998-2004 along-with the Shiv Sena and Badal’s Akali Dal. But the BJD and the JD(U) parted company with the NDA last year, AIADMK and AGP earlier.

As history shows egos, prejudices, mutual suspicions, perceived slights are special genetic defects of a Third Force as witnessed during Morarji Desai and Charan Singh’s Janata Party Government in 1977, VP Singh and Chandra Shekhar’s Janata Dal in 1989, Gowda and Gujral’s United Front in 1996-98. All were short-lived thanks to internal contradictions spilling into the open. The fractious functioning of the new bandits exemplifies the problems in forging a team out of a garrulous bunch of leaders.

Both Gowda and Nitish magnanimously asserted they were not interested in becoming Prime Minister while Mulayam continues to aver he will play king-maker. Then why come together? After all politics is all about power and the kursi that goes with it.  Perhaps, they do not want to kill the idea even before it is born. Questionably, how will they iron out inter-Party and intra-Party differences?

The less said the better of trio, Samajwadi and JD(S) which are supporting the Congress’s UPA-II from outside and the JD(S) tacitly. See the irony. Three protagonists Bihar’s Nitish, UP’s Mulayam and Karnataka’s Gowda electoral fortunes seem shaky. Modi is making in-roads into the JD(U)’s Chief captive Maha Dalits vote-banks being one himself, post Muzaffarnagar riots the SP supremo’s political weightage has plunged  and Yedyurappa’s return to BJP along-with Congress firmly in the saddle in Karnataka has diminished JD(S) netting high returns.

Yet, the Front gives them some talking points to convince their vote-banks they still count, in the hope that they could play ‘King makers’ post poll to “protect secularism and prevent communal Modi” from coming to power. Sad epitaph for a group whose leaders rest their laurels on being the champions of the backward classes which comprise 52 per cent of the population,

Moreover, it boggles one how this Front will sell itself to the voter given that an alliance does not benefit any of its constituents. How can the JD(S) get advantage from Bihar’s JD(U) in Karnataka or Orissa’s Patnaik prove beneficial for Mulayam in UP and Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK be Assam’s AGP lucky mascot?

Also, how are seat sharing talks possible without anointing who will be the numero uno? Only the Left parties are pliable but might not garner enough numbers in West Bengal and Kerala.

Besides, leaders are chary to confess that no Third Front Government is possible without either the BJP or Congress supporting it. Since all proclaim to be secular, the communal BJP supporting it is far-fetched. At best the Congress might do so, if Modi fails to garner the numbers or to keep him out.

Pertinently, talks of this new configuration suits the Congress presently as Ajit Singh’s Rashtriya Lok Dal has become inconsequential after Muzaffarnagar and his Jat community is switching to the BJP and the Muslims deeply suspicious of him. The NCP is playing hard-ball in Maharashtra for more seats and the trust deficit with Farooq’s NC is widening, notwithstanding its truce over creation of new administrative units.

Its two big allies, Mamata’s Trinamool and Karunanidhi’s DMK are gone, even smaller ones like the PMK, TRS, IUML and JVM have jumped ship. Other than Lalu Yadav's RJD and Paswan’s LJP in Bihar, none is seeking Rahul out. The perception is fast gaining ground that the Congress is only fighting to somehow contain Modi’s rising numbers and limit its own downslide to a respectable three digit figure.

Further, given Southern Empress Jayalalithaa’s mercurial temperament it could lead to political spasms, sooner than later. She could well do a repeat of her chithee aayee hai drama keeping BJP on tender-hooks during Vajpayee’s Prime Ministership in 1998 or ally with Northern Empress Sonia and cause another storm in a tea-cup in the tenuous Front as in 1996. Already, the AIADMK has advanced her name for the Prime Ministership.

Mulayam too is trumpeting his own name. His argument? If Deve Gowda and weightless Gujral could become Prime Minister, why can't he? Patnaik and Nitish are not behind which will make it difficult for the proposed front to remain together.

What these permutations and combinations mean is that for all the Third Front's claims of opposing the two national Parties, the lines will remain open between the regional leaders and the Congress and the BJP - if only because the conflicting objectives of 10 or 12 regional parties will prove difficult to reconcile.

The tussle is not whether the new avatar allies with the BJP-led NDA or Congress’s UPA. It is not even a question of forgive and forget. What it once again drives home is the sad state of our polity. All splitting hairs over hair-raising splits, proving that our netas are as slippery as the Banana Split ice-cream. Whereby, the paper tigers all want to run away with the crown.

Worse, in these artificially made alignments, we are persuaded to believe that ends justify the means. Alas, so caught up in the verbose of one-upmanship are all that in the run-up to the polls none stops to think and ponder the implications of their actions. What matters is where this trail will lead.

The voters need to remember an old Chinese saying: “One is to build one’s own reputation, like a mountain and stand on it. The other is to dig pits for everyone else to fall into, so as to appear the only one without fault.” The Congress, BJP and the Third Front stand accused. What gives? ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)