Round The World
New Delhi, 22 January 2014
India’s Ballistic Missile Ability
AGNI IV & AGNI V BIG BOOST
By Prof. Arvind Kumar
Department of Geopolitics and
International Relations
India seems to be
improving its delivery systems of all ranges through conducting ballistic
missile tests. Indeed, it has demonstrated to the rest of the world its
consistent improvement in the payload and the range of the ballistic missile. Alongside,
the country has conducted its second-most ambitious nuclear missile in the intermediate
range called Agni-IV with a range of roughly 4,000 km.
Importantly, it needs to be emphasized that after the test, India announced
that Agni IV is ready for induction. And that the third test of Agni V would be
done in the later part of the year.
It is noteworthy that both the missiles Agni IV and Agni V
would provide the country with credible nuclear deterrence against China as such requirements are essential for India because
of its articulation of threat perceptions.
Undoubtedly, Agni IV’s success has boosted the country’s confidence
in its defence preparedness especially at a time when China has been prompting and provoking India across the
border. The two-stage Agni IV missile will give the country’s armed forces the
requisite operational flexibility to tackle a wide range of scenarios and cover
all vital areas of strategic interests.
Notably, the 17-tonne Agni-IV incorporates
several new technologies in navigation, propulsion, avionics and other areas. The
improvements in the guidance and control have been significant contributions in
the overall performance of the Agni IV missile.
It has the potential to maneouver, correct and guide itself
during in-flight disturbances. The missile also has the capability to hit
accurately and precisely because of the improvements made in the ring laser
gyro-based inertial navigation system (RINS) and supported by very reliable
redundant micro-navigation system (MINGS).
The launching of Agni V and its successes has made India
proud not only in terms of boosting its existing nuclear deterrent capability vis-à-vis China but also in terms of its
advances made in the delivery system technology. It reflects the overall
development in payload and range capability and is the longest range Inter
Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) in the country’s inventories of delivery
systems.
Unfortunately,
the lack of authentic telemetry data in the public domain about the missile’s
technical features and characteristics except the range and payload does not
allow anyone to assess the consistency in terms of the range and payload. It
requires a technical validation from independent sources to be largely accepted
as a major breakthrough in India’s
ballistic missile capability.
The
reports that the Agni V trajectory during the launch confirmed that it has excellent
results of the missile’s maneouverability terminal guidance system which requires
elaboration and technical assessments.
The
desire to have almost all the categories (short, medium, intermediate and
inter-continental range) of ballistic missiles was felt by India because
of its threat perception and the changing geo-political and geo-strategic
developments in the Southern Asian region.
The
country’s nuclear doctrine centres mostly on its minimum credible nuclear
deterrent posture and no-first use policy. This means that India will
acquire a modest capability which would include both nuclear weapons and
delivery systems based on its articulation of threat perceptions.
Besides,
the Government has formally stated that it would not be the first one to
initiate a nuclear strike in any case of eventuality and has opted for a second
strike nuclear capability. It is a well known fact that both land-based and air-based
assets are highly vulnerable to a first strike or decapitating strike, where
the objective of the adversary would always be to wipe out all the major
nuclear installations including command and control centres.
Consequently,
under such circumstances, the possession of sea-based assets would only provide
with the retaliatory capability. Hence, India’s possession of sea-based
assets including submarine launched ballistic missiles and the nuclear powered
submarines has always been crucial and significant.
Further,
the country’s growing ballistic missile capability can only be seen in the
context of current strategic landscape. Unfortunately, India’s immediate neighborhood has never been in
cooperation or friendliness mode and is surrounded by hostile adversaries, mainly
Pakistan and China.
Significantly,
the pace at which strategic modernization has been taking place mainly in China and its covert and sometimes overt
collusion with Pakistan
is not only phenomenal but also very disturbing and irritating for our national
security calculus.
If
one articulates India’s
threat perception, it can be said that we have more immediate problems with Pakistan than China in the real sense. However, the
country’s continuing problems with Beijing
can never be undermined. Hence, in the prevailing situations, there is a
distinct possibility that New Delhi
would be growing both militarily and in terms of acquiring strategic assets
where delivery systems become a crucial and significant component.
The
evolution of India’s
ballistic missile programme and capability in a large part has been some sort
of a response to China’s
capabilities. It must be reiterated here that the country’s ballistic missile
programme is absolutely de-linked from the civilian space programme.
Remember,
we initiated the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme (IGMDP) in
1983 with the sole aim of achieving self sufficiency in military missile
production and development. The IGMDP comprised five different elements and
systems: the Agni series of medium, intermediate
and now inter-continental range ballistic missiles (MRBM, IRBM and ICBM), Prithvi series of short range ballistic
missiles (SRBMs), the Trishul short
range surface to air missile (SAM), the Akash
medium range surface to air missiles, and the Nag anti-tank guided missile.
It
needs to be highlighted that the IGMDP in addition to a number of other defence
projects is being managed by the Defence Research & Development
Organisation (DRDO) which functions as the nodal agency for the execution of
major development programmes of relevance to the Defence Ministry through
integration of research, development, testing and production facilities with
the national scientific institutions, public sector companies and other
agencies.
The
Defence Research & Development Laboratory (DRDL) located in the Defence
Research Complex at Kanchanbagh and the Research Centre Imarat (RCI) at the
same location in Hyderabad
has been responsible for the development of our advanced missile technologies.
The Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL) located also at Hyderabad has been integrating the missile
components and assembly.
It
needs to be underscored that both Agni-IV and Agni-V have the capability to
reach mainland China and now
has the capability to target both its political and commercial capital (Beijing and Shanghai).
Pertinently,
the assessment of international security environment suggests that India will not agree to forego its strategic
options unless the same approach is applied to the existing international
security architecture including the United States,
Russia, and China.
It
is most likely that the country might plan to build indigenously a sizeable
number of Agni-IV and Agni-V. The range and payload of both would certainly
improve in due course of time.
Undeniably,
India’s ballistic missile
capability in the current situation has really helped the country’s nuclear
deterrent credible and it is anticipated that we would surely take China’s total
force structure into account while developing a strategy to enhance its
existing capabilities.
All
in all, it is most likely that the country would be operationalising both its
Agni IV and Agni V capability in due course by conducting few more tests and
then deploying it may be by 2016. This would keep improving its capability in
all the three stages, which would allow a better maneuverability.
The
Agni V has a capacity to carry a nuclear warhead weighing over one tonne and
this capability will also be improving during the operationalisation. Clearly, India has now
been inducted into the select group of nation states which have the ICBM
capability. ------ INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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