Round The World

New Delhi, 26 November 2013

Iran-P5+1 N-Deal

CAUTIOUS APPROACH CRUCIAL

By Prof. Arvind Kumar

(Dept of Geopolitics & Intl Relations, Manipal Univ)

The great hype which has been created after the achievement of the major breakthrough in the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 -- United States, France, Russia, Britain, China and Germany-- needs to be understood in the context of its relevance and significance to the growing understanding that Iran will move away from nuclear weaponisation. The interim agreement certainly conveys that the US and Iran will heave a sigh of relief. Such understanding will help in easing tensions and to a greater extent the bilateral probable US-Iran conflict is no more imminent in the foreseeable future.                                    

The nuclear deal has been seen both in the contexts of its merits and criticisms. In the context of larger interests of Iran, the deal will certainly see that the sanctions are waived in limited manner for the next six months. However, the commitment made by Iran with regard to enrichment of uranium is being taken as giving up its options by the hardliners. At the same time, the Iranian announcement of the interim agreement came together along with a declaration on its plans to construct two more power reactors at Bushehr.

It must be emphasised here that Iran would require falling in line with the US expectations and ultimately giving up the strategic ambitions in the foreseeable future. The next six months are going to be the litmus test for Iran about its intent and fundamental goals. Such intentions and fundamental goals will provide negotiators to evolve the terms and conditions for the complete resolution to the Iranian nuclear question.

Importantly, Iran has agreed to halt enrichment at 5 per cent and dilute all higher-enriched material to below that level, thus making it a difficult task for it to bring back all its highly enriched uranium back to the same percentage enrichment. It has also committed itself not to add or upgrade centrifuges and limit production to repairs only. This is certainly a significant departure from its earlier policies. The other commitments such as not increasing stockpile of 3.5 per cent enriched uranium and not commissioning it or fuel the Arak heavy water reactor are pointers for quantum shift in Tehran’s approach towards its strategic thinking.

Under the deal, Tehran has also committed to halt fuel assembly for Arak. It will therefore neither transfer heavy water or fuel to the reactor site nor construct a reprocessing plant. If Iran has committed not to construct the reprocessing plant then it means it has given up its plutonium options. The questions which are being raised are mostly relating to whether Iran has already acquired the nuclear deterrent capability covertly and hence it is now on the path of a promise away from its larger strategic goals.

The nuclear deal also makes it clear that Iran shall provide the IAEA access to centrifuge and rotor assembly and storage facilities, access to uranium mines and mills and also provide the IAEA with Arak reactor designs. The other highly intrusive part of the deal has been that the IAEA shall install surveillance cameras at Natanz and Fordow and have a daily access.

Moreover, if at every step of its nuclear programme there is going to be so much of transparency shown by Iran, then it would certainly be difficult for it to develop nuclear weapons. The big question whether Iran will be able to cope up with the emerging threat perceptions therefore remain to be answered in this context.

As part of quid pro quo, Iran will be granted limited relief totaling $7 billion. There will not be any new sanctions imposed during the period of the deal. There will also be waiver of sanctions on gold, precious metals, petrochemicals and auto sectors. These waivers will be there only for the limited period of six months. The future of nuclear negotiations mainly lies with the adherence of the commitments made in the agreement.

It must be argued that the interim agreement is tilted towards the P5+1 in general and the US in particular. The US, through the IAEA will have all the information about Iran’s Arak reactor. In return, Iran will only get a miniscule deal of $7 billion of relief over six months. It is nothing in comparison to the $100 billion in frozen Iranian assets globally or the $4 billion per month loss in oil revenue. It needs to be reiterated here that ultimately the US will find ways to maximise its interests and use the interim deal in its own favour.

Unfortunately, the deal is silent on Iran’s other nuclear facilities such as Parchin. A number of areas may have been left out deliberately for the second round of negotiations after the completion of the first phase.  However, if the interim agreement is followed in the true sense of the term, it may provide amicable means to end all the impasse and crisis in the region. The larger ramifications will not only impact Israel, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, but India too.  

The waiver of sanctions on Iran will open a new chapter where it would reflect its priorities in enhancing its trade interests in the field of petrochemicals, shipbuilding, infrastructure and insurance. India will have to pursue and make efforts in exploiting the situation and make it attractive for Iran’s preferred destination. Undoubtedly, the nuclear deal would be largely in the global interest. Iran has to be brought in to the mainstream of all trade and commerce activities of the world. The international community cannot afford to keep Iran isolated.

The future of nuclear negotiations and the hype created by the US would very much depend on the behavioural pattern of the P5+1. The interpretation of the interim agreement from both sides would again require a semblance of thinking, as it has a varying scope, which ultimately will lead to nowhere in terms of the real output. Indeed, the international community in general and India in particular shall wait and see how things shape up in the next six months. It is, certainly, not the time to celebrate, but very cautiously watch the developments and then assess the net gains for peace and stability. ---INFA

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