Events & Issues
New
Delhi, 21 October 2013
New IPCC
Report
PREPARE
FOR WARMER CONDITIONS
By Dhurjati
Mukherjee
Environmental concerns are a subject
of much discussion and debate not just among experts and policy makers but even
large sections of the population. It is in this context that the just released
report of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
titled ‘Climate Change 2013: Physical
Science Basis’, as part of the fifth assessment report, has evoked great
interest as it particularly comes out with some interesting revelations about
India and South Asia.
The findings show that the northern
part of the sub-continent is likely to witness winter temperature rise up to
0.4 to 0.8 degrees Celsius during the period 2016 to 2035 (compared to the
1986-2005 average) and 2-3 degrees Celsius during 2046-65. Thus, it is quite
evident that North India would heat up more
than the southern parts of the country in the coming years.
There is also a strong hint that the
duration of the rainy season would increase due to early onset of the monsoon. Indications
are already there that the monsoon has been unusual --continuing till October
and, as such, there is every possibility that the quantity of rainfall would
increase steadily during the later part of this century.
In fact, for entire South Asia, the
technical summary of the report clearly points at “enhanced summer monsoon
precipitation and increased rainfall on the coasts of the Bay of Bengal and the
Arabian Sea”. This is already being felt in
many places of India
and the growing humidity almost across the country in the past few years have
made life and the working conditions quite difficult. The impact of rising temperature,
increase in rainfall and other attendant factors on the region’s agriculture is
thus likely to be considered in the report on impact, adaptation and
vulnerability to be out sometime in March next year.
Further, the IPCC had raised the
likelihood of human influence on global warming from “very likely” in its 2007
report to “extremely likely” in the present one – moving from 90 per cent sure
to 95 per cent. However, compared to the fourth assessment report the present
one tones down its temperature rise projections for the end of the century from
the earlier range of 1.1 to 6.4 deg C to 3 to 4.8 deg C. But the change has
been because of two ranges, which were not comparable based on different set of
scenarios.
However, global warming had resulted
in an average sea level rise of 19 cm since 1901 and an increase in surface
temperature by 0.85 degrees C between 1980 and 2012. Scientists have predicted
that the sea level would continue to rise at a rate faster than has been
observed over the past 40 years.
According to the report, “the carbon
dioxide concentrations have increased by 40 per cent since pre-industrialized
times, primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use
change emission (such as deforestation)”. The concentrations of methane and
nitrous oxide have also increased considerably.
Worse, the report has pointed out
that the last three decades have been “successively warmer” at the earth’s
surface than any preceding period since 1850 in the northern hemisphere i.e.
1983-2010 was likely the warmest period. While the oceans are absorbing 90 per
cent of the energy accumulated by the planet’s climate system between 1971 and
2010, land absorbed only about 5 per cent of the heat.
Interestingly, the report shows a
relative slowdown in surface warming between 1998 and 2012 compared to 1951 and
1998, but scientists attribute this to a slight dip in solar activity over the
past decade. The report clarified that “due to natural variability, trends
based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do
not in general reflect long-term climate trends”.
Thus, it can easily be stated that
15 years is too short a period for arriving at any definite conclusions. While it
is believed that a section of Western policy makers and scientists may take the
opportunity to highlight this part of the present report, saying the concerns
being raised over climate change are not that serious, it would be a grave
mistake as it would impact the ongoing seriousness and attention on environment.
There is already much concern about
the impact of climate change and its impact on countries of the Third World,
specially those belonging to Asia and Africa.
The developed world has been pressing emerging nations to cut emissions of
short-lived gases while the latter has been demanding the West undertake more
cuts in its Co2 levels. The issue is likely to come up again at the policy
makers meet in Warsaw later this November to prepare
the agenda for a new global climate deal in Paris in 2015.
Insofar as India is
concerned, the rising pollution levels have remained almost unchecked with
rampant increase in air, water and sound pollution, rising sea levels and
extreme weather events in spite of certain measures taken by the Government and
particularly the Ministry of Environment. The cities are getting warmer all across
the globe and in India,
which has also been confirmed in another study of the University of Hawaii.
Making predictions on the climate of 10 Indian cities, it noted that Mumbai and
Chennai would be the first to reach the “point of no return” as early as 2034.
In the second scenario, where
concerted efforts are made to cut emissions, Mumbai is predicted to reach its
tipping point by 2051 followed by Chennai a year later and then Delhi in 2081. The years
mentioned against these cities indicate an entirely new and hotter climate
regime.
Meanwhile, the high pollution levels
in Indian cities have been authenticated by a forecast of a panel of experts of
World Health Organization’s International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC),
which in its recent survey, classified air pollution, including tiny inhalable
particles called particulate matter, in the same category of proven carcinogens
as tobacco. As is well known, the main sources of outdoor air pollution are
vehicle emissions, thermal power plants, industrial and agricultural
emissions.
Additionally, a Yale University
study released early this year claimed that India had the worst air quality
among 132 countries assessed. Other studies, based on mathematical models,
found that India’s
megacities, specially Delhi
and Kolkata, are among the world’s most polluted cities and hence have the
highest levels of premature deaths from cardiovascular diseases, respiratory
illness or lung cancer linked to air pollution.
Undeniably, it is therefore imperative
that special efforts be made to identify and check climate change impacts on
human health, water resources, coastal areas and agriculture as this is vital
not only for the large segment of the country’s population but also for many
other countries of the Third World. Climate change abatement policies have to
be followed vigorously to offset the consequences of global warming. In fact,
there is need to formulate programmes and strategies for effective promotion
and implementation in specific areas where it is needed and could be of use.
Let’s remember the idiom--A stitch in time will save nine. ---INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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