Round The World
New Delhi, 8 October 2013
Iran’s Strategic Assets
SANCTIONS A BOON IN
DISGUISE!
By Prof Arvind Kumar
(Dept. of Geopolitics & Intl
Relations, Manipal Univ)
Notwithstanding
the buzz of Iran trying to
strike a deal with the US
over its nuclear programme, Tehran
may not be in a tearing hurry. Rather, the technological and economic sanctions
imposed against it have been proved to be a boon in disguise for the Iranians. It
has been able to develop uranium enrichment plant and many other technologies
relevant and important for its growing strategic assets. It has also developed
two-stage and three stage rockets and can launch them one after the other.
Indeed,
the successful test firing of a new medium range missile over the years by Iran and the launch
of its unmanned satellite into earth orbit signals the country’s overall
strategic ambitions. Iran
has always been in the news for its ongoing nuclear and ballistic missile
programmes for several years. The developments in the field of science &
technology and strengthening the R&D base in the Islamic Republic have
always been a matter of debate and concern for the United States. Recall also that in
December 2006, the United Nations Security Council has adopted three sanctions
resolutions prohibiting States from providing Iran with technologies that could
be used to advance its strategic assets.
Iran became the ninth nation in
achieving the prowess in the field of advances made in science by launching
‘Omid’ (hope) satellite into earth orbit by using its indigenously built launch
vehicle ‘Safir’ (emissary). Former Soviet Union
had created history by launching ‘Sputnik’ in 1957, which marked the onset of
advances made in space and satellite technology. The US followed suit by launching its
satellite ‘Explorer 1’. France in 1966 launched ‘Asterix’, Japan launched
‘Osumi’ in 1970, China in 1970 launched ‘Dong Fang Hong 1’, UK launched
‘Prospero X-3’ in 1971, India in 1980 launched ‘Rohini’ satellite into the
earth’s orbit and Israel also achieved such technological feat in 1988 with ‘Ofeq
1’.
Undoubtedly,
Iran
has launched its own satellite after several years of efforts. The ‘Safir’ booster
has been developed into two and three stage configurations with the first
stage. The launch raised international concerns regarding the progress Iran has made
in its ballistic missile programme. The overall concern has been that if such
potential exists with Iran
then it might try and acquire an inter-continental ballistic missiles in the
future. The technologies that Iran
has been demonstrating in recent years are remarkable.
It
is now obvious that Iran
has demonstrated its improved proficiency with several types of rocket
subsystems as well as the improvement of many other important and relevant
technologies over the years. It must be reiterated here that in addition to Iran’s further
improvement and development of rocket staging, it has acquired a more
sophisticated rocket propellant capability. Iran has also been able to achieve
an increase in the engine power with the ‘Safir’ launch. The technology that
has been used to get “Omid” satellite into earth’s orbit is the one that could
also be used to propel long range ballistic missiles.
The
technological community has, however, doubted the technical parameters and has
questioned as to how two-staged missile based on ‘scud type technology’ could
have placed a satellite in orbit. It has been argued that much improved thrust
would be required for putting satellite into orbit perhaps using cryogenic
fuels such as liquid oxygen. It is well known that the former Soviet
Union originally developed a short range scud missile during the
1950s. A large number of countries acquired these types of missiles from it. Such
missiles were used to develop more sophisticated and advanced missile system by
many countries.
It
seems highly likely that Iran’s
space launch vehicle programme is closely related and linked with its ongoing
ballistic missile programme. Many independent estimates and assessments suggest
that the first stage of the ‘Safir’ is a slightly modified version of its
medium range Sahab-3 missile. It has also made it clear that Iran has the
potential of making long range missiles. The ‘Safir’ launch has a number of
military applications despite the fact that the satellite was small and
lightweight compared with a nuclear warhead.
It
has been widely accepted that Iran
could use its space launch vehicle programme as a technical base for developing
intermediate and intercontinental range ballistic missiles. The rationale for
Iranian to have a robust ballistic missile programme obviously has been rooted
in its perceived threat perceptions. Prior to 1991and the first Gulf War, the main
threat to Iran was Saddam
Hussein’s Iraq.
The Iranians began developing their missile programme at the height of the
Iran-Iraq war after Saddam began launching missiles at Iran.
The
only thing the Iranians could use in response during that point in time was
Scud, which they had received from Libya. The threat perception of Iran has
changed since the Gulf War. It is generally believed in Iran that the United
States has replaced Iraq as their pre-eminent threat.
In the current context, the Iranian threat scenario seems to be a massive US military action against Iran aided by the US
allies in the region including the Gulf States
and Israel.
It
is against the backdrop of the threat perception, that Iran would most
likely like to invest and concentrate on achieving precision-strike munitions,
naval anti-ship weapons, ballistic missiles of long ranges, space programmes
and nuclear weapons programmes. Currently, Iran
has the most intensive ballistic missile programme in the Third
World with constantly increasing and improving the payload and
ranges. The successful test firing of a new medium range missile by Iran over the years has increased the degree of
the US
concern. It has added to the existing concerns raised by the US, which
signaled the probable and possible fears of missile capabilities.
The
‘Sejil-2’ is a two stage ballistic missile and works on solid fuel. It has been
estimated that the missile will have roughly a range of 2000 km. The range has
certainly put all the European countries on Tehran’s radar screen. Iran already had the capability to target Israel. However,
it has been officially maintaining that its missile programme is merely for
defence and the space programme is meant exclusively for scientific and
surveillance purposes.
There
is no doubt in saying that on the one hand it was certainly a technological
feat for Iran
in terms of S&T prowess. The ‘Omid’ satellite launch was mainly a symbolic
accomplishment because of the size of the satellite. Launching of a satellite
and test firing a missile of intermediate range were certainly major
accomplishments after years of delays, failures and technological sanctions.
The developments in Iran
with regard to S&T will certainly make an attempt to improve the
capabilities of the existing strategic assets. It can only look ahead---INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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