Political Diary

New Delhi, 24 August 2013

India-Pak-China Tango

PEACE ROAD CALLED DISTRUST

By Poonam I Kaushish

Ever wonder why a big deal is made of the sour, stale and bitter Indo-Pak ties.  Why there is an over-drive on Hindi-Chini-bhai-bhai? All in the hopelessly futile hope-against-hope that a rainbow will spring out of the thunderous, dark clouds billowing across the latest security situation in India’s neighborhood. Vitiated by Pakistan’s daily incursions across Kashmir’s Line of Control (LoC) since February and muddied by China increasingly spreading its “super power” tentacles in Ladakh and Arunachal.

Before you accuse me of making a mountain out of a molehill, the harsh truth is that grave dangers lurk on our Western and Eastern borders. Take Pakistan since the beheading of an Indian soldier in February down killing of five jawans to yesterday’s firing across the LoC Pakistan’s ISI’s elite Special Services Group “Musa company” has been violating the border ceasefire killing ruthlessly.

Questionably, how many more incidents will it take for New Delhi to realize that its appeasement policy is getting us nowhere with our recalcitrant neighbour? Hasn’t the time come for New Delhi to comprehend that Islamabad refuses to give up its confrontational mindset of waging a “thousand wars”? Will Sharif’s third stint as the Prime Minister be a harbinger of a new beginning in India-Pakistan relations?  What use a dialogue when Islamabad has not delivered on India's demands on 26/11?

Regrettably, our leaders continue to wallow in the false belief that wars are born in the minds of men ---- won by waving the white flag and refuse to re-draft its Pak policy. Notwithstanding Opposition pressure which forced Manmohan Singh to cancel his breakfast meeting with his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif on the sidelines of the UN meet in New York next month, the PMO and South Block willy-nilly continue to hold steadfast that dialogue with Islamabad is the best option

Indeed, India's approach has been incoherent over the past two years, in fact bankrupt since 26/11. Undoubtedly, the polity’s powerlessness to deal with hard targets strongly has given us the soft State image whereby India’s security farce continues.

See how Let Chief Hafeez Saeed brazenly lead the Eid prayers  in Lahore early this month and continues to spew venom against India even as Pakistan’s Establishment scoffs at New Delhi’s hard rhetoric about crushing terrorism which ends in a whimper.

For the ruling troika seeped in military tradition along-with its jihadist proxies, the ‘core’ issue of Kashmir is an article of faith. In fact, the very creation of Pakistan rests on the foundations of Kashmir. From Bhutto’s “bleeding India with a 1000 cuts,” down Kargil inclusions to Mumbai’s 26/11 deep distrust and lack of confidence is apparent between the warring neighbours ravaged by history.

Undoubtedly, New Delhi’s hunger to build bridges with Islamabad appears to have blinded the Government to the web of deceit spun by its duplicitous neighbour. In this troika of power, Sharif has to play second fiddle to Big Daddies Army and ISI. Thus, even as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh trudges the lonely peace road he should realize that good intentions alone cannot transform ties.

Notably, Indo-China ties had come under a cloud when Beijing stationed troops on a desolate but strategic plateau in Eastern Ladakh. The 23-days standoff revived distrust for China in strategic circles with some demanding stringent action. Then diplomacy won the day as after several rounds of talks, Beijing decided to return to their original positions. Only to then intrude into Arunachal Pradesh

It needs no rocket science to underscore that the distrust continues, never mind the Chindia’ synergy during Chinese Premier Li Kequiang’s visit recently. Ties are bedevilled by difference over the length and ambit of the boundary, incursion in Ladakh and Arunachal, claiming the latter as part of its territory, it regards Kashmir as disputed ‘territory’ between India and Pakistan, stand on Tibet, management of trans-boundary Rivers, trade imbalance etc.

More worrisome is China’s “more than normal interest” in the Indian Ocean region and its “string of pearls” around India is finding firmer anchorage. Starting at Hainan, China’s southern-most province with its submarine bay; it has a listening post at Coco islands, port facilities in Myanmar; Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka, Chittagong in Bangladesh to Pakistan’s Gwadar on the Arabian Sea.

Further, it intends appending this string to the continental mass of Tibet, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Already a direct highway and waterway links China’s southern Yunan province to Myanmar’s Yangon port providing direct access to the Bay of Bengal. In effect, Beijing has surrounded India around its frontiers, except Bhutan where we remain the favoured partner.

Add to this the Pakistan factor which has an important bearing on India-China relations.  Recall, Li flew to Islamabad from New Delhi underscoring its tilt for “all-weather friend” where both sides signed another accord on development of Gwadar port. Thus, China intends creating a permanent geographical wedge between India and Pakistan, along-with having access to Western shores.

Another issue that has plagued ties is the management of trans-boundary Rivers thanks to China’s plans to build dams on the Brahmaputra. Even as New Delhi has time and again maintained that the proposal to construct the dams in Tibet would affect water flow to India, Beijing continues to assert that it was just run-of-the-river project that would not hold water.

Consequently, Beijing poses a serious challenge in the short and medium term. Not only will China’s belligerence towards India increase but could also pit them against each other. It has consistently followed a ‘contain India’ strategy since the 1960s. In the long-term Beijing’s game-plan is to gain Asian supremacy and make its neighbours in South-east Asia and South China Sea, increasingly dependent on it, militarily and economically.

Time now for Raisina Hill to shed its 'don’t-rock-the-boat-avoid-confrontation' policy, stop deluding itself with the naïve notion that one can preserve peace by exuding goodwill. Forgetting that talks to improve trade and cultural ties are not instruments to address terrorism from Pakistan and trespassing by China. It might win New Delhi accolades but it also tempts the aggressor to be more belligerent. Given that India-Pak-China ties is characterized by competition, tension, endless talks and limited cooperation on issues of mutual concern.

New Delhi cannot afford to take any chances with what constitutes India’s national security and strategic interests and pursue them doggedly. Craft a long-term Pakistan and China policy that combines open dialogue with diplomatic pressure. Simply inter-acting, is not a solution. We need to take the bull by the horns and hammer out differences across the table.

Irrefutably, time for out-of-the-box thinking and guts. Towards that end Manmohan Singh should take a leaf from ex-US President Nixon book The Real War:  “Nations live or die by the way they respond to the particular challenges they face. The time when a nation most craves ease may be the moment when it can least afford to let down its guard. The nation that survives is the one that rises to meet that moment: that has the wisdom to recognize the threat and the will to turn it back, and that does so before it is too late.” Will he rise to the occasion? ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)