People And Their Problems

New Delhi, 18 August 2007

Global Warming

GRAVE THREAT TO INDIA

By Radhakrishna Rao

For many years now the phenomenon of global warming, caused by the rapid build up of green house gases owing to the increasing use of fossil fuels in the industrial and transport sectors, has been the topic of international environmental debate. Attracting much attention of political leaders around the world.

In fact, global warming has been blamed for the scorching dry spell in parts of Europe as well as heavy rain and flooding in Latin America. In parts of India there has been a sharp increase in the incidence of death caused by the intense heat waves.

The latest report from the Indian meteorologists is that global warming continues to exert impact on climatic patterns including rainfall and mean temperature in the country. An analysis done by Pune's Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) go to show that these changes are likely to be more pronounced in the years ahead. As things stand now, a significant warming trend has been observed along the western coast, central India, interior peninsula and in the north-east.

Significantly, the studies also suggest the rapid receding of the Himalayan glaciers. Environmental researchers hold the view that the drastic disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers could have serious consequences for the thickly-populated Gangetic plains which are watered by the Himalaya-origin rivers. This trend has also been reflected in the United Nations Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

According to the Chairman of IPCC and head of TERI (The Tata Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi) R.K.Pachuri, “it is the poorest of the poor who will be impacted the most by global warming. In many regions, areas with a high density population like the Ganga-Brahmaputra delta are most vulnerable to climate change.”

Adding, “thus, every country must have the infrastructure and the early warning systems to adapt to climate changes and be less dependent on fossil fuels and more on renewable energy”. Apparently, the rapidly growing use of fossil fuels is considered a major causative factor behind the rising trend of global warming.

According to Assam-based environmental scientist Dulal Goswami, “the direct implication of the temperature rise would see an exaggerated increase in flooding and landslides in the lower reaches of the Himalayas .We are in the downstream region and will have to bear the maximum brunt in case of the glaciers melting due to global warming”.

This is corroborated by research studies carried out by the Chinese scientists. These reveal that north-east India could become vulnerable to flooding with snow-fed rivers including the Brahmaputra overflowing due to the melting of the Himalayan glaciers.

For the recently witnessed rapid melting of the Himalayan glaciers, Chinese scientists blame the shooting up of temperature in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau. “Quicker melting of glaciers may also have the long term impact upon the rivers in both India and China and trigger droughts,” states Xu Xiangde, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.

Moreover, the IITM researchers have found that the mean temperature could go up by about 5 degree Celsius in many part of the country by the end of this century. And, in turn, this drastic shift in the temperature profile could lead to more intense heat waves, more concentrated rainfall and flooding. And at the same time accentuating the droughts and dry spells.

There is also a feeling that the rising temperature levels could adversely affect the Indian economy in a variety of ways. Though at the moment it is difficult to quantify the losses. For example, a study by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) in New Delhi has pointed out that the water levels in the rivers of north India could come down by 20 per cent in another five decades.

Further, agricultural production too is likely to be hit by the fluctuations in the weather, thanks to global warming. As it stands, small farmers have reported a perceptible decline in the wheat and rice yield due to the abnormal shooting up of the temperature in many parts of India. Similarly, the nursery loss due to inundation and coastal erosion along the Indian coast are contributing to a declining fish landing.

Additionally, computer simulations show that an increase in temperature normally leads to a decline in the yield. Thus, it is presumed that a two degree increase in the temperature could cause around a 15 per cent yield decline in the wheat and rice crops. Sadly, the poor and marginal farmers are going to be worst affected by this increase in temperature.

In fact, over the last two decades the heat wave has been increasing in intensity in many parts of India resulting in serious consequences for the people. Not only that. It is leading to increasing incidence of epidemics such as malaria and dengue in many parts of India. Needless to say drastic changes in the weather conditions is known to be congenial to the growth of the mosquitoes.

That apart, the good side is that the per capita emission of carbon dioxide from India is among the lowest in the world. In this context, J.Srinivasan, Chairman of the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS) at Bangalore’s Indian Institute of Science (IISc) asserted, “We are already committed to a considerable warming even if we reduce our carbon dioxide emissions”.

The well known agricultural scientist Dr.K.P.Prabhakaran Nair advocates the increasing use of renewable energy sources to bring down the incidence of carbon dioxide emission. Further, he asserts, “For agriculture to grow it is high time the focus is shifted to organic farming, away from the chemical-intensive agriculture. But, India has to do it in an economically feasible manner”.

Incidentally, India is among the invitees of all G-8 summit meetings to discuss and evolve strategies to mitigate the phenomenon of global warming. What kind of steps India would initiate to minimize the emission of green house gases is to be seen.

Meanwhile, there are also report that global warming is also causing havoc in the mammal world, pushing many species to the brink of extinction. Also with the forest floors and timberlands growing more parched, the wildfires in Indonesia, western USA and inland Alaska have been increasing. Wildlife biologists have also expressed the concern over the possibility of the polar bears being threatened by the vanishing sea ice. ----- INFA

(Copyright India News and Feature Alliance)