Round The World

New Delhi, 9 July 2013

China hosts India-Pak Together

IT TAKES THREE TO TANGO!

By Shreya Upadhyay

Research Scholar, School of International Studies, JNU

It takes two to tango, but China has shown that it is equally comfortable with a diplomatic threesome. Beijing hosted arch rivals India and Pakistan simultaneously recently. And strategically worked with both on similar issues from different perspectives and dictated its terms on bilateral issues of engagement.

During exchanges with Defence Minister Antony, the Chinese side agreed that defence exchanges were an important facet of India-China strategic and cooperative partnership for peace and prosperity. No matter a PLA General’s hawkish warning New Delhi against “stirring up the boundary dispute” overshadowed Antony’s visit.

On the other hand, Beijing dished out billions dollars worth agreements , including announcing two major projects running through Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (PoK), notwithstanding long- standing Indian reservations on this. To top it all, was by the hawkish stance of a PLA General.  

Notably, Beijing states this peculiar convergence between diverging interests is coincidental. Yet in one stroke, China made it clear to both that it was not ready to play ball with one at other’s cost.

Apart from Beijing’s own deep economic interests in the sub-Continent, the US pivot to Asia-Pacific and the uncertain regional security scenario post NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, has forced the new Chinese leadership to intensify its engagement with both India and Pakistan.

Moreover, both neighbours have attached considerable value to improving strategic ties with Beijing over the years. While China and Pakistan enjoy an all-weather partnership for half a century, Beijing and New Delhi have established strategic cooperative partnership since 2005.  

Significantly, Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has chosen Beijing as his first foreign destination after assuming office in June. His focus being to expand economic and trade ties, strengthening partnership and finalising a trade corridor between the two countries.

Remember, over the years Islamabad has considerably drifted away from Washington particularly after Osama Bin Laden’s Abbottabad killing in 2011. Thus, Pakistan is looking up to China more than ever not only on the strategic front but more importantly to strengthen its ailing economy and fulfil energy needs.

Sharif’s Administration is bound to concentrate on dealing with lack of growth, rising inflation and severe power shortage. Thus, his visit was to fortify bilateral trade links with his entourage attended a Sino-Pakistani Energy Forum in Shanghai and met with the leaders of a power company. Sharif also met with officials of the China Investment Corporation sovereign wealth fund, China Development Bank and China Power Investment Corporation.

Undeniably, the Sino-Pakistan cooperation is now moving from the nuclear weapon-missile domain to strategic transport corridors and communication links. Analysts view Sharif’s visit as aiming a counter-balance US and Indian influence in the region. Indeed crucial in the wake of US drawdown of troops from Afghanistan and India’s growing presence there. 

Earlier this year, Islamabad had authorized Chinese acquisition of Pakistani Gwadar port. China’s ownership of the port is to gain access to the Arabian Sea and Strait of Hormuz, pathways for a significant share of the world's oil. Beijing now wants Pakistani help to build an economic corridor to the southern port city from the China-Pakistan border. 

The visit also witnessed China committing itself to two new projects in Pakistan. The first, an $18 billion economic corridor linking Xinjiang in Western China to Gwadar port on the Arabian Sea. This 820 km-long corridor includes a 200 km tunnel that will run through PoK. The second, laying of a first-ever fibre optic link from China to Rawalpindi, the GHQ of the Pakistan military. The proposed communication link will also pass through PoK. This is bound to have strategic implications for India as well as the region.

Nevertheless, it needs to be understood that Islamabad has nothing concrete to offer Beijing. Sharif desperately needs Chinese economic investment but concerns about Pakistan’s stability have limited Beijing’s economic assistance to Islamabad. On the contrary, Pakistan’s alleged support to the Taliban and other Islamists is a matter of concern for the Chinese Establishment.

China has approximately $3.5 billion in investments in Afghanistan. It expects the Pakistanis to keep the terrorists at bay there. The come-back of the Taliban and its support to the Muslim Uighur separatist groups in the volatile Xinjiang province is worrying Beijing. Also, there have been continuing attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan.  

Obversly, Sino-Indian ties have improved in the last few years even though irritants continue to crop up from time to time. But both countries have been following a twin-track diplomacy wherein they handle political differences diplomatically while continuing to engage with each other economically. Consequently, there is a sharp focus on trade and other multi-lateral issues such as climate change. There is a deep anxiety within Chinese top leadership that India should not become part of any anti-China coalition with Washington. 

During his visit, the first by an Indian Defence Minister in seven years, Antony called for “strategic communication” between the two militaries and the Chinese Premier referred to the two countries as "brothers", a portrayal of the so called Hindi-Chini bhai-bhai rhetoric of the late 1950s. While the official welcome dealt with the need for a stable and positive bilateral relationship, the spoiler came with the Chinese media carrying the far more provocative remarks of the retired PLA general.  

Maj Gen Luo Yuan warned India against provoking the PLA by increasing military deployments at the border area and stir up new trouble. When Indian officials took up the matter with their Chinese counterparts they met with the same predictable, monotonous disclaimer: Luo’s thoughts did not reflect official views.

The remark while not official needs to be viewed in the context of hardliners versus moderates in China and the implications for India.  This fits with the blow-hot-blow-cold policy usually followed by Beijing that has often left Indian officialdom confused and unable to fathom Chinese intentions and in turn affected New Delhi’s policy response to China.  

Despite these reservations it cannot be ignored that frequent visits have worked favourably to mitigate mistrust between the two Administrations to a certain extent. However, what is needed is greater inter-action between the two militaries. Joint military exercises, visits to military facilities and the creation of institutional linkages between military-backed think tanks and universities which can go a long way in upgrading the Sino-India ties.

With China's increasing footprints in South Asia, one has to see how adroitly it manages its security as well as economic interests in the sub-Continent. Clearly, New Delhi needs to sit up and take cognizance of where the Sino-Pakistan nexus is heading and how it might impact India's national security.

Unfortunately, so far our foreign policy pundits have been adept at only playing down threats from the neighbours. Rhetorical embellishments of peace and cooperation sound well in diplomatic tete-e-tete but it is important that India prepares itself for some realist action as and when such a situation is forced on it. ----INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)