Round The World
New
Delhi, 11 June 2013
Cautious
Optimism On Pak
CANNOT
BE FOOLHARDY
By Shreya
Upadhyay
Research Scholar, School of International
Studies, JNU
Pakistani baiters in New Delhi and Washington are
hoping to gain from the recent democratic transition of power in Islamabad.
In fact, India welcomed Nawaz Sharif’s
victory even before the election results were officially declared. Ably
reciprocated by the new Prime Minister who desired that Manmohan Singh attend
his inaugural ceremony.
But the moot point is: Will Sharif’s
third stint as the Prime Minister be a harbinger of a new beginning in
India-Pakistan relations? Undoubtedly, given
the nature of ties which the neighbours have shared in the past, it is
advisable not to jump the gun too soon. Euphoria within policy circles and media
will only lead to unrealistic expectations.
A glimpse of the same has already
been witnessed with tension gripping the Line of Control (LoC) again. Only last
week the Pakistani Army violated the border ceasefire killing one Junior
Commissioned Officer (JCO) in Jammu’s
Poonch district Saujiyan-Mandi sector. That too a day after Sharif voiced his
intent of maintaining good relations with India
and settling all outstanding issues including Kashmir.
Recall, Indo-Pak relations hit a
rough patch after the beheading of an Indian soldier by Pakistani troops in Jammu
and Kashmir, and the fatal attacks on Indian
prisoners Chamel Singh and Sarabjit Singh held in a Pakistani jail. In retaliation, Pakistan
prisoner Sanaullah Ranjay was killed by an inmate in Kashmir’s
high security jail. Islamabad’s
reaction on 2001 Parliament attacker Afzal Guru hanging struck another blow on
ties.
Clearly, the recent LoC incident underscores
the Pakistani Army’s role to limit Nawaz Sharif’s political space and foreign
policy approach. Wherein he is bound to experience a difficult time in managing
a suspicious army, as his relations in the past has not been the most cordial
to say the least.
Pertinently, Sharif was unceremoniously
removed from power in 1999 by a military coup staged by General Parvez
Musharraf for overriding “core interests” of the Army. The present Army Chief
General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, whose dislike for India
is well known, has reportedly advised Sharif to go slow on changes in Pakistan policies towards India and Afghanistan.
Kayani is set to retire on 27th
November till which point status quo is likely to be maintained. Even as he
steps down, there is a fat chance that his successor will have any different
views vis-à-vis India. Indeed, Sharif’s
inner Party circles as well as foreign policy-making institutions too have rendered
the same advice.
Moreover, expecting Nawaz Sharif to
work in a way to assuage India’s
concerns would be over ambitious. It should not be forgotten that in his
earlier stint as Prime Minister, he did little to alter Pakistan’s policy towards India. Vajpayee’s
Lahore bus yatra diplomacy during his leadership
culminated in the Kargil misadventure.
Thus, expectations regarding the new
Administration bringing the 26/11 Pakistani perpetrators to justice or
extraditing Hafiz Saeed to India
seem premature and ill-timed. The same logic applies to feeling that our neighbour
would curtail terrorist activities in India.
Undeniably, what needs to be acknowledged
is Sharif’s announcement that he will not allow
anti-India “speeches to be made by anybody including Hafeez Saab”. But it needs
to be understood that he does not have any control over the militant groups
operating in Kashmir. Therefore, even if his
intentions are sincere, how much will he be able to act on it, is a big
question.
Importantly, the new Administration
has a political advantage as in the last few years the Army’s domestic image
has gone down due to its ineffectiveness to control domestic terrorism and
military operations in the FATA region. Just two days after Sharif assumed
office there was a drone attack killing seven militants in North-West Pakistan.
Sharif has publicly criticised drone
strikes, thereby echoing long held Pakistani complaints that the US campaign
violates national sovereignty. Additionally, some
of the militant groups that were used by the security Establishment to spread
terrorism in India and
manoeuvre the situation in Afghanistan
have now rebelled against the Pakistani
State.
It is obvious that
domestic terrorism has been one of the major causes of a steep decline in the
economy. Whereby, the Army and intelligence services have been accused of either complicity
with Islamic fundamentalists and terrorists or of incompetence in combating
extremists or both. This belief has been strengthened in the wake of Osama Bin
Laden’s killing by US Special Forces in May 2011.
Needless to say, Islamabad’s new Administration is bound to
concentrate on dealing with the country’s economy which is in shambles. Hopefully,
Sharif enjoys the support of the business community in Pakistan. He must capitalise on this atmosphere of goodwill and
make use of these expressions of support to create a foreign policy that is in Pakistan’s best
interests.
Consequently, he
needs to take steps to make operational the decision taken by the previous Government
to grant MFN status to India.
On its part, New Delhi has already lifted the
ban on investments from Pakistan
and its businessmen have visited India to explore business
opportunities. Add to this, Pakistan’s
investors lobbying for greater economic ties are particularly enthusiastic
about Sharif’s return to power.
Appropriately, the
Karachi Stock Exchange crossed the 20,000 mark for the first time after his
win. The scope for greater trade is
evident from the fact that between April 2012 and March 2013, Pakistan saw a 28 per cent increase in its
export to India.
Also, Pakistan’s electricity woes can be addressed by
implementing the earlier Indian offer of selling 500 MW of electricity to Islamabad to some extent.
The business-to-business inter-action between the two countries sounds promising
and would work in favour of Pakistan’s
economic revival.
In sum, it is important that India responds
positively to Sharif’s gestures. Yet, New Delhi
needs to be clear with Islamabad
about its own “core interests”. Better
relations are possible only when the Pakistani Establishment, including the
military and intelligence agencies, vow to wage a war against terrorism. Any
optimism on part of India
without this is bound to be foolhardy. -----
INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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