Open Forum
New
Delhi, 12 June 2013
Modi Mania
NOT EASY TO DELIVER?
By Col (Dr) PK Vasudeva (Retd)
Narendra
Modi’s anointment as the head of the BJP campaign committee virtually sets the
stage for the Gujarat Chief Minister’s projection as the Party’s Prime Ministerial
candidate for the Lok Sabha election in 2014.
True,
heading the poll campaign does not
automatically qualify one for India’s top job, remember the late Pramod Mahajan
and Leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha Arun Jaitley too had headed the BJP
campaigns in 2004 and 2009 respectively.
However,
there can be no comparison between Modi as campaign chief and those who
preceded him with Mahajan having tasted success only once and Jaitley not
having contested any election at all.
Undoubtedly, the writing is on the
wall. Ever since Modi conclusively won his third term in Gujarat last year with
thumping majority, there was a growing clamour within the BJP and the young
middle-class urban Indians especially the youth that he should be anointed as India’s
next Prime minister.
In fact, Modi carefully crafted and
cultivated the image of a strongman, a smart (social) media manager; a no-nonsense
doer who has taken Gujarat on the path of
development. Perhaps, he was simply trying to capitalise on the disappointment
and desperation of a nation floundering on all parameters ----economic,
cultural, social and moral. A bit of all this has formed the perception of Modi
as India’s
only saviour.
Moreover,
the fact that Modi’s anointment did not find favour with a section of the Party
– especially veteran leader L.K. Advani, who resigned from its main
decision-making bodies, only to withdraw it after Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS)
Chief Mohan Bhagwat spoke to him, shows that Modi’s elevation was not a routine
one.
Not
a few view Advani’s ‘tantrum’ as of someone who still nurses an ambition of
projecting himself as a Prime Ministerial candidate.
This
is not all. The Party President Rajnath Singh not only contrasted Modi with
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh but also underscored that in a democracy only a
“popular leader” could inspire confidence and become leader of the country at
last weekend’s BJP’s National Executive meet in Goa,
Interestingly,
Modi too did not disguise his dream by pointing out that it was a BJP national
conclave at Goa in 2002, which had enabled him to “serve Gujarat”, adding, and
“whenever I get blessings from Goa, I attain
new heights”.
Undeniably,
Modi’s choice reflects the popular yearning within the Party’s cadres who plug for
his becoming the Prime Ministerial candidate. Although initially senior leaders
from the Advani camp resited Modi’s elevation, ultimately, the BJP’s top brass
had to bow to pressure from the Party’s rank and file drawn primarily from its
spiritual mentor, RSS.
There
is no gainsaying that leaders are best chosen after a process of internal
debate and discussion which might create bad blood and allow the media a field
day to report on internal dissent. But it is any day better than choices made
on presumed advantages of a family pedigree for electoral success. Something
that the Congress and various dynasty-based regional Parties would do well to
emulate as future leaders would be from the grass-roots who could deliver results
for the masses.
Indeed,
the vehement opposition by most Parties to the Central Information Commission’s
(CIC) recent order, asking them to bring their internal workings into public
domain, indicates how out of sync our polity is with today’s reality. Namely, people
want more transparency and accountability from their elected representatives.
Clearly,
it is not enough for Modi, to be popular within the BJP or even with Gujarat’s voting public. As since 1999, the BJP’s
strength in the Lok Sabha has fallen consistently in every election.
The
Party is practically non-existent in Eastern India,
has been decimated in Karnataka (the only Southern State where it held power)
and competes with the Congress for the No. 3 positions in UP which accounts for
80 Lok Sabha seats.
Further,
be it winning new allies or supporters among the voting public, the BJP needs
to present itself as committed to an agenda of growth and development, rather
than build around its religious affinities. This might be a challenge for Modi
who needs to overcome the stigma of the 2002 Gujarat
riots and successfully project his development record if he has to carry any
conviction at the national level.
As it stands, 2014 represents the
same challenge. While one of its NDA allies, Badal’s Akali Dal has welcomed
Modi’s anointment, the Shiv Sena which made no secret that it wanted Lok Sabha
Leader of Opposition Sushma Swaraj as the alliance Prime Ministerial aspirant
and not Modi has now fallen in line.
On its part, major partner JD(U) had
a meeting last night to decide its future course of action. But according to
the BJP, “the alliance is intact.” Notwithstanding that JD(U) Chief Sharad
Yadav expressed his “shock” at Advani’s resignation.
Certainly, the Modi-Advani spat has
left many wondering that if the Gujarat Chief Minister could send his one-time
mentor into a sulk, imagine the shivers it will send down the collective spine
of the minorities.
Indeed, Gujarat’s
Muslims might have made their peace with Modi for economic reasons, but
minorities in the rest of the country still look at him with suspicion. Questionably,
this is the biggest challenge for Modi, to instil faith in them.
The moot point is: Will he be able
to bring back former allies to the NDA fold? For instance Naveen Patnaik’s BJD
which left the alliance in 2009 is in no mood to return. Even AIADMK’s
Jayalalithaa who is Modi’s friend is unlikely to come on board as BJP’s pre-election
ally. As she is not a NDA constituent; a pre-poll alliance with the BJP would mean
parting with at least a few seats, which the Saffron Party might not win.
Sadly, the national Parties, Congress
and BJP do not count for much without either the DMK or AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.
In sum, hopefully, the transition of
Modi at the helm of affairs will fructify in to younger BJP to enable the Party
achieve its goal of winning the elections. ---- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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