Environment Day Special

New Delhi, 3 June 2013  

Temperatures To Soar

VITAL TO HEED WARNING

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

In an eye-popping projection, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal temperatures are set to surpass maximum temperatures in the 11,300 year period, known as Holocene, under all plausible greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Adding, the Earth on average cooled about -17^o C (1.3^o F) over 5000 years until the last 100 years when it warmed by 17^oC (1.3^o F). The largest changes were in the Northern hemisphere, especially Asia.

Another IPCC report --- Special Report on Managing Risks of Extreme Events & Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation --- compiled by 220 scientists over two years and released November 2011 found the world would get ten times hotter in the next 90 years due to high greenhouse gas emission scenario caused by human activity. Adding, “It is likely that the frequency of hot days will increase by a factor of 10 in most regions of the world”.   

Worse, climate models project global temperatures would rise another -16.7 to 11.3^o C (2.0 to 11.5^o F) by the Century end, depending on the magnitude of carbon emissions. “What is troubling is that this warming will be significantly greater than at any time during the past 11,300 years”, pointed out Harvard University and Oregon State University researchers.  

Undeniably, the Earth is warmer today than it was over the past 2000 years and, especially in the last decade. Clarified the lead author, “in one part of the world, the temperature history can be affected by regional climate processes like El Niño or monsoon variations but when you combine the date from sites all around the world, you can average out those regional anomalies and get a clear sense of the Earth’s global temperature history”.

According to the team, the most crucial natural factor affecting global temperatures during the past 11,300 years is a gradual change in the distribution of solar insulation linked with the Earth’s position relative to the Sun. Given that earth’s climate responds tremendously to carbon dioxide and solar insulation.    

Meanwhile, emissions are continuing abated from all across the globe wherein only handful countries are ready to comply with targets set. Shockingly, China alone is responsible for 23 per cent emissions as its environment is already severely damaged by industrial pollution to keep up its growth momentum.

In fact, India contributes a mere 3.5-4 per cent. The second largest polluter, America, which has far less population than China or India, emits over 21 per cent but as it has not notified the Kyoto Protocol it is free to emit. Also, while US and Russia, which has around 10 per cent of the world’s population together account for almost two-thirds of the net carbon dioxide emission, America and Canada account for two-thirds of methane.

Pertinently, emissions from China are a consequence of the huge quantities of carbon-intensive manufacturing taking place there. Western consumers benefit since goods imported from China and other developing countries are significantly cheaper than what these goods would cost if they were produced in the West. Consequently, the West’s burden is being borne by the developing countries.

Further, a National Council for Applied Economic Research (NCAER) study found that even if India grew by 8 per cent every year with the currently available technologies and policies, its per capita emission would not exceed 2.77 tonnes in 2031, almost 7 times less than the current per capita emission of US and almost four times less than that UK. Yet, New Delhi is trying hard to control emissions by adopting various measures.

Sadly, a series of conferences in recent years across Continents, in Copenhagen, Durban, Doha and Rio de Janeiro only restated the enormity of the problem, promising to take decisions about doing something sometime. Resulting in climate change moving from media front to back pages. Thanks to lack of political will of Western powers, the greatest polluters.   

While climate change issues don’t interest President Obama, Europe’s rightist Governments are knee-deep in financial problems and less inclined to give any priority to these.  Also, many nations including Germany and Japan have renounced nuclear power, one of the few forms of low carbon energy which could maintain high living standards by keeping emissions under control.

In India, in spite of assurances not even one megawatt of nuclear power has been added in the last 9 years. Fingers are crossed that Tamil Nadu’s Kudankulan Power Project’s (KNPP) 2x 1000 MW Fast Breeder Reactor would operate by the year-end or even earlier.   

Besides, UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) studies show gross inadequacy of commitments made by developed countries. More. The SEI study demonstrated that voluntary emission control measures planned by developing countries amount to more mitigation than commitment made by developed nations. Thus, the Kyoto Protocol agreement that developed countries would reduce emission by 5 per cent by 2008-2012 compared to the 1990 levels has not be achieved.    .

Questionably, how and when do we go in for a new and greener economy which could check global warming notwithstanding that emission management to keep average rise in global temperature below 2⁰ C might not be possible.

In sum, the time has come for greater political will and initiative in view the critical environmental challenges the world faces, specially the developed world along-with China and India. Unless strong action is taken with the industrialized world providing the leadership, the future appears bleak. It could result in an increased natural disasters, decreased agricultural production and spread of diseases, taking a toll on life and property.

Clearly, all stakeholders --- politicians, bureaucrats, non-Governmental organizations, business and industry --- must take forward environmental governance. They need to join hands in this crucial task of saving future generations. It remains to be seen how far actions being contemplated would help in protecting the planet and restoring ecological balance, especially in Third World countries in the coming decades.  Given that the world has witnessed many dialogues but it is time for implementation now. ----- INFA

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