Round The World

New Delhi, 30 April 2013

China Flexes Muscle

INDIA TREADS CAUTIOUSLY

By Shreya Upadhyay

Research Scholar, School of International Studies, JNU

By playing down the recent standoff between India and China over troop incursion in Ladakh, Raisina Hill seems to have handed the pie to Beijing. This follows a Chinese border guard platoon of 40 soldiers pitching five tents 19 kilometres inside India near Burthe in the Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) area of Eastern Ladakh in the Western sector of the Sino-Indian border on 15 April.

Shockingly, they continue to squat showing absolute disdain for India. Needless to say, if the troops do not retreat sooner than later there might be new incursions. These are expected to be heli-borne operations containing food articles for the Chinese soldiers in the area.

Within hours of Chinese squatting in the area, nearly 60 Indian soldiers pitched their own tents ten metres in front, even as the Army describes the incursion as a “peaceful face off”. Nonetheless, India has stepped up both air and ground surveillance of the area.

Pertinently, the Army has suggested 5-6 options including a show of force if matters come to a head. Which could be used in a calibrated manner to pressure the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to leave the area. Towards that end, the entire 14 Corps (over 35,000) troops deployed in Ladakh is maintaining “a high state of operational readiness” to tackle any contingency and detect any Chinese build up in the region. 

Alas, New Delhi’s approach has been sluggish, suggesting that we lack the wherewithal to stand up to the Chinese.  While Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has termed it a “localised problem” rather than one with a “strategic intent”, Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid jumped the gun by announcing his visit to China, thereby giving Beijing a license to stay where it is. Worse, Raisina Hill is also not sure that the Chinese will end the incursions once Khurshid is on Chinese soil.  

China in its defence has insisted that the present occupation does not transgress the Line of Actual Control (LoAC). True, the border between the two countries is notional and has not been put down on a mutually agreed map. In 1950, when the Survey of India issued a map showing political divisions of the newly independent nation, borders with China at several places were marked “undefined”. In 1954, the Government unilaterally defined the border between India and China.

China too, on its part has not been able to define the Western boundary in Tibet. Beijing recognizes the 2000 km-long boundary while New Delhi accepts 4,056km. Besides, several instances in the past have witnessed similar incidents of escalation but have been diffused by a combination of skilful diplomacy, show of force and political statesmanship on both sides.

Notably, what needs to be kept in mind is that over the years China has played hard on issues involving its territorial integrity. In South China Sea and East China Sea the PLA Navy is often viewed as playing an increasingly assertive role. Whereby, tension has arisen with Japan over the Senkaku islands.

Also, Chinese maritime claims have brought Beijing in to conflict with ASEAN countries principally Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia. And is even willing to go to war with these countries on territorial issues. In this scenario, China will closely be watching the quality of the Indian response.

According to reports China’s refusal to pull back its troops is a well calibrated move to register strong protest over construction of defence infrastructure near the LoAC on the Indian side in Eastern Ladakh. Even as India’s modernisation activities such as strengthening infrastructure and troop deployment near the border have been delayed by decades.

But, off late, there are signs that New Delhi is getting its act together. Huge defence expenditure since 2000 has now started resulting in better connectivity. Yet, while China has a vast network of roads, highways, tunnels and metals roads leading to border posts to bolster mobility of the PLA along most stretches of the unresolved border, slow progress dogs similar infrastructure building by India.   

What is more, some assess the incursions might have been consciously timed just ahead of Chinese Premier Li Kequiang visit to India later this month. In the recent past, Beijing has been flagging the border issue subtly and overtly through statements by its leaders and even in multi-lateral forums. China has also pointed out extensive construction activities taken by India much closer to the border.

In the current face-off, Ministries from both sides remain appeasing, going on record by stating the matter would be resolved amicably as neither side wants to colour the bilateral camaraderie. It is but a given that Chinese troops would eventually move out.

However, in the process, Beijing aims to exploit the opportunity and present a list of demands to New Delhi, such as dismantling infrastructure along the LoAC, sharing details of patrolling schedules et al.  

Additionally, the move is also being seen as an extension of China’s way of encircling India. In fact, Beijing has been expanding its profile in the region particularly with Pakistan and Sri Lanka. It is working towards opening an embassy in Bhutan’s Capital Thimpu, and might offer to resolve the boundary issue with it.   

Furthermore, China’s military modernization is on stream as demonstrated by its recent White Paper. The new leadership also wants to dispel the notion of being reform oriented solely and would like to showcase tough decisions on foreign policy issues.

This, however, has come as a dampener for India which was expecting warmer relations with the change of guard in China. Adding to this, political compulsions are high for the Indian Government to act decisively. With polls around the corner the Government would not want to be seen surrendering under Beijing’s pressure. 

Clearly, it is imperative that serious territoriality issues be taken into consideration. Remember, there cannot be any meaningful relationship without clearing up the boundary mess. Given that it is not the first time that intrusions like these have taken place and neither is it the last time.  Beijing, on its part, too claims that similar incidences have taken place from the Indian side.

Importantly, both New Delhi and Beijing and their respective media should not indulge in war-mongering. Despite this, these incursions should be an eye opener for India to streamline its defence procurements. Raisina Hill needs to seize the opportunity and respond to the latest crisis in a manner that balances diplomacy with appropriate measures on the ground.  ----- INFA