People And Their Problems

New Delhi, 19 May 2007

 Gloom On The Mankind

CLIMATE CHANGE INDIA’S GRAVE CONCERN

By Dr. P. K. Vasudeva

The signs of global climate change are clear: melting glaciers, earlier blooms and rising temperatures. In fact, 11 of the past 12 years rank among the hottest ever recorded by the scientists and diplomats of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) who issued their long-anticipated warning in a report in February.  The report suggests ways by which countries can stop the already worsening conditions. Fighting global warming has to become a world-wide movement, warns IPCC before 2030, the time by which the gloom on the mankind may befall if the green house effects are not controlled globally.

India is faced with grave concern following melting glaciers, change in rainfall pattern, falling food production, rising sea level and other climate changes due to global warming, say experts. According to Achim Steiner, Chief of the United Nations Environment Programme, global warming should be seen as a security issue as well as shortage of water and fertile land may lead to conflicts in the next 10 to 20 years. 

India is particularly vulnerable, Steiner said, adding that global warming will cause the Himalayan glaciers to melt. This will lead to mass migration and possible conflicts over valuable resources such as agricultural land and fresh water. As the heat-trapping gases warm the atmosphere, glaciers melt at a faster rate, sea levels are pushed up, and the consequences are as diverse as drought, flooding, violent storms and increased hunger, diseases and deaths.

In the next couple of decades, the Himalayan glacier can shrink to a fifth of its present size of 500,000 sq kilometers and many others, including the ones feeding the Ganges, can disappear, if the current pace of global warming persists.

Actually, thousands of Himalayan glaciers are shriveling up in varying degrees. Gangotri glacier is receding by 25 meters a year, Pindari glacier by 23 meters, Dokriani by 18 meters, Bera Shingri by 36 meters, Meola by 36 meters, Sona Pani by 17 meters, Milam by 13 meters, Zemu by 28 meters a year to name a few. Cumulatively, this melt could change the way we know our world. If global warming is not arrested, rivers will first flood and then dry up; seas will rise and fertile lands will turn dry.

The devastating impact of melting snows, rising seas and drying rivers is virtually upon us. Within the lifetime of many of us, the Ganges could be a pale shadow of its current glory; shoreline cities and town and, including Mumbai, could be compelled to build dykes to keep out the invading seas; agricultural yield in the fecund Gangetic plains could become insufficient to feed our one billion populations, unless we act now.

Here is how the disaster scenario could pan out. As temperatures rise due to global warming on account of increased pollutants in the atmosphere, glaciers will melt faster and receive less snowfall. The snowfall in the upper reaches of glacier adds weight on top, and the pace of melt at its mouth creates a delicate balance, keeping the ice mass in place. When this balance is upset, the glacier either recedes or comes forward dramatically or simply bursts resulting in the serious calamity.

This calls for consensus, lifestyle changes and innovative technologies. The first may be elusive but lifestyle changes can be people's initiatives such as curbing the compulsion to excessively heat/cool homes, or avoiding long commutes. Happily, technological solutions are already appearing — for instance, the Compact Fluorescent Lamp that saves energy, or the hybrid vehicle that could change the transport sector's image of being a major polluter.

More importantly, such clean technologies, created usually by the West, must be freely made available to the developing world. The West must not baulk at this but see it as repentance for past sins against nature. All this requires political will to implement them.

This assessment must be taken very seriously in India. There should be a drastic shift from fossil fuels like coal and oil. As a country we have to choose our own pathways and develop and start using energy efficient technologies well within our means. More important, there should be a political will to discuss and resolve the issue. Every citizen has to be made aware of the effects of global warming and a course of action drawn out right from the primary school levels.

The issue has to catch the attention of the common people especially rural poor whose day to day life depends on the wood from the jungles for cooking, warming, survival and even the cremation after death. The depletion of forests that is deforestation should be ruthlessly curbed and aforestation encouraged at all levels. Introduction of good public transportation system can control vehicle pollution to quite an extent.---INFA

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