Political Diary

New Delhi, 16 March 2013

No Roman Holiday

BEING KICKED AROUND

By Poonam I Kaushish

“Nations live or die by the way they respond to the particular challenges they face”, perhaps former US President Nixon had India on his mind, in his book The Real War. Alas, our leaders continue to wallow in the false belief that wars are born in the minds of men ---- won by hard rhetoric and surreptitiously waving the white flag!

This tale started with the arrest of two Italian marines for killing two fishermen reportedly in Indian waters who were allowed by the Supreme Court on a four-week voting holiday to Italy. The Italian Government sent a missive to New Delhi that its boys would not return, notwithstanding its ambassador’s affidavit to the Court. Leading to a first-rate diplomatic row with Prime Minister calling Italy's action “unacceptable” demanding the marines’ return, failing which it could tell on bilateral ties.

Undeniably the issue has gone beyond diplomatese as the Supreme Court has been taken for a ride by Italy and raises the larger issue of sovereignty and sanctity of India’s judicial system. Whether the Ambassador has committed contempt of Court or is covered by the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations is not the issue. Neither is it why the Government allowed the marines to go given they could have voted by post. All this and more.

Either which way the damage is done. With puny Italy cocking-a-snook at India it has exposed New Delhi’s best known secret: Of being a soft State which shies away from taking firm action and charting a bold decisive foreign policy whereby everyone takes us for a ride.

From US to our neighbours all our busy kicking us around while India’s foreign policy farce continues. Pakistan continues to inflict their regulation thousand cuts, but this never seems to impel us for action. Fiyadeen attacks, 26/11 perpetrators Masood Azhar, Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi and Hafeez Saeed continue to spew venom and roam free in Pakistan while Islamabad scoffs at New Delhi’s tough talk of crushing terrorism which ends in a whimper.

Instead of cancelling JKLF Chief Yasin Malik passport for sharing a dais with Saeed on his recent visit to Pakistan, the Government has only kept him under “house surveillance”. Sic. Also, many question the utility of an Indo-Pak dialogue when Islamabad has not delivered on India's demands on putting an end to terror fermenting in its backyard. Bluntly, talks and terror cannot co-exist. Alas, New Delhi continues to keep a brave face and paint a hopeful future.

On Sri Lanka both Dravidian Parties DMK and AIADMK are putting pressure on the UPA for bringing an amendment to the US-sponsored UN Human Rights Council resolution against Colombo, which wants the island State to implement its recommendations on the 2009 war excesses and punish the guilty.

If India votes against the UNHRC resolution later this month things could worsen. New Delhi is torn between internal political wrangling and balancing its foreign policy imperatives. With elections in 2014 the Congress is dependent on Tamil Nadu’s 16 MPs to continue in office. As it stands, India-Sri Lanka ties are rapidly going south.  Colombo has openly blocked imports from India, especially automobiles.

Complicating matters, India’s ties with Sri Lanka also involve China and Pakistan. Till date Beijing has been successfully flirting with Colombo thereby making strategic, bagging the Hambantota port and international airport projects, highway development and investments in other sectors such as agriculture.

With the Indian Ocean becoming the most important waters in the 21st Century, Beijing wants to be a major player whereby its “string of pearls” around India is finding firmer anchorage fast. Starting at Hainan, China’s southern-most province with its submarine bay; it has a listening post at Coco islands, Hianggyi, Khaukphyu, Mergui and Zadetkyi Kyun port facilities in Myanmar; Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka  Chittagong in Bangladesh to Pakistan’s Gwadar on the Arabian Sea. This would open China’s access to the Arabian Sea and facilitate oil supplies. It also plans to build naval bases there.

Further, it intends appending this string to Tibet, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Already a direct highway and waterway links China’s southern Yunan province to Myanmar’s Yangon port providing direct access to the Bay of Bengal. Beijing’s is already funding construction and modernization of Chittagong port which handles 90 per cent of Bangladesh’s foreign trade. Reportedly, it might transfer port rights to the PLA Navy.

More. According to intelligence agencies, China is responsible for Maldives scrapping its airport deal with an Indian company. Interpreted as Beijing’s effort to dominate the strategically-important sea lanes of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).In effect, Beijing has surrounded India around its frontiers, except Bhutan where we remain favoured partner. Thereby, posing a serious challenge in the short and medium term.

India’s Look East Policy too is going nowhere. On Bangladesh, New Delhi has failed to make much headway. Following Prime Minister’s Teesta water sharing fiasco in 2011 which dealt a serious blow to its image, Foreign Minister’s recent visit to Dhaka failed to clinch the crucial transit facilities for the North-East including its access to the Chittagong and Mongla ports.

Predictably, the failure on these agreements has resulted in anger in Bangladesh which wants stronger ties with India. In fact, these pacts are vital for New Delhi’s strategic compulsions to counter China and nullify Myanmar’s offensive to woo the common neighbour. Notably, mature relations with Dhaka are vital to India’s security concerns as major terrorist organisation Harkat-ul Jehad Islami is not only based there but behind several terrorist modules in India.

Evidently, Washington wants to maintain a kind of “cooperation vigilance”, on the lines of the Kissinger thesis of the 70’s. The former Secretary of State argued that the US should “act as a guarantor of equilibrium” for which it should be prepared to play a “pivotal balancing role in Asia.” Something which Beijing adroitly seems to be busy nipping as it expands it pan-Asian horizons and flexes muscles in Asia. 

Clearly, la affair Italy should awaken India to smell the coffee, get its priorities straight and craft a long-term clear-cut new real politik foreign policy taking national security imperatives into consideration which is result oriented. Raisina Hill has to shed deluding itself with misleading platitudes and misplaced bonhomie, inject realism and place a premium on substance and leveraged diplomacy to deal with the challenge of ambitious nations.  What use are tall claims of becoming a global power if we lack spine?

Time for New Delhi to think and act smart, have a clear view of where the dangers lie and the responses necessary to quell them. Tough times call for tough action. Above all, our polity needs to hold the mirror and be truthful: Bankrupt third-rate politics sans political will and stomach cannot make India an effective hard State.

Remember, international politics is ruthless, there are no permanent friends or foes only permanent interests with the winner taking all. We don't need to be loved by others, we just need to be effective. As Woodrow Wilson once said:  Only a peace among equals can last. Stop being scared. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)