Round The World

New Delhi, 13 March 2013

Bangla Spring

WILL INDIA GAIN?

By Shreya Upadhyay

Research Scholar, School of International Studies, JNU

Bangladesh’s Shahbag is a tiny reminder of Egypt’s Tahrir square. Whereby, the people’s upsurge in Dhaka is akin to the Arab Spring. But the resemblance stops there. While the Arab Spring fought a dictatorial regime and brought religious extremists to power, Bangladesh’s internal churning at Shahbag square is a fight against holy fanatics and aimed at alternating the direction.

The crowd at the Square since 5 February plan to recapture Bangladesh’s birth legacy and reclaim the 1971 national movement. The mood is festive with the youth shouting 1971 war slogans --- “Joy Bangla”, “Tumi ke? Aami ke? Bangalee Bangalee” (Who are you? Who am I? Bengali). Adding their own “Amader ek hi dabi Razakar er fashi” (Our one demand, hang the Razakars); “Jamaat-e-Islami made in Pakistan”.

Shahbag is a leaderless revolution with activists, students and youngsters playing the principal role. On one hand it is a war of secular Bangladesh against Islamists and fundamentalists, on the other the protestors are striving for a violent goal in a non-violent manner, namely hanging of all accused of war crimes by the Bangladesh International Court Tribunal (ICT).

Pertinently, the protests began as a response to ICT’s decision of life imprisonment to Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) Assistant Secretary General Abdul Quader Mollah for crimes committed during the 1971 war. Bonded by social media, thousands of people, most of them not even born when Bangladesh came into being, spilled across the square demanding the death sentence for Mollah. Known as ‘Butcher of Mirpur’, Mollah was involved in beheading a poet, raping an 11-year-old girl and murdering 344 people. 

The protesters raised three demands: Death sentence for the war crimes perpetrators, ban on Jamaat and its student wing, Islami Chattar Shivir, both involved in violence against Bengali people and boycott of companies controlled by Jamaat. Their goal? Isolation of Jamaat!

Undeniably, Jamaat, an alliance partner of the Opposition leader Khaleda Zia is feeling the heat now.  Recall, both organizations were banned after the 1971 war for collaborating with Pakistan’s army and were involved in many atrocities. But, were reinstated by Zia Ur Rehman’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party in 1978. Following the popularity surge of the Shahbag protests, Jamaat is thriving on the blame game and fear factor, threatening to launch a civil war in the country if the trials were not stopped. It has even questioned the students’ credibility calling them “anti-Islamic”, “atheists” and “Indian agents”.

Expectedly, the Jamaat-e-Islami is on a rampage with its leaders being convicted by the ICT for war crimes throwing Molotov cocktails at pedestrians and attacking the police.  The decision of handing down the death sentence to its leader Delwar Hossain Sayedee and life-term to Mollah resulted in a two-day strike called on by it and supported by Khaleda’s BNP.  The backlash resulted in vandalism of over 40 Hindu temples, several shops and houses of Hindus across Bangladesh.

Actually, behind Shahbag’s spontaneity and its apolitical nature, there is political logic at work.  Indeed, Sheikh Hasina’s Government has built its governance agenda around 1971 and she is busy revisiting history by setting up tribunals to try war crimes, celebrating forgotten heroes, honoring Indians etc. Also, the protest is working in her Government’s favor given the way her Government has responded to the protests.

Notably, Bangladesh’s Parliament has called for a review of Mollah’s life sentence and recast the mechanism to try Jamaat members for war crimes.  Towards that end it has amended the war crimes law to allow prosecution to try and punish any organization. This could pave way for banning Jamaat-e-Islami. The amendment was brought during the passage of the much-talked-about Bill which also carried other changes of the International Crimes Tribunals Act, 1973 to allow the Government and complainants to appeal against the war crimes tribunals’ verdict.

Interestingly, the crowd is also demanding a ban of religion in politics which essentially tightens the noose even on Sheikh Hasina’s politics as she has shied from adopting her father Shiekh Mujibar Rehman’s secular politics. True, Hasina reintroduced the “secular” word in the Constitution, she did not remove Islam as the State religion. Thus, the issue is much broader now and seeks to put pressure on her Government as well.  

Undoubtedly, it is time for Raisina Hill to wake up and smell the coffee being brewed in Shahbag. Till date, India has been worried about an emerging Indian “sub text”. There is a feeling that at a time when ties between the countries are looking up, protests like these could be a problem. This explains New Delhi’s lack-luster and defensive response. However, it is important that the Government understand that while everything in Bangladesh cannot be repaired by quick-fix, the Shahbag affair has a potential to mark the triumph of liberal political forces over Islamic extremist elements.   

Clearly, if Shahbag succeeds, the payoffs for India are enormous. Already, BNP-Jamaat regimes have taken a stridently ‘anti-India’ stance. Notwithstanding, Khaleda Zia’s assurance to New Delhi last November that anti-India elements would not be allowed to use Bangladeshi territory if voted to power. Nonetheless, in the incredible turn of events, Zia snubbed New Delhi by refusing to meet President Pranab Mukherjee during his three-day visit to Bangladesh which coincided with Jamaat-e-Islami’s strike.

Thus, if the Hasina Government is successful in banning Jamaat, it would be good for New Delhi as the Islamist Party supports anti-India sentiments and is pro-Pakistan. New Delhi is already apprehensive that any change of guard in Dhaka could undo the security cooperation worked out with Hasina’s Awami League Government and might prove detrimental to its security and other interests in the region.

In sum, despite a few setbacks, the two countries have been moving uphill in their attempt to further bilateral ties by promoting trade, investment and economic cooperation, boosting regional connectivity, people to people contacts, transmission and distribution of electricity, promotion of educational and cultural cooperation and environmental protection. India and Bangladesh also signed a 1 billion dollar credit agreement, the highest loan that New Delhi has ever committed to any country.

Hasina’s Government has also taken steps against anti-India elements emanating and operating from its territory. Yet certain issues such as water sharing of Teesta River and land boundary agreement remain and are expected to be clinched when Hasina visits India in September. Notably, steps taken to resolve pending issues are bound to reap bounty for both Governments. New Delhi needs to support Hasina in power but alongside it needs to don the diplomatic mantle and cozy-up to Zia to neutralize the Jamaat factor. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)