People And Their Problems

New Delhi, 7 April 2007  

Energy Independence

EXPLORING GROWTH OPTIONS

By Dhurjati Mukherjee

Energy growth and independence is a key factor in India’s fast pace of development, which obviously needs to be sustained in the coming years. The energy independence has got to be achieved through three different sources---hydel, nuclear and non-conventional, primarily through solar and wind energy. The power generating capacity, according to projections, has to increase to 400,000 MW by 2030 from the existing 130,000 MW. There has been much debate and discussion on which of the sources emphases should be laid.

While it is a well known fact that there has been a cry the world over to reduce dependence on non-renewable sources, the same point was echoed by President, APJ Kalam, at a convocation address recently. Not only did he emphasize the need to increase power generated through non-renewable sources from the present five per cent to 25 per cent by 2030.

Dr. Kalam also called for massive encouragement for increasing production of bio-diesel and ethanol. “We are at present importing around 100 million tonnes of crude oil with a foreign exchange outflow of Rs 150,000 crore per annum. By 2030, with the present growth rate, we may have to import 300 million tonnes”, he said and exhorted scientists to work on developing other energy solutions.

There have been examples abroad of successful blending of bio-diesel with petrol and diesel and the President said the target for such blending should be around 30 per cent. For this, production of 60 million tonnes of bio-diesel and 60 million tonnes of ethanol has to be achieved by 2030, according to him.

On nuclear power, Dr. Kalam observed that there was need to plan right now to increase the capacity by 50,000 MW by 2030 when hydel capacity was expected to contribute 80,000 MW. At present, the nuclear power capacity of 16 reactors is 3900 MW and this may go up to 7400 MW by 2010 with the completion of the nine reactors, now in progress. It may be mentioned here that as per projections of BARC and Nuclear Power Corporation, the capacity is expected to be increased to 24,000 MW by 2020.          

The roadmap for the country’s energy needs definitely require to be examined carefully, keeping in view the fact that the manufacturing sector has been increasing rapidly, on the one hand, while electrification of the rural sector is being carried out, on the other. The dependence on the thermal sector has to gradually reduce steadily not just because of problems of availability of coal but also because of greenhouse warming and increased pollution. The recent emphasis should obviously be on hydel power supported by non-renewable sources, especially solar and wind power.   

Meanwhile, though power is the biggest single factor responsible for rapid industrialization of the country, the Tenth Plan target of adding 34,000 MW is unlikely to be fulfilled as till the end of 2006 only around 18,000-19,000 MW new generation had been added. During the Eleventh Plan, the capacity addition target has been quite ambitious of around 68,000 MW, which would require an investment of around $ 100 billion. But though there is much talk of concentrating on non-conventional sources, this would contribute around 10,000 MW while the share of hydel projects would be 18,000 MW. However, even this is much better than that of the earlier Plans where the share of non-conventional sources was quite meagre.       

An important development in the power sector is the use of sophisticated technology called super-critical technology. This technology enables higher efficiency in power generation leading to lower coal usage and hence lower emissions. The technology is based on super-critical property of water. At a pressure beyond 225 bar unit of (pressure) in a boiler, water transforms into steam simultaneously. Another significant aspect is that this technology is applicable in plants of 660 MW and above.

Most plants based on this technology are located in Japan and Europe. In India, it is beginning to be accepted now with two projects being developed by the NTPC. The obvious reason for the acceptance of this technology is its high efficiency of around 45 per cent compared to only 32 per cent of Indian plants.

The higher efficiency is achieved by complex thermodynamic phenomenon, whereby if energy input to the boiler-turbine system is kept constant, operating the system at higher pressures and temperatures can increase power produced. It may be pertinent here to point out that The Economist has predicted that solar electricity would be competitive with coal-based power in three to eight years.

New innovations in the realm of solar and wind power have also been evident. Wind power is fast emerging as a credible alternative at competitive prices. Increased usage of wind power needs to be actively pursued keeping an eye on costs and making it more acceptable. One may mention here Pune-based Suzlon Energy and MSPL Ltd., both of which are running quite successfully while many others are expected to set up plants.

Wind turbine manufacturers estimate that they would remain competitive in the international market as long as the price of crude oil remains above $ 40 per barrel. Experts feel a little support from the government by way of reduction of import duty tax would go a long way in boosting up windmills along the countryside. 

As regards solar power, it is well known that the upfront costs are simply too steep. To overcome this, a solar developer in California called ‘Developing Energy Efficient Roof Systems’ has introduced a business model in which it buys the equipment from private finances. Though such business model is unsuitable for India primarily because of high electricity rates in the United States, there is need to examine effective utilization of solar energy at competitive costs.

There is much talk of the effectiveness of nuclear energy as it has played a significant role in power generation in the developed countries of the world. Though nuclear power is clean and does not emit large amount of greenhouse gases, it requires high capital investment and is also fraught with grave safety concerns. However, modern monitoring and control systems along with computer simulation techniques have all added to nuclear power safety strategies and reactor operators have learnt from past mistakes.

It is estimated that the capital cost of a nuclear plant is around Rs 6-6.5 crore /MW against Rs. 4-4.5 for a thermal plant. What really gives the edge to nuclear plants is the significantly lower operating cost, which is less than Re 0.5 per unit against Re 1 for coal-based plants. For gas-based plants , it is higher at Rs 1.5 per unit based on gas price of about $ 4 per mmbtu.

The recent agreement with the USA should help ease the problem of getting natural uranium, a tonne of which can produce more than 40 million units of electricity. This is equivalent to burning 16,000 tonnes of coal, 100-mn m₃ of gas or 80,000 barrels of oil. As per estimates, India’s uranium reserves are limited and can only support 10,000 MW of capacity.

But the Indo-US deal would facilitate large imports and support higher capacity addition up to 500,000 MW of power. The second stage development of Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR), which uses reprocessed fuel generated from first stage reactors, would be an important step in this direction. The first such reactor is under construction. It is expected to be commissioned in 2009-10.

The technological innovations coupled with the stress on non-conventional sources as also on nuclear power, if followed effectively, should help the country achieve its industrialization programme. Apart from this, the electrification of the rural sector could also be achieved during the targeted timeframe.

It needs to be reiterated that adequate emphasis on power generation is a must, more so as indigenous power equipment manufacturers have the capability to lend valuable support to the country’s on-going projects. However R & D in this sector has to be given sufficient attention to increase the plant load factor (PLF) of our plants and ensure economies of scale.---INFA

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