Round The World

New Delhi, 22 January 2013

Pakistan’s Internal Crisis

HEADING FOR DEJA VU AGAIN?

By Shreya Upadhyay

Research Scholar, School of International Studies, JNU

Pakistan seems to be on the boil and is facing an implosive crisis wherein the ruling People’s Party of Pakistan (PPP) fears an existential threat. Notwithstanding, its Government is completing its five-year term in June, forces are at work to undermine this milestone. There is a covert suspicion of the Army and the Judiciary colluding in this.

Adding to this there is an embarrassing line up of Opposition for the upcoming election in June along-with the prolonged economic crisis, Afghanistan’s uncertain future and sectarian violence involving not only Hindus and Christians but even Muslims. Pertinently, Shia Muslims who constitute one-fifth of the country’s population have regularly been targeted by the extremists.

This month alone over a hundred Shia Muslims have been killed in Quetta bombings and last month more than a hundred Ahmadi (not considered Muslims under Pakistani law) graves were desecrated in Lahore for having the Islamic prayer written on their tombstones. Thus, the last five years of democracy have seen more corruption cases, incompetence and bad governance surmounting almost as high as records set by previous regimes.

The result is likely to be more déjà vu again. Wherein, various Opposition voices have accused mainstream Parties, especially Asif Zardari’s PPP and Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N for being the mainstay of a corrupt system. Canada-returned cleric Tahir-ul Qadri staged a ‘million march’ demanding an immediate dissolution of the Government and replaced by an interim Administration blessed by the Army.

Even as the Government has come to an agreement with Qadri to attend to several of his concerns, it is likely to haunt the PPP in the coming months as the election mood sets in. The cleric has been known as an Army loyalist who supported Gen Pervez Musharraf military coup, is praised by the judiciary and army for his speech  which immediately led to accusations of him trying to engineer a ‘soft coup’.

Undoubtedly, the Judiciary-Army theory further thickens with the possible collusion between the Chief Justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Muhamad Chaudhry and the military with the former ordering Prime Minister Raja Parvez Ashraf’s arrest along-with several other senior officials on corruption charges.  

Clearly, given the current situation, India need to realize the dynamics of the internal situation in Pakistan and respond accordingly while avoiding the anti-Pakistan sentiments that could derail the composite dialogue process. The continuing border violations even after the flag meeting by commandeers from both sides indicate that the Pakistan Army is in no mood for de-escalation.

There have been speculations regarding perception within the Pakistani military that heightened tensions with India would help rebuild their legitimacy. The Line of Control conflict which began on January 6 which saw Pakistani and Indian troops trading gunfire across the Kashmir border, leaving one Pakistani soldier dead bears this out.

Recall, another confrontation two days later resulted in the deaths of two Indian soldiers, one of whom was beheaded. This led to a flurry of reactions from both sides, mostly outrage by India and denials by Pakistan.

However, this has not been an isolated incident. Since 2008, after General Parvez Kayani took over as Pakistan’s Army Chief, clashes along the Line of Control (LoC) have escalated. The military Establishment would like to push jihadist groups in to India instead of them targeting domestic targets.   

Importantly, against this backdrop New Delhi’s aggressive stance towards the LoC skirmishes has been unprecedented. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh delivered a strong statement against Islamabad asserting that there “cannot be business as usual with Pakistan," which must bring those responsible for the killings and mutilation of two Indian soldiers to book.

This proclamation was clearly a break from the past given that Manmohan Singh has been pushing for peace between the warring neighbours.  Along-side Army Chief Gen Bikram Singh instructed his battalion commanders on the LoC to retaliate “aggressively and offensively” if the Pakistani Army provokes them by violating the ceasefire or pushing militants into J&K.

However, by New Delhi flashing the red card to Islamabad could push it further into the trap being laid out by Pakistan’s military establishment. See the absurdity. Pakistan Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar blew hot and cold. First she offered to get the incident investigated by the UN Military Observers group, then accused India of “war mongering” and later pleaded that bilateral talks continue to stabilize the situation.

Notably, Khar’s statements carry an implicit message which indicates Islamabad probably does not want the situation to go out of control given the internal political crisis unfolding which requires the Government to manage hostilities with India but by showcasing that it is not being soft on its neigbour.

Thus, it is important to understand Pakistani military’s covert hand in the increasing skirmishes along the LoC. In the past too, the Army has considered rivalry with India as the principal objective of the State’s foreign policy. The past few years have witnessed a carefully calibrated escalation of hostilities without seeking to invite international condemnation. 

Understandably, Pakistan’s internal crisis makes the volatile situation worse. Consequently it is important for India to closely keep an eye on the situation as the crisis in Islamabad could lead to the Army emerging as a major player in the near future.

Any instability in Pakistan is bad for India-Pak ties and hence spells trouble for India. For that reason it is important for New Delhi to keep channels of bilateral dialogue open. Denying visas to elderly Pakistanis or stopping hockey players and theatre artists from participating in Indian tournaments and programs will not make our borders or our civilians safer.

What remains of strategic importance is that India should insist on the disbanding of terrorist camps on the Pakistani side across the LoC. Otherwise regardless of all confidence building measures, Pakistan’s Army and terrorist groups have the option of taking provocative actions to destabilize the situation. The unearthing of mines with Pakistan markings inside our territory even in the tense situation is evidence of this.

Clearly, we need to be vigilant on our in Punjab and Rajasthan. Particularly in Punjab, which has seen a renewed effort by Pakistan to ferment trouble last year by reviving Sikh extremism. Similarly, security along the Nepal and Bangladesh borders also needs to be tightened as terror groups and ISI have used these countries as take-off points for their activity in India.  

Imperatively, difficult politics in both countries make new confidence-building measures unlikely at present. Still, New Delhi would definitely not gain if the two nuclear-armed rivals stumble into a full-blown conflict. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)