Round
The World
New Delhi, 17
January 2013
Afghan Endgame
CHALLENGES FOR INDIA
By Monish Tourangbam
(Associate Fellow,
Observer Research Foundation, New
Delhi)
New Delhi, other than closely
watching developments in Pakistan,
is observing those in Afghanistan
too. As the US begins its
phased military drawdown in Afghanistan,
deliberations are abound regarding the nature and strength of the American
presence there post 2014. By then, US’
role in Afghanistan
is set to turn from an overt military one to one which will focus on training
the Afghan national force and arguably, some special operations forces to
ensure that the Al Qaeda does not regain grounds.
Importantly, the US has built bridges with Pakistan after
its cold war by giving it $3 billion worth of military aid. Clearly Washington’s intention is to give primacy to Islamabad in Kabul’s
endgame. Be that as it may, uncertainty still lingers over a host of areas. As
evident from the continuing negotiations, there is decreasing appetite for
keeping American forces in Afghanistan.
The economic and human cost of the Afghan war has made it increasingly
unpopular both in the United
States and European countries. The recent
talks between US President Barack Obama and his Afghan counterpart President Hamid
Karzai show that the withdrawal might accelerate; and that ambiguity would persist
regarding the presence of American forces because the question of immunity of
American forces from prosecution in Afghanistan is still left to the
Afghan elders/the loya jirga.
Notably, President Obama has
warned that no American troops would remain behind in Afghanistan
unless they were granted immunity from prosecution in local courts. Recall that
Washington pulled out all its troops from Iraq, leaving no residual force, as Baghdad refused to grant US soldiers protection from
prosecution in local courts. Obama has promised to speed up a transfer of lead
security responsibility from NATO to Afghan forces this spring rather than in
the middle of the year. At present, deliberations in Washington swing from keeping 3000 to 9000
troops to the extreme situation of leaving none at all. Accordingly, the
presence of US troops would be based on a bilateral security agreement due in
another eight to nine months.
Moreover, international attention is
also focused on the nature of the role that the Taliban will play in the
political set-up of the country post 2014. Questions are also being raised over
the security of the various infrastructure development projects being funded by
foreign donations. Besides, the sustainability of foreign aid is too being questioned,
given the high levels of corruption in the country. Moreover, for India which has invested around $2 billion in
civilian assistance, the impending security situation in Afghanistan
should be of serious concern.
Projections from different sources
draw a disturbing picture viz the capacity of the Afghan National forces and
the State police in the absence of sustainable support from NATO; with a
Pentagon report saying that only one out of 23
Afghan brigades is considered capable of operating on its own. In addition, risks
are high that both the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for
2014 and 2015 respectively will be marred with high level of violence and
fraudulent practices.
Evident from the recent
peace talks in France, as
the foreign military presence reaches its twilight in Afghanistan, efforts
are being made to bring in the Taliban into the reconciliation process. As a
result, Pakistan
has started releasing senior Taliban leaders who will take part in talks with
the Afghan government. The peace talks, the one
held in France and others to follow, provide a platform for the Taliban to
express their views in the open but at the same time their political views will
run against the grain of the present Constitution, which they consider
redundant claiming that it was written under the influence of western powers.
Interestingly, India, despite giving
sizeable developmental aid to the Afghan government is not a part of the
deal-making party; and it does not have any leverage over the Taliban. But, the
political outcome in Afghanistan
will highly impact the nature of India’s
involvement in Afghanistan.
Given India’s civilian
presence on the ground in Afghanistan,
the trajectory of events till 2014 is of utmost concern to New Delhi.
Even though India cannot possibly forestall any future role
for the Taliban in the country, it should, during correspondence, with Kabul, Washington
and others governments that have leverages over the peace process, make clear
certain red lines regarding the role of the Taliban. By now, it is clear that
the military defeat of the Taliban as envisioned earlier is not possible, and
any chance of a semblance of peace and security in Afghanistan cannot take place
without settling power-sharing issues with the force.
Recent efforts towards
that end have led to a roadmap, but whether it will create a real, sustainable
road to peace, is still anyone’s guess. The
recently disclosed ‘Peace Process Roadmap’ consists of five steps, which sought
to outline a vision in which, by 2015, the Taliban, the Hizb-e-Islami and other
armed groups will have given up their armed opposition. But, then
again, it is hard to safely presume this concession from the Taliban that has
publicly warned of a prolonged war in Afghanistan if any foreign troops
stay post 2014.
Notably, there is a broad
acknowledgement that peace, stability and prosperity in Afghanistan is possible
only through a process of regional integration, specifically through some sort
of understanding between countries such as India and Pakistan that have
divergent interests in Afghanistan. But, any convergence regarding India’s and Pakistan’s
perceptions of Afghanistan’s
future is easier said than done. It is well known that Pakistan wants the Taliban to come back to power
in Afghanistan, which will
be detrimental to India’s
interests. And, the way Pakistan
has started injecting himself into the peace talks with the insurgents, should be
of concern to New Delhi.
Bearing in mind logistical
necessities of NATO’s withdrawal policy and the need to co-opt the Taliban in
any ensuing political scenario in Afghanistan,
Pakistan’s
leverage over the Afghan endgame is increasing. Washington
will probably paper over differences and ignore Islamabad’s
diabolical designs, in order to engineer a face saving exit from Afghanistan.
And, this will undoubtedly present major challenges to India’s strategy to safeguard its interests in Afghanistan.
New Delhi’s political clout in Kabul does not have the wherewithal to effectively prevent
the return of the Taliban and the inevitability of western powers coming to terms
with some form of Taliban influence post 2014, does not portend well for India. Pakistan, which
continues to fumble internally, has won considerable points in the Afghan
endgame. Unfortunately, it seems déjà vu again, as western and regional players
are losing the plot to Pakistan’s
geostrategic location and its dalliance with a regressive force like the
Taliban. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)
|