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Afghan Endgame:CHALLENGES FOR INDIA, By Monish Tourangbam, 17 Jan, 2013 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 17 January 2013

Afghan Endgame

CHALLENGES FOR INDIA

By Monish Tourangbam

(Associate Fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)

 

New Delhi, other than closely watching developments in Pakistan, is observing those in Afghanistan too. As the US begins its phased military drawdown in Afghanistan, deliberations are abound regarding the nature and strength of the American presence there post 2014. By then, US’ role in Afghanistan is set to turn from an overt military one to one which will focus on training the Afghan national force and arguably, some special operations forces to ensure that the Al Qaeda does not regain grounds.

Importantly, the US has built bridges with Pakistan after its cold war by giving it $3 billion worth of military aid. Clearly Washington’s intention is to give primacy to Islamabad in Kabul’s endgame. Be that as it may, uncertainty still lingers over a host of areas. As evident from the continuing negotiations, there is decreasing appetite for keeping American forces in Afghanistan. The economic and human cost of the Afghan war has made it increasingly unpopular both in the United States and European countries. The recent talks between US President Barack Obama and his Afghan counterpart President Hamid Karzai show that the withdrawal might accelerate; and that ambiguity would persist regarding the presence of American forces because the question of immunity of American forces from prosecution in Afghanistan is still left to the Afghan elders/the loya jirga.

Notably, President Obama has warned that no American troops would remain behind in Afghanistan unless they were granted immunity from prosecution in local courts. Recall that Washington pulled out all its troops from Iraq, leaving no residual force, as Baghdad refused to grant US soldiers protection from prosecution in local courts. Obama has promised to speed up a transfer of lead security responsibility from NATO to Afghan forces this spring rather than in the middle of the year. At present, deliberations in Washington swing from keeping 3000 to 9000 troops to the extreme situation of leaving none at all. Accordingly, the presence of US troops would be based on a bilateral security agreement due in another eight to nine months.

Moreover, international attention is also focused on the nature of the role that the Taliban will play in the political set-up of the country post 2014. Questions are also being raised over the security of the various infrastructure development projects being funded by foreign donations. Besides, the sustainability of foreign aid is too being questioned, given the high levels of corruption in the country. Moreover, for India which has invested around $2 billion in civilian assistance, the impending security situation in Afghanistan should be of serious concern.  

Projections from different sources draw a disturbing picture viz the capacity of the Afghan National forces and the State police in the absence of sustainable support from NATO; with a Pentagon report saying that only one out of 23 Afghan brigades is considered capable of operating on its own. In addition, risks are high that both the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 2014 and 2015 respectively will be marred with high level of violence and fraudulent practices.

Evident from the recent peace talks in France, as the foreign military presence reaches its twilight in Afghanistan, efforts are being made to bring in the Taliban into the reconciliation process. As a result, Pakistan has started releasing senior Taliban leaders who will take part in talks with the Afghan government. The peace talks, the one held in France and others to follow, provide a platform for the Taliban to express their views in the open but at the same time their political views will run against the grain of the present Constitution, which they consider redundant claiming that it was written under the influence of western powers.  

Interestingly, India, despite giving sizeable developmental aid to the Afghan government is not a part of the deal-making party; and it does not have any leverage over the Taliban. But, the political outcome in Afghanistan will highly impact the nature of India’s involvement in Afghanistan. Given India’s civilian presence on the ground in Afghanistan, the trajectory of events till 2014 is of utmost concern to New Delhi.

Even though India cannot possibly forestall any future role for the Taliban in the country, it should, during correspondence, with Kabul, Washington and others governments that have leverages over the peace process, make clear certain red lines regarding the role of the Taliban. By now, it is clear that the military defeat of the Taliban as envisioned earlier is not possible, and any chance of a semblance of peace and security in Afghanistan cannot take place without settling power-sharing issues with the force. 

Recent efforts towards that end have led to a roadmap, but whether it will create a real, sustainable road to peace, is still anyone’s guess. The recently disclosed ‘Peace Process Roadmap’ consists of five steps, which sought to outline a vision in which, by 2015, the Taliban, the Hizb-e-Islami and other armed groups will have given up their armed opposition.  But, then again, it is hard to safely presume this concession from the Taliban that has publicly warned of a prolonged war in Afghanistan if any foreign troops stay post 2014.  

Notably, there is a broad acknowledgement that peace, stability and prosperity in Afghanistan is possible only through a process of regional integration, specifically through some sort of understanding between countries such as India and Pakistan that have divergent interests in Afghanistan. But, any convergence regarding India’s and Pakistan’s perceptions of Afghanistan’s future is easier said than done. It is well known that Pakistan wants the Taliban to come back to power in Afghanistan, which will be detrimental to India’s interests. And, the way Pakistan has started injecting himself into the peace talks with the insurgents, should be of concern to New Delhi.  

Bearing in mind logistical necessities of NATO’s withdrawal policy and the need to co-opt the Taliban in any ensuing political scenario in Afghanistan, Pakistan’s leverage over the Afghan endgame is increasing. Washington will probably paper over differences and ignore Islamabad’s diabolical designs, in order to engineer a face saving exit from Afghanistan. And, this will undoubtedly present major challenges to India’s strategy to safeguard its interests in Afghanistan.

New Delhi’s political clout in Kabul does not have the wherewithal to effectively prevent the return of the Taliban and the inevitability of western powers coming to terms with some form of Taliban influence post 2014, does not portend well for India. Pakistan, which continues to fumble internally, has won considerable points in the Afghan endgame. Unfortunately, it seems déjà vu again, as western and regional players are losing the plot to Pakistan’s geostrategic location and its dalliance with a regressive force like the Taliban. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

 

 

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