Round The World

New Delhi, 1 January 2013

World 2012

A YEAR OF TRANSITION

By Shreya Upadhyay

Research Scholar, School of International Studies, JNU

2012, was a year of transition. Be it China’s once in a decade change of power or elections around the world, including the US and Russia. The flowers of Arab Spring waited to bloom in the Middle East with evolving conflicts and realignment of power. While Tunisia, Egypt and Libya noted slight improvements in civil liberties and political rights, the security situation remained volatile with the murder of the US ambassador to Libya. Elections in Egypt are yet to pave the way for a stronger democracy as President Mohamed Morsi claimed sweeping powers and rushed through a vote on a new Constitution, sparking off a new wave of protests.

Syria's Bashar al-Assad declined to share power, preferring to carry out a war against opposition rebels that has left almost 40,000 dead. Myanmar allowed dissident leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and her political party to participate in parliamentary by-elections signaling a significant shift from military dominance.

The year, however, belonged to geopolitical maritime disputes within the Asia-Pacific region.  The recent spate of disputes in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Sea of Japan has seen nations roiling the waters to secure their national interest. Washington has declared its ‘pivot to Asia’ policy as an attempt to deal with its relative decline and Beijing’s increasing assertiveness.

Barack Obama attended the Pan Pacific East Asia summit underscoring US involvement in the region. China, which views the pivot as an act of provocation, as well as countries like Vietnam, Philippines and Japan have stepped up their territorial claims in the Western Pacific. What was purportedly aimed at reinforcing America’s role as an ‘anchor of stability and prosperity’, led to more turbulence and belligerence. Russia on its part has also commenced its own slow but strategic pivot to the region. The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Moscow was aimed at revisiting ties with countries with which it had a history of strategic partnership.

India, meanwhile, continued to play its role as a security stabiliser and power balancer in the region. The US, its allies, Japan, Russia and the ASEAN all have been expecting New Delhi to add strategic weight and play a larger role in providing a stable balance of power in Asia.

In what can be termed as the “Broader Asia” concept, India-Japan-US worked out a trilateral engagement to take multi-pronged steps to enhance maritime security and development projects such as linking India and Vietnam through Myanmar, economic assistance to Afghanistan, etc. The year provided continuity to the growing Indo-Japanese ties with both their foreign and defence ministers engaging on security and defence policies and mapping new security challenges and ways to counter these. Closely congruent to this trilateral framework is also the India-Japan-South Korea trilateral talks inaugurated in New Delhi last year. 

It is after 20 years that New Delhi finally geared up to pursue its ‘Look East policy’, a move that US policy makers believe is essential for the integration of Asia-Pacific region under the US umbrella. This has led to signing of Free Trade Agreements and negotiations with the ASEAN nations. Besides, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh paid a visit to Myanmar after a 25-year gap while Suu Kyi visited India after 40 years.

Singh also visited Bangladesh underscoring the importance of the eastern flanks of the Indian sub-continent. Domestic politics, however, played spoilsport as West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee stymied the diplomatic initiative for settling border and other issues involving illegal immigration, insurgency and water-sharing disputes with the neighbor. India’s relations with Maldives also took a beating as the post-coup establishment gave marching orders to an Indian infrastructure giant, for uplifting the Male airport.   

India, however, scored high on reconstruction and stabilising security situation in Afghanistan even as it refused to send troops on the ground. A slew of diplomatic channels-- trilateral meet between Afghanistan, India and the US leaders, National Security advisor’s meeting with his US counterpart and US diplomat Wendy Sherman’s visit to New Delhi were explored. This was topped by President Hamid Karzai’s visit to India.   

Policy pundits on the other hand were busy tactfully balancing India’s military and diplomatic engagement with the US while keeping Chinese sensitivities in mind. The year marked 50 years of the Sino-India war. Both countries continued to engage with each other on policy issues while simultaneously ramping up their defences in key sectors. Shiv Shanker Menon visited China for ‘informal talks’ focusing on maintaining continuity in the wake of transition of power in Beijing.

However, territorial issues continue to be pet peeves for both sides. Aggressive patrolling, visa row and Chinese maps showing Arunachal as a disputed territory have led to tough reactions from New Delhi. It recently asserted claims over South China Sea, stating for the first time, that it was prepared to deploy ships to the disputed waters should its oil exploration interests come under threat. This has been a move away from the studied distance that Indian policy makers have kept from confrontation in western Pacific.

It is no secret that India's foreign policy in the last few years has been shaped more by her economic and energy security interests. The year witnessed defence minister AK Antony’s visit to Saudi Arabia as the entire Gulf has become critical to India's energy and maritime security. This has hastened the pace of diplomatic engagement.

Closer home, differences with Pakistan continued to pester policy makers as they tried to give momentum to economic ties but Islamabad failed to award the Most Favoured Nation status to India. High-level reciprocal visits, including that of the Foreign and Interior Ministers led to signing and making operational a liberal visa agreement. Yet, the 26/11 trial continued to cast its shadow over bilateral ties.

Before year-end, Russia came calling to re-orient the 60-year-old strategic relationship. The visit that led to the signing of defence deals came after being put off for eight months seemingly over Russian unhappiness with New Delhi on several fronts. Notably, Moscow has been courting Islamabad which included a couple of high-level visits to Islamabad and a proposed visit by President Putin, which was later cancelled. India on the other hand has been diversifying its arms suppliers out of frustration with Russian weaponry. But there is hope that the deals would reinforce a long-standing strategic alliance.

Indeed, 2012 has been a year of transition and what would matter the most in the New Year is how well Western governments are able to deal with the looming economic crisis, which will continue to have a bearing on Indian economic, political and security conditions. Besides, developments in the Middle East and brewing conflict between China and Japan over maritime claims waiting to engulf the entire region is going to make 2013 a defining year in international affairs. What is important for India is to get its groove back and address its domestic issues if it wants to add strategic weight to both regional and global developments.--- INFA

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