Round The World

New Delhi, 20 November 2012    

China’s New Leaders: Xi and Co

WILL IT BRING NEW DAWN IN TIES?

By Shreya Upadhyay

Research Scholar, School of International Studies JNU

The secretive but smooth bloodless change of guard in China is being discussed by observers globally. Primarily, whether the new top men would wheedle reforms needed at every realm of policy and governance at the national and international level.

For China the new leadership comes at a time when the country is facing ticklish challenges on domestic and foreign policy fronts. Presently, it is uncomfortable with Hu Jintao’s leadership being under constant attack over high profile corruption cases involving top leaders, slow growth, backward groups marginalization, riots in the countryside and accumulation of powers by the military.

Internally, the liberal polity is being challenged as is maintenance of the export-model, social inequities and tackling corruption. Externally, Sino-US relations, settlement of maritime disputes and safeguarding sea-rights in the West-Pacific region and ties with Japan are bound to engage geo-strategic focus of the new brigade.

Those inside and outside China hoping for a return of the reformist agenda in this fifth- generation leadership would be disappointed. True, the new team is pitched as more global in outlook, having a better understanding of the economy and changing world order. Xi Jinping, son of a revolutionary father who fought Mao Zedong, will replace Hu as China’s President in March 2013. He has vowed to continue economic reforms and the opening process.

Notably, Xi is believed to be close to former Chinese President Jiang Zemin, yet, the Politburo’s Standing Committee which will collectively rule China for the next decade is peppered with many faces who owe allegiance to the Hu faction. Thus, analysts believe that any reformist measure would continue to be checked by Party conservatives and elders as the CPC is about collective leadership.

Moreover, the leadership in the past five years was mired by institutional obstacles created by bureaucratic and interest-group politics. Large State-owned enterprises, internal security apparatus, military and the Communist Party’s conservative wing have controlled policy implementation. This has been inherited by the new team which would have a bearing on domestic politics and articulation of foreign policy.

Already, the Party and Foreign Ministry have signaled Beijing’s foreign policy would not undergo a sea change under the new team.  However, subtle re-orientations could be undertaken to suit China’s economic and strategic interests. On its part, New Delhi has been keenly following the leadership change and preparing to reach out to the ‘new guard’ to ensure continuity along-with new approaches to manage each other’s concerns. A series of high level inter-action between the two countries are on the cards.

Towards that end, National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon will travel to Beijing soon for “strategic issues” talks with his counterpart Dai Bingguo, who is scheduled to retire next March. The talks proposed by Beijing, are expected to ensure continuity in India-China engagement. The Chinese are soon to appoint the next special representative for boundary talks whereby, anyone from Dai’s team would mean continuity in policies and a new person might signal change. Undoubtedly, the situation would provide an opportunity to find new approaches to address each other’s concern and even lower tensions along the disputed border, but a doubt prevails that it might result in a communication gap between the two Foreign Ministries. 

Pertinently, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh met Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit recently and stated that bilateral ties were in a good state and the endeavor was to make these “stronger, wider and deeper”. Wen will make way for new Premier Li Keqiang who will also takeover in March.

Besides, while Xi has visited most countries, including US and South East Asia, he is yet to visit India. New Delhi tried to get him to visit India last year but it failed. Now leaders will engage Xi after he takes over. Also, next week Planning Commission’s Dy Chairman Montek Ahluwalia would meet China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) Chief Zhang Ping for the next strategic and economic dialogue.

India is trying to get China interested in investing in infrastructure creation, particularly railways. Given that trade is a significant factor in normalisation of ties.

Significantly, in order to structurally rebalance its model, Beijing needs to expand its export base by increasing value-added products and open up the services sector whereby India provides a huge market for Chinese goods. Given that China is India's largest trade partner notwithstanding, the trade deficit ballooning to $23 billion in China's favour last month with India continuing to import more than it exports.

Moreover, India has been developing its manufacturing capacity and infrastructure and inviting foreign capital, including from China. Both have a set a target of $100 b of bilateral trade by 2015 which would double by 2020. Last year bilateral trade was $73.90 b but it dropped 8 per cent to $55.6 b in the first 10 months this year. 

As for competing regional influence, both India and China can convert the potential challenges into opportunities. Importantly, leaders of both countries see each other’s presence in West-Pacific and Indian Ocean as an opportunity, not a threat for regional growth.  As long as they do not get involved in the region’s politics, their presence would not be of much concern for either nation.

Based on these common grounds, Sino-Indian relations could become more mature and rational in the coming years. At present China's focus would increasingly be inward and eastward, dealing with problems in the West Pacific region for which it would need more stable and healthy ties with India.  With Washington’s growing military presence in Asia and rumours of India being the ‘lynchpin’ for US military strategy therein, Beijing cannot afford to let its ties with New Delhi deteriorate. Indeed, Obama’s second Administration’s policies towards Asia would have a bearing on both nations.

Interestingly, in his first address Xi said, “Just as China needs to learn more about the world, so does the world need to learn more about China.” This requires increase in dialogue from both sides.  Indeed, as New Delhi engages the new Chinese leadership it is important to strengthen institutional mechanisms and dialogue structures at all levels.

There should be an institutional arrangement for leaders, Parliamentary delegations and officials of both countries to meet more often. No matter, engagement between the neighbours would continue to proceed on guarded lines.

In the ultimate, a key to stable China-India relations lies in positive engagement through trade, high-level interaction and cooperation on global issues. 

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)