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Obama’s 2nd Innings: TOUGH CHALLENGES AHEAD, By Monish Tourangbam, 14 Nov, 2012 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 14 November 2012

Obama’s 2nd Innings

TOUGH CHALLENGES AHEAD

By Monish Tourangbam

(Associate Fellow, Observer Research Foundation)

 

A re-elected President Barack Obama has quite a task ahead of him, indeed. The most daunting of these are related to the American economy. National debt has been ballooning, unemployment remains high and discussions over tax reform have been stuck over partisan differences.

Making matters worse, America is experiencing what is called the ‘fiscal cliff’ by the end of this year, when the Bush era tax cuts will expire, and across the board spending cuts will set in, thus calling for a bipartisan approach to fiscal management. Importantly, both the Democratic and the Republican Parties do not see eye to eye over a host of socio-economic issues including Obama’s healthcare plan, social entitlements, abortion, and same-sex marriage. Hence, the coming days will see how Obama handles the deepening polarization in America and the resultant political dysfunction.

Unlike the election of 2008 when Obama fought on the crest of hope and change, election 2012 was a test of survival for the incumbent facing a stiff challenge from Republican candidate Mitt Romney. The Republican camp fought on the plank that Obama had failed to solve America’s economic problem.   

And given the anaemic economic recovery in the US and near 8 per cent unemployment rate there, Romney’s pitch for election to the White House proved strong enough to give some sleepless nights to the Democratic campaign and Obama’s supporters.  Former Governor of Massachusetts and a successful businessman, Mitt Romney, produced enough firepower to rattle Obama’s chances for re-election throughout the campaign.

But, the President had a sizeable and sustained lead in the Electoral College and Obama’s core support base of African-Americans, women voters, young and university educated professionals, Hispanics and Asian-Americans invested enough confidence in him and helped elect him for another four years. As such, Obama has got himself a second innings to help cement the confidence of his supporters, assure those undecided voters who voted for him that they were not wrong in doing so and also answer his critics.

However, apart from imminent domestic face-offs, foreign policy, where Obama has scored favourable reports, has its own sets of challenges. Number one on Obama’s chore will be its response to Iran’s alleged pursuit of nuclear weapon capability. While President Obama has used sanctions as his major tool against the Iranian regime, he has more than often reiterated that all options were on the table.

But, as hawks in America and in Israel ratchet up pressure on Obama’s administration to act more sternly against Tehran, political and economic repercussions will be felt around the world, including India. New Delhi has indirectly suffered some reverses in terms of decreased crude oil imports from Iran. The Iranian issue, therefore, will be an important factor in the development of Indo-US strategic relationship.

Then, the Arab Spring which rattled the entire Middle East and North Africa has proved to be one of those foreign policy events that will, to some extent, define the contours of the Obama Presidency. The revolutions that swept the entire Arab world came out of the blues, requiring rapid policy responses from the Obama administration. As Assad hangs on in the midst of a bloody civil war in Syria, President Obama has faced increasing pressure from various quarters to give more direct support to the Syrian rebels.

The risk of the transition in post-Gadhaffi Libya was seen recently in the assassination of the American Ambassador Chris Stevens. And this event will continue to raise questions on the nature and extent of America’s support for post-revolution societies including the security of its diplomats and missions in war-afflicted countries.

America’s handling of the drawdown in Afghanistan also requires acute attention from the new Obama administration. Besides the withdrawal from Iraq, the 2014 drawdown from Afghanistan is another foreign policy promise that characterized Obama’s entry to the White House. This decision has direct implications for regional as well as global security. And, India has huge stakes in what pans out in Afghanistan, especially post 2014.

As India’s civilian assistance to Afghanistan increases and plans have been laid out for greater private business ventures, there needs to be more meeting of minds between policymakers in New Delhi and Washington. As Pakistan battles its internal demons, with militants targeting some of its most fortified places with impunity, the safety of its nuclear arsenal is being continually questioned.

This is happening at a time when US-Pakistan relations have been on the decline, particularly since Osama Bin Laden was killed inside Pakistani territories. Pakistan’s decline towards acute insecurity should be worrisome and the coming days of the Obama administration should further define the trajectory of US-Pakistan ties and its impact on India's security calculations.

Then, Obama’s pet project ‘Asia Pivot’ acquires increasing importance for America’s future strategy which looks at reorienting its policy focus towards Asia-Pacific. Though not directly, ‘Asia Pivot’ is being seen as a response to China’s rise in the region and beyond. Notably, China’s trade practices came under serious criticism from both the candidates during the campaign. But at the same time, US-China economic interdependence needs no re-emphasis even as their relationship proves often contentious.

The Obama administration is building relationships beyond alliance partners such as Japan and South Korea to include emerging powers like India and Indonesia. As such, US relations with China and simultaneously, America’s alliance building in the region to offset China’s rising influence will be watched closely by New Delhi and other capitals in the region. Symptomatic of Obama’s insistence on America’s focus on Asia, his first foreign visit, post re-election will reportedly include Cambodia, Thailand and importantly, Myanmar that is undergoing a vulnerable phase of political transition.

Obama has gained tremendous popularity in India and has to, some extent, helped subside perceptions in some quarters of the Indian strategic circle that a Republican President is better for the country, largely suggestive of the Bush years that gave us the Indo-US nuclear deal. The importance of Indo-US relationship has gained a bipartisan support in the US and a change of administration either in Washington or in New Delhi will not affect the emerging strategic partnership between the two nations. Indeed, Obama’s re-election has given a sense of continuity and certainty to the relationship. The next four years will be highly consequential for its future and could help cement working relationships across broad areas of engagement. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

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