Round The World
New Delhi, 14 November 2012
Obama’s 2nd Innings
TOUGH CHALLENGES
AHEAD
By Monish
Tourangbam
(Associate Fellow,
Observer Research Foundation)
A re-elected President Barack
Obama has quite a task ahead of him, indeed. The most daunting of these are related
to the American economy. National debt has been ballooning, unemployment
remains high and discussions over tax reform have been stuck over partisan
differences.
Making matters worse,
America is experiencing what is called the ‘fiscal cliff’ by the end of this
year, when the Bush era tax cuts will expire, and across the board spending
cuts will set in, thus calling for a bipartisan approach to fiscal management. Importantly,
both the Democratic and the Republican Parties do not see eye to eye over a
host of socio-economic issues including Obama’s healthcare plan, social
entitlements, abortion, and same-sex marriage. Hence, the coming days will see
how Obama handles the deepening polarization in America and the resultant political
dysfunction.
Unlike the election of
2008 when Obama fought on the crest of hope and change, election 2012 was a
test of survival for the incumbent facing a stiff challenge from Republican
candidate Mitt Romney. The Republican camp fought on the plank that Obama had
failed to solve America’s
economic problem.
And given the anaemic
economic recovery in the US
and near 8 per cent unemployment rate there, Romney’s pitch for election to the
White House proved strong enough to give some sleepless nights to the
Democratic campaign and Obama’s supporters.
Former Governor of Massachusetts
and a successful businessman, Mitt Romney, produced enough firepower to rattle
Obama’s chances for re-election throughout the campaign.
But, the President had a
sizeable and sustained lead in the Electoral College and Obama’s core support
base of African-Americans, women voters, young and university educated
professionals, Hispanics and Asian-Americans invested enough confidence in him
and helped elect him for another four years. As such, Obama has got himself a
second innings to help cement the confidence of his supporters, assure those
undecided voters who voted for him that they were not wrong in doing so and also
answer his critics.
However, apart from
imminent domestic face-offs, foreign policy, where Obama has scored favourable
reports, has its own sets of challenges. Number one on Obama’s chore will be
its response to Iran’s
alleged pursuit of nuclear weapon capability. While President Obama has used
sanctions as his major tool against the Iranian regime, he has more than often
reiterated that all options were on the table.
But, as hawks in America and in Israel
ratchet up pressure on Obama’s administration to act more sternly against Tehran, political and economic repercussions will be felt
around the world, including India.
New Delhi has indirectly suffered some reverses
in terms of decreased crude oil imports from Iran. The Iranian issue, therefore,
will be an important factor in the development of Indo-US strategic
relationship.
Then, the Arab Spring
which rattled the entire Middle East and North Africa
has proved to be one of those foreign policy events that will, to some extent,
define the contours of the Obama Presidency. The revolutions that swept the
entire Arab world came out of the blues, requiring rapid policy responses from
the Obama administration. As Assad hangs on in the midst of a bloody civil war
in Syria,
President Obama has faced increasing pressure from various quarters to give
more direct support to the Syrian rebels.
The risk of the
transition in post-Gadhaffi Libya
was seen recently in the assassination of the American Ambassador Chris
Stevens. And this event will continue to raise questions on the nature and
extent of America’s
support for post-revolution societies including the security of its diplomats and
missions in war-afflicted countries.
America’s handling of the
drawdown in Afghanistan
also requires acute attention from the new Obama administration. Besides the
withdrawal from Iraq, the
2014 drawdown from Afghanistan
is another foreign policy promise that characterized Obama’s entry to the White
House. This decision has direct implications for regional as well as global
security. And, India has
huge stakes in what pans out in Afghanistan,
especially post 2014.
As India’s civilian assistance to Afghanistan increases and plans have been laid
out for greater private business ventures, there needs to be more meeting of
minds between policymakers in New
Delhi and Washington. As Pakistan battles its internal
demons, with militants targeting some of its most fortified places with
impunity, the safety of its nuclear arsenal is being continually questioned.
This is happening at a
time when US-Pakistan relations have been on the decline, particularly since
Osama Bin Laden was killed inside Pakistani territories. Pakistan’s decline towards acute insecurity
should be worrisome and the coming days of the Obama administration should
further define the trajectory of US-Pakistan ties and its impact on India's
security calculations.
Then, Obama’s pet project
‘Asia Pivot’ acquires increasing importance for America’s future strategy which
looks at reorienting its policy focus towards Asia-Pacific. Though not
directly, ‘Asia Pivot’ is being seen as a response to China’s rise in
the region and beyond. Notably, China’s
trade practices came under serious criticism from both the candidates during
the campaign. But at the same time, US-China economic interdependence needs no
re-emphasis even as their relationship proves often contentious.
The Obama administration is
building relationships beyond alliance partners such as Japan and South
Korea to include emerging powers like India and Indonesia. As such, US relations
with China and simultaneously,
America’s alliance building
in the region to offset China’s
rising influence will be watched closely by New Delhi and other capitals in the region. Symptomatic
of Obama’s insistence on America’s
focus on Asia, his first foreign visit, post re-election will reportedly
include Cambodia, Thailand and importantly, Myanmar that is
undergoing a vulnerable phase of political transition.
Obama has gained tremendous
popularity in India
and has to, some extent, helped subside perceptions in some quarters of the Indian
strategic circle that a Republican President is better for the country, largely
suggestive of the Bush years that gave us the Indo-US nuclear deal. The
importance of Indo-US relationship has gained a bipartisan support in the US and a change of administration either in Washington or in New
Delhi will not affect the emerging strategic
partnership between the two nations. Indeed, Obama’s re-election has given a
sense of continuity and certainty to the relationship. The next four years will
be highly consequential for its future and could help cement working
relationships across broad areas of engagement. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)
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