Round The World

New Delhi, 2 November 2012

Managing Rising Dragon

WILL IT AVERT TURBULENT ASIA?

By Monish Tourangbam

Associate Fellow, Observer Research Foundation (New Delhi)

India, US and Japan held their 3^rd trilateral dialogue in New Delhi recently. The discussion attended by senior officials from the three countries focused on firming up strategies to combat piracy, bolstering maritime security and leveraging their strengths to shape the Asia-Pacific architecture.

Also discussed was a road project linking India and Vietnam through Myanmar, economic assistance to Afghanistan and Sino-Japanese disputes in the East China Sea.

Though China was not explicitly talked about, Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea and its forays into the Indian Ocean became talking points during discussions on maritime security.

Undeniably, India, US and Japan share common interests in preserving strategic stability in Asia in the face of the indubitable rise of Chinese power in the region. This trilateral framework makes strategic sense looking at the trajectory of relations between the three countries involved.

But, the question is: Is it being given the attention and energy it deserves?’ Perturbingly, there was scant media and scholarly attention to this important gathering which is at the heart of the shared issue of managing China’s rise.

Importantly, Beijing is keeping a close watch on these developments. Its Global Times newspaper stated that the practical value of this dialogue was low even if they target China. Contrary to what countries in its vicinity claim, “China is often in a passive position in its backyard and so faces growing worries and pressure.” Adding, “…such tensions will gradually dwindle as the country becomes stronger.”

There is no gainsaying, the peaceful rise of China is anything but peaceful. And a rising China increasingly sees Asia as it zone of hegemonic sphere.

Interestingly, Chinese scholars and analysts who followed the India-Japan-US Trilateral dialogue commented on the increasing convergences between these three nations which were aimed at scuttling China’s rise. The Director of the Asia-Pacific Research Center at China Foreign Affairs University Su Hao argued that Tokyo, while exerting pressure on China from the east, has been using India to create a diversion to China’s west.

Moreover, according to Su, since ties between China and Japan worsened over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands, New Delhi piled pressure on Beijing hoping to gain from the tensions. “However, China didn't soften its stance over the border issue. As a result, India is trying to keep up the pressure,” he noted.

Notably, India’s role as a security stabiliser and power balancer in Asia is increasingly gaining significance. Washington sees its emerging defence relationship with New Delhi as a linchpin of its rebalancing strategy towards Asia-Pacific aka the Asia pivot. Also, the convergences India, Japan and US are beginning to share across a broad spectrum of issues should make this trilateral framework more important in the present scheme of things.

As it stands, India-US cooperation and the range of issues on which they work together are more comprehensive than before. Both Washington and New Delhi are clearer in their support for a more robust India-US relationship, evident in the expanding defence cooperation between the two and the range of military exercises that both have been conducting over the years. 

At the same time, India-Japan relations have seen an upward trend in recent years and successive Japanese Government leaders have given utmost importance to close ties, a gesture reciprocated by New Delhi. India and Japan have also been engaging each other in a 2+2 dialogue wherein the Foreign and Defence Ministries of both countries hold deliberations pertaining to security and defence policies of the two nations, map new security challenges and ways to cooperatively counter them.

Besides, even as China tries hard to show a friendlier face with the help of its economic largesse, countries closer to its vicinity in South-East Asia senses Beijing’s increasing aggression in the South China Sea and thus, do not mind a continued American presence in the area.

Further, Beijing’s increasing military modernisation and its Navy’s deliberate march towards becoming a blue-water navy are a major source of concern. As are worries over aggression in its vicinity and Chinese maritime plans in and around India.

Although the India-Japan-US trilateral dialogue is not projected as targeted towards any single country, there is no pretense when it comes to the issue of managing the rise of China and preventing it from becoming a destabiliser in the region.

Closely congruent to this trilateral framework is also the India-Japan-South Korea trilateral talks inaugurated in New Delhi earlier this year. In that gathering too, China’s increasing aggression in the Asian Continent particularly in the South China Sea was a major component of the dialogue.

Interestingly, of late, emergence of triangular relationships in international politics is an important phenomenon. Given that trilateral arrangements are seen as relatively more manageable; where countries can work on shared interests and at the same time, create a platform to build habits of cooperation. The point is to turn shared values to shared policies and their timely implementation.

Not only this. Trilaterals and other groupings which see China’s rise with some concern know that the agenda is not to disrupt Beijing’s growth but to cooperatively control and prevent any outward negative repercussions of its growing ambitions.

Plainly, nobody desires a total break-up from China but the motive is to nudge Beijing towards recognizing other’s concerns while it firms up its presence around the world, especially in Asia.

True, managing China’s rise does not translate to preparing for a hot war, unimaginable in today’s globalised world, where economic ties go hand-in-hand with strategic rivalries. However, as economic linkages might not translate into strategic convergences, it is imperative to take a long-term view and prepare for the worst.

Even as the trade links of India, US or Japan with China is sizeable enough to prevent a major flare-up, disagreements and mistrust on some specific issues could lead to small skirmishes from time to time.

Pertinently, US seems confident that India’s ‘Look East Policy’ is in the interest of Asian stability. While strategic communities in different Capitals are still surmising the trajectory of the US Asia pivot, this should become clearer once the Presidential election is over and America elects its new Administration.

In sum, India’s coming together with Japan and US to maintain a more stable Asian architecture is a relevant development in the security calculus of the region which should be sustained and reinforced. Any slackening by New Delhi, Tokyo or Washington would give another reason to Beijing to think its aggressiveness in the region would be tolerated because of its economic leverages. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)