Political Diary

New Delhi, 22 September 2012

Economic-Political War-game

UNDER THE NETAS  MONEY TREE

By Poonam I Kaushish

Two + two = Four. Not in political Delhi’s arithmetic. Wherein instead of four it could add up to 5, subtract to 3, remain at two or even total zero! One can never tell with the ring-a-ring roses game our polity plays. All trying to out-maneouver the other dus numberis!

It all started with Trinamool’s capricious Chief Mamata Bannerjee declaring war on the Congress over FDI in multi retail and hike in diesel prices, withdrawing her Ministers and support to the UPA Government, thereby turning it to a minority. Leading to shadow boxing and backroom bargains between Parties for the remaining years of UPA II even as all position themselves for the next general elections in 2013-14.

Flummoxing everyone, “tragic figure and under achiever” Prime Minister Manmohan Singh displayed Singham-style machismo, ignored jibes and pushed ahead with reforms explaining his reasons in an uncharacteristic TV address to the nation. Even pooh-poohed the Bharat Bandh called by the BJP-led NDA and 8 regional Parties including Left for spreading “canards” Thursday last.

Raising a moot point: What was Congress’s end game?  Had Mamata bitten off more than she could chew?  How long would Mulayam and Mayawati play ball with the UPA? Could the BJP capitalise in the emerging state of flux? Where does this leave the Left? 

The Congress strategy seems clear: It has nothing more to lose. Aware it might not bounce back to power in the next poll, why not go down fighting? At least, it would have something to show the aam aadmi.  Also, it knows that no Party including the BJP and MPs wants immediate poll.

All of a sudden there is a spring and aggression in the till-recently comatose Party. Next on the agenda is induction of fresh faces in the impending Cabinet re-shuffle. It is also certain that Manmohan Singh will continue to sit on India’s Raj gaddi while Rahul takes on more visible responsibility in the Party. Today, it is busy strategising to deal with difficult customers, Mulayam and Mayawati.

What of Mamata? Where does she go from here? Her take-it-or-I-leave-UPA posturing appears to be based on calculated strategy that has more to do with West Bengal than national politics. Her apparent madness has a method. Perhaps, Mamata regards the UPA as a sinking ship wherein she has nothing to lose.

Preparing for the eventuality of early election, she is confident of improving her tally in Bengal. This means her importance would only increase in Delhi's hurly-burly post-election politics, giving her a more meaningful role in national politics.

Mamata made three calculations while kicking the UPA. One, by divorcing the Congress, she is saving herself from people's anger over UPA's reform agenda and various scams. Two, she is now master of West Bengal with a free hand to put up 42 candidates for the next Lok Sabha election, no seat-sharing arrangement with the Congress. If she sweeps the State it would catapult her to becoming one of the Prime Ministerial aspirants.

Three, she is now better equipped to fight her arch-rival Left. By ditching the UPA, Mamata not only robbed the CPI-M of its poll plank of fighting tainted UPA's policies but also hijacked the agenda: Turning more Left than Left. Over the past 17 months, she has pulled out all stops to woo the minorities, talking the masses language which supports her kind of politics.

Clearly, Mamata’s loss is UP satraps Mulayam and Mayawati’s gain. While Mulayam supports the Congress on the fallacious plea of “keeping communal forces at bay,” Mayawati remains silent and plays hard ball. Either which way both have increased their bargaining power with the Congress and stabilised the UPA ship.

But this is no cause for comfort for Congress, which knows that their support is based on a combination of self- interest and fear of pending investigations into graft cases. A major worry for Netaji is the disproportionate assets case, awaiting Supreme Court verdict. Fresh trouble over FIRs in the acquisition of Tatra truck deals is also on the anvil. Recall, the Tatra case deals date back to 1997 when Mulayam Singh was the Defence Minister in the Gowda-Gujral United Front Government.

Undeniably, Mulayam adept at simultaneously blowing hot and cold is a staunch believer in the one-step-forward-two-steps-back-policy. Especially against the backdrop that even as he hoots for UPA, he took part in the 8-Party sponsored bandh against Government policies. Alongside, the pehelwan-turned-politician is keen that son Akhilesh has a trouble-free tenure as UP Chief Minister. To this end, a pliable Centre would be invaluable vis-à-vis special funds.

The Congress on its part is following the carrot and stick by engaging with the State Government over a funding game of Rs 93,000 crore package of which only half has been paid that too in dribs and drabs. Leaving room for negotiations when the going gets tough for the Grand Dame.

Out of power in UP, it suits Mayawati’s to have friends at the Centre. But her ties with Sonia hinge on the poll’s timing. She does not favour advancing the general elections as the BSP needs time to regroup to take on bête noire Samajwadi. Thus, with eyes set on capturing UP again it made no sense to ally with other regional outfits and participate in the bandh. Also, post the Supreme Court dismissing two disproportionate assets cases she can breathe easy.

As for the BJP, it is in shambles and struggling with internal issues and contradictions. Its 80-plus Chairman and seven Gen Next leaders are vying for numero uno status.  Moreover, it realizes that any gimmick of up-staging the UPA would lead to the Government reinforcing its numbers.

Though not ruling out early polls, the Saffron Sangh would hate to be seen as responsible for it. With the Congress confident of securing numerical strength for UPA's survival, the BJP acknowledges that its role is limited to wait and watch. It would rather 'capitalise' on UPA allies’ mood to send the message that the Congress had lost confidence, and then intensify its offensive against the Government.

Sadly, the Left Front has been left holding the can, upped by Mamata who has shrewdly hijacked its core theme of pro-poor policies. Though it had been banking on a Congress-Trinamool split to make a comeback in West Bengal, Mamata’s withdrawal has not brought a smile. By walking out, she has clearly taken a lead over the Left. With panchayat elections due soon, Left's opposition to FDI is unlikely to have any rural connect.

In sum, even as our netas bellow Opposition publicly, they coochie-coo privately. Sadly, when one-upmanship politics dictate our leaders’ political ideology and everything is weighed on the voters’ scale there is no hope for the aam aadmi. Specially, when one is pitted against “money growing on the political tree!” What says you, Prime Minister?   

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)