Round The World

New Delhi, 28 August 2012

Forget S China Sea..

WHAT ABOUT EAST CHINA SEA DISPUTE?

Shreya Upadhyay

(Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

The South China Sea conflict regarding competing claims of ownership appears to have overshadowed the little known East China Sea dispute between China and Japan, which has the potential of becoming more intractable for the entire region as well as the US. 

Sporadic incidents over the years have often broken peace around the archipelago of eight uninhabited islands, known as Senkaku islands (in Japanese) and Diaoyu islands (in Chinese). However, the conflict has till now failed to attract the kind of world attention that energy rich South China Sea has got.  

The East China Sea dispute not only revolves around the claim over vast untapped underwater natural resources,  rich fishing grounds and strategic trade routes but more importantly growing nationalistic trends within both China and Japan as their leaders try to bolster their domestic positions by taking tougher stands on issues relating to national pride.

Recently groups of Chinese activists and Japanese nationalists sailed to the islets, respectively leading to a flurry of heated diplomatic exchanges and protests from both sides prompting fears of an armed conflict that could potentially involve the US, China, Japan and other nations.

In the past, this however, was never the case. While the two countries did make claims to the islands, they lacked the military capability or the interest to pursue the issue aggressively. According to the Chinese, the islands first appeared on its maps during the Ming dynasty and its fishermen have been using these since ancient times. They also claim that Japan had annexed the islands in 1895 after winning the First Sino-Japanese War.

Japan, on the other, rubbishes China's historical argument, stating that it discovered the islands in 1884 and annexed in 1895 saying no other nation exercised a formal claim. After World War II, Japan transferred temporary control of the islands to Washington in the 1951 Treaty of San Francisco, which is not recognized by China. Incidentally, Taiwan too has staked claim over the islands. In 1972, the US transferred the islands back to Japan.

In the ‘70s the ultra nationalists from Japan took two goats to the islands to solidify the country’s hold over the islets, which were too remote to be inhabited by humans. Likewise, in 1996, a Japanese group established a lighthouse on one of the islands. Chinese activists since then have sailed repeatedly to the islands. A Hong Kong activist David Chan even jumped into the sea and drowned in 1996. There have also been a few skirmishes between Japanese patrol boats and Chinese or Taiwanese fishing vessels. In 2005, 50 Taiwanese fishing boats staged a protest in the area, complaining of harassment by Japanese patrols.

In September 2010, Japan detained a Chinese trawler that collided with two coast guard vessels near the islands that froze bilateral ties for months. Small anti-Japanese protests were held in several cities in China. Beijing temporarily suspended the export of rare earth elements to Japan, which are used in high-end electronics. In the end, Japan released the entire crew of the trawler and China quickly resumed exports.

Despite these standoffs, armed forces from both the sides played a marginal role – at least in terms of deployments. However, creation of a military garrison and an armed patrol system covering disputed islands in the South China Sea in the recent years have fuelled anxiety among Japanese nationalists with regard to Beijing’s growing military muscle and economic prowess.

The latest flare-up was triggered by right-wing Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara's suggestion in April 2012 to purchase the disputed islands using public money from a private Japanese owner. Within weeks, Tokyo received more than 1 billion yen ($12 million) in donations for the purchase, which is expected to cost between 2 and 3 billion yen. This pushed the central government into making its own offer to buy them sparking angry responses from China.

Since May, there have been reports of China building an Air Force base in Shuimen, 70 km away from the islets. There have also been reports on the presence of J-10 and Sukhoi Su-30 aircraft, as well as S-300 long-range air defence systems. The deployment of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) providing additional surveillance and combat capabilities to the PLAAF is also reportedly likely. In July, Beijing also announced large-scale military exercises in the region. Three Chinese patrol vessels were briefly spotted by the Japanese coastguard in waters near the Senkaku. These movements are being viewed as the efforts to bolster China’s claim to the islets.

A group of Chinese activists sailed to the islands in August. They were detained by Japanese officials but released after two days. In response, about nine of a group of over 100 Japanese nationalists sailed to the island chain, swam ashore to one of the islets and waved Japanese flags. The incident provoked angry responses and protests in the southern Chinese city of Shenzen and several other cities.

On the same day of the demonstrations, Global Times organized a forum in Beijing in which suggestions including placing mines in surrounding waters, using the islands as a target for Chinese air-force bombing practice and naming China’s new aircraft-carrier Diaoyu were shared. The People’s China Daily has already termed Senkaku islands as the area of “core interest” in January 2012. The remarks may or may not show government’s posture but are reminiscent of the rising hard-line views among certain sections.

It is clear that a small band of nationalists from both the sides are pushing their respective countries against one another. Experts have termed it as international tug of war in the region. China would like control over the islands to advance military capabilities and enlarge its security sphere as well as check naval presence of the US and its allies. On the other hand, the Japanese nationalists are concerned over their country’s fading economy and global status in contrast to China’s rising economic status and growing territorial ambitions. Both the countries face strong domestic pressure to take tough stands on matters of national territory.

Notably, despite the ongoing political tension, trade and commerce between Japan and China has prospered over the past 20 years. Moreover, China is aware that in case of any military confrontation, the US would be an ally of Japan in accordance with Article 5 of its Security Treaty, which spells out that an armed attack against either State would prompt each to "act to meet the common danger." While the US has interest in ensuring that China does not coerce neighbours into accepting outcomes against their national interests, yet in the times of economic difficulties expecting American military commitments would be impractical.  

While it is doubtful the issue will escalate into a full-blown war as all parties are aware of the costs of a large-scale conflict, an unintended exchange of fire due to miscalculation cannot be ruled out, which can snowball into a bigger clash It is thus crucial that further escalation of the dispute must be prevented and the issue be settled peacefully through a multilateral dialogue mechanism. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)