Round The World

New Delhi, 14 August 2012

Afghanistan’s ‘Green-on-blue’

WHEN ‘SURGE’ & ‘SPLURGE DISAPPOINT

By Obja Borah Hazarika

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

The run-up to the NATO combat missions’ withdrawal from Afghanistan seems to be bedeviled with arduous challenges. Undeniably, the Obama Administration’s Af-Pak policy has fetched an ignominiously large death toll wherein Afghanistan seems murkier than ever before. With Presidential elections slated for November, the US might be unable to affect much change in the processes in Afghanistan.

Importantly, despite the ‘surge’ and ‘splurge’ tactics employed by Washington, Afghanistan remains a quagmire where challenges continue to mount. True, Obama inherited a war which he could not successfully end. The US continues to struggle with tenuous conditions erupting there with no cohesive plan to reverse these macabre trends.

Indeed, a decade long involvement in a region far away from its borders nearing its terminal end with lethal repercussions could continue into the future. Wherein, the drawdown of troops, slated for 2014, has begun to appear particularly frightening proposition to many in Afghanistan’s neighborhood, and to the world at large.

This year alone, 34 coalition members have died at the hands of Afghan forces, trained by NATO forces. Pertinently, this violence is being dubbed as ‘Green-on-blue’ attacks and the blame apportioned on ‘Taliban infiltrators’, in Afghan security forces ranks. Significantly, the rise of ‘Green-on-blue’ attacks (assaults by Afghan troops on official’s in-charge of their training), warrants deeper reflection.

One explanation gaining ground is personal disputes and grievances against coalition forces. Two, a case is being made to call these assaults ‘isolated incidents’ and not a testimony of the NATO mission’s shortcomings in Afghanistan.

Notably, the failure of integrating Afghan security forces to NATO’s vision of governance and the inability to form a cohesive and stable Afghan security force to ease the draw-down enabling a successful transition in 2014 seems apparent.

Thus, marking NATO’s mission a gargantuan disappointment. The ‘Green-on-blue’ attacks continue to escalate, and are almost always committed by Afghan security members who have close working relationships with NATO forces.  This situation has led to the creation of an armed compatriot’s cadre, the ‘guardian angels’ whose job is to protect NATO officials from such attacks.

Also, these attacks could be a manifestation of the local populace’s frustration with the continuing US presence in Afghanistan. However, the more important question is regarding the state of NATO’s mission in the country. The gigantic cost of training Afghan security forces is yielding NATO officials deaths instead of creating a dedicated and reliable Afghan-owned security structure.

‘Taliban infiltration’ or not, the ‘Green-on-blue’ attacks continue to escalate and underscore the daunting tasks which remain to be completed. Moreover, the NATO forces inability to transform and build a secure Afghan security architecture will lead to devastating implications which need to be prevented. The problem is: While the attacks continue to increase the draw-down date is set. Compounded by coalition forces remaining impotent.

Besides, in another recent development, the Afghan Parliament ordered President Hamid Karzai to replace the country's defense and interior Ministers. The no-confidence votes signalled Parliament’s deep dissatisfaction with Karzai’s Administration's weak response to recent cross-border attacks from Pakistan, along-with its inability to halt a spate of assassinations of top Afghan officials and crack down on corruption within the security forces.

Furthermore, the votes of no-confidence come at a critical time in the war when Afghan police and soldiers are increasingly taking responsibility from international troops. With the loss of faith in Ministers, the Administration’s internal weakness has been exposed.  

Such in-house dissensions make it easier for forces to exploit differences, thereby making the already unstable political situation even more volatile in Afghanistan. The Administration’s tenuous grasp over the political situation bodes unfavorably vis-à-vis the rate of preparedness the country can muster by the time the coalition troops withdraw in 2014.

Additionally, Taliban and other insurgent groups have continued to target Afghan Government officials in assassination attempts, raising the possibility of many more such killings as NATO forces begins troop withdrawal. The inability of coalition members to prevent attacks on high-profile officials reinforces the incompetence of coalition members and is a conspicuous reflection of the Afghan forces unpreparedness set to inherit security responsibilities next year.

More. Pakistan continues to play an instrumental role in Afghanistan’s unfolding situation. Recently, ISI Chief Zaheer ul-Islam visited US to focus on increasing intelligence cooperation between the two nations. As US-Pakistan coordination remains crucial to enable a peaceful transition in Afghanistan.

Zaheer’s visit was significant given the fact that Islamabad had re-opened routes for NATO supplies to Afghanistan last month. Also, Pakistan’s calculations for post-NATO withdrawal period are linked to sustaining a working relationship with groups which come to power in Afghanistan and thereby prevent India from increasing its presence there.

Additionally, Pakistan’s role in helping US combat terror has been at best modest. Even as Washington continues to refer to Islamabad as an important ally, this rhetoric emanates from the position of dependence which US finds itself in vis-à-vis ties with Pakistan when it comes to dealing with the situation in Afghanistan.

Nonetheless, Pakistan will remain significant with regard to US’s policies on Afghanistan. Washington continues to rely on Islamabad, which is fraught with complications of its own. This ranges from poverty, insurgency and weak domestic political control, making its ability to help US effort rather limited and circumscribed.

In a recent report, Pakistan confirmed that it was in talks with Afghanistan over the release of some Taliban prisoners in Pakistani jails. An important prisoner is Mullah Baradar who was arrested from Karachi in a joint operation with US in February 2010. The release of such prisoners could be an uphill task for Islamabad to substantiate, given the ongoing efforts by Karzai’s Government to talk to Taliban to prop up a ruling arrangement in Kabul ahead of NATO forces draw-down in 2014.

Such overtures by Pakistan to free Taliban’s prisoners could set a flawed precedent for the future, given that the Taliban continues to enjoy support in Afghanistan. With the removal of coalition troops and the release of Taliban’s strongmen; it could lead to a heady combination even for Pakistan to tackle in the near future.  

In sum, the US war in Afghanistan may be come to its end in 2014, but till date Washington has had little success. There is no gainsaying, with its domestic administration in disarray, incompetent security forces and a wobbly and unsteady Pakistan  for a neighbour, US will be forsaking not only the locals in Afghanistan but also be condemning the larger region to years of turbulence and hardships. ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)