Political Diary

New Delhi, 28 July 2012

Assam Was Waiting To Happen

SITTING ATOP VOLATILE VOLCANO

By Poonam I Kaushish

What does one do when one is sitting on a tinder box? Sane people would post haste douse the flames. But if one are the Government of India and Assam Government you indulge in a finger-pointing blame game. Notwithstanding, that the State is caught in the crosshairs of bloodshed, violence and destruction arising out of ethnic clashes between the Bodos and Muslim immigrants in four districts After all, people total mere statistics!

Ouch. Think, amidst its biggest humanitarian crisis with over 50 dead and counting and 4 lakh homeless dotting 270 refugee camps, all Assam’s Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi could do is blame the Centre: “"If they had intelligence reports, why did they not act on their own?  I requested for security forces, but they said had requirements across the country...So I cannot do anything.”

The Centre hit back, outrightly rubbishing Gogoi’s and washing its hands off: “We forwarded Assam's requisition to the Defence Ministry on 23 July and troops were sent two days later.” Matter didn’t end there. Gogoi blamed the previous NDA regime for playing vote-bank politics. They are responsible and they keep accusing us.” Both busy denying that the chickens have come home to roost.

Undoubtedly, both the State and the Centre are to blame. In spite of knowing that Assam has a history of sectarian violence, the State did not read the signs of conflagration building up. The Centre too acted lahee, lahee underscoring the wide disconnect and lack of coordination between the State and Centre, even though both are ruled by the Congress. Both had learnt no lesson from the 1983 Nellie massacre that left 3,000 people dead.

Arguably, Assam isn't just a multi-ethnic, multi-religious State, it is an explosive mix of contestations on sovereignty, multiple layers of feelings of exploitation and injustice, terrorism, tussles over resources, political polarisation and competitive identity management made worse by tensions between settlers and immigrants.

As matters stand, 9 of Assam’s 27 districts have a Muslim majority population and hold the key for 60 of its 126 Assembly constituencies. About 57 constituencies showed more than 20 per cent increase in the number of voters in three years, 1994-97. Over 85% of the total encroached forest land is with the Bangladeshis.

According to intelligence reports, “In the 70 years between 1901 and 1971, Assam’s population increased from 3.29 million to 14.6 million – a 343.77 % increase” over a period when the population of India went up by only about 150 per cent! Most of the State’s agriculture production is in the migrants hands. Who also makes up the largest chunk of labour engaged in construction activities; over 80% cycle-rickshaws are pedalled by them.

And New Delhi’s reaction? Tragic, to say the least. Thanks to our polity’s petty politics and penchant for power at all costs they have not only sacrificed national imperatives but also unleashed a hydra-headed monster. Unfortunately all political parties seem to be turning a blind eye to this menace as illegal migrants are tailor-made to increase their vote banks. Most political parties use the “imported” migrants to inflate their vote bank by sympathizing with them for their short-term gain. Ignoring the long-term serious consequences for the country.

Any wonder that all parties talk about the need to put a stop to this. But when push comes to shove, mum is the word. In this scenario where electoral politics reigns supreme, national integration goes by default.

Where do we go from here? Pander to rabid rabble rousers? Pander to the politics of vote banks? Allow the Push and pull theory of illegality to continue. The Push back to poverty vs. the Pull of India’s rich pastures. The option is narrow. The solution must by clearly dictated by India’s primary interest---its integrity and stability. Kashmir must not be repeated elsewhere.

Sadly, all seem to be clueless. Every time a crisis looms large, fire- fighting measures and quick-fix solutions are put into force without either understanding the issues involved or any comprehensive plan to resolve the crisis. Myopic in its introspection, the Centre unfortunately ends up mostly reacting, instead of looking ahead and acting. Crisis over the State is forgotten till another crisis erupts. Curing the symptoms not the disease.

What next? Is the Government capable of defusing this power keg? Is it willing to acknowledge without any sugar-coating that a grave problem exists before we can decide on the cure? That the situation is worse than Kashmir as local sentiments are running high in the entire region. How much more innocent blood must be spilled before the Centre takes the required action on the ground?

It is time for the Centre to see the writing on the wall. Prolonged inaction has already proved too costly. Self-serving decisions of minority and militant appeasement will not do. Ill-advised measures only create discords. No longer can New Delhi afford to neglect the North- East. The wages are too grave to fritter away.

For starters, the Home Ministry should come out with a White Paper disclosing the harsh facts and spelling out the UPA Government’s plans to combat this serious threat to India’s freedom and integrity. All bonafide Indians must be issued multi-purpose identity cards to establish their Indian identity well and truly by way of a birth certificate and proof of lineage. Mere ration cards must not do.

Today, most Bangladeshis flaunt these to avoid deportation. If necessary, work permits could be issued to the Bangladeshis for, say, two years. With a firm rider: No voting rights and no permanent settlement. North Block also needs to look at its immigration laws and plug the loopholes.

In the final analysis, New Delhi needs to understand that the issue of illegal migrants from Bangladesh is no longer a humanitarian issue dictated by the theory of needs or economics driven. It is a critical demographic, economic and national security problem. Clearly, the time is far gone to pussy-foot the issue. Beyond containment of violence, then, what Assam needs is a serious, broad-based dialogue which seeks to address the legitimate concerns and aspirations of all citizens.

Is the Government capable of defusing this treacherous power keg? Mere assurance of being pro-active will no longer do. The Centre needs to brace itself for a long and hard struggle ahead. The poison of vote-bank must end. No sane and self respecting country allows foreigners and their protectors to play ducks and drakes with national integrity and security.

It is still not too late. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh may choose to maintain discreet silence but this should not be at the cost of national interest. The need of the hour is to understand the seriousness, deal assertively with the issues and set up time-bound measures once and for all. Friendship with Bangladesh is all very well. But it cannot be at the cost of our national interest. Clearly, it is time to bell the big fat cat. Stop using people as dummy punching bags! ----INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)