Round The World

New Delhi, 3 July 2012

India-Japan-South Korea Dialogue

 CHINA’S SOUTH CHINA SEA FORAYS

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

India's 'Look East Policy' got a significant boost post the 1st India-Japan-South Korea trilateral dialogue held recently in New Delhi. Importantly, China's rising aggression and prevarication in the Asian Continent particularly in the South China Sea was a major strategic component of India’s communication with these countries. As India, Japan and S Korea are not only major Asian powers but also functioning democracies they share noteworthy convergence on the sustenance of strategic stability in Asia.

Of late, emergence of triangular relationships in international politics has been a significant phenomenon with powers including US making efforts to go beyond bilateral to forms triangles in view of the changing strategic landscapes. In fact, there is an India-US-Japan trilateral as well, also to manage the rise of China.

In the present context, India's relations with both Japan and S Korea have developed into mature and trusted partnerships over the years and successfully infused growing confidence, across many issues, including the crucial nuclear negotiations. 

Recall, after the Fukushima disaster and acute domestic concerns in Japan against the use of nuclear energy, there was a U-turn in New Delhi’s nuclear negotiations with Tokyo. Nevertheless, the understanding that Japan eventually gave to India's civilian nuclear energy aspirations did manage to take ties to another level resulting in positive dividends across other issues.

Pertinently, India's nuclear negotiations with S Korea continue to gather steam and forms a pivotal part of New Delhi’s growing strategic ties with Seoul. Also, India and S Korea have decided to boost their cooperation in civilian nuclear energy and space, including the launch of Korean satellites by India in separate negotiations.

Significantly, economic content dominates New Delhi’s ties with both countries. As a part of its Look East Policy, India's trade proportions with South-East Asian and East Asian countries have seen a major upward trend. Despite Beijing’s reluctance, New Delhi has managed to substantially increase its role in various regional organisations like ASEAN, ASEAN regional forum and the East Asia Summit. 

Moreover, the comprehensive trade partnerships with both Japan and S Korea have shown positive results, in terms of “trade enhancement, investments and opportunities for professionals.” For instance, India’s IT presence in both countries is growing and one only needs to see Indian markets to recognise the success of  Japanese and Korean brands specially in electronics and automobile sectors.

But unlike economic ties with China that are accompanied with concern regarding Beijing’s strategic behaviour and muscle-flexing in the region, there is no such plague in India's relations with Japan and S Korea. The shared strategic vision of a secure and stable Asia among them gives depth to the relationship. Today, Japan’s vehement criticism of India's nuclear energy aspirations by slapping a battery of sanctions post the 1998 Pokhran tests is history.

Undeniably, there has been a significant turnaround over the years, especially after the Indo-US nuclear deal and subsequent waiver for India at the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) which opened a floodgate allowing erstwhile nuclear critics to negotiate civilian nuclear commerce with India. Japan even decided to lift its decades-old ban on arms exports. Overtures which have not escaped the eyes and ears of Chinese strategic circle.

Add to this, China's blatant propagation of exclusive sovereignty in the South China Sea and its aggressive response to other joint ventures, including those of India with other South-East Asian countries like Vietnam has increased strategic tensions in the area. The Sea’s disputed waters are claimed in whole or in part by Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia besides China.

In view of these contesting claims, Beijing’s behaviour has attracted the ire of other countries, including US which sees a role for itself in the Asia-Pacific region. Washington’s newly emphasised re-balancing strategy towards Asia-Pacific adds more dimensions to a possible strategic face-off in the South China Sea region. 

Further, Beijing’s increasing military modernisation and its Navy’s deliberate march towards becoming a blue-water navy are a major source of concern. Besides aggression in its vicinity, Chinese maritime plans in and around India are raising concerns among strategic circles.

Indeed, Beijing which projects itself as a ‘peaceful nation’ intent on a “peaceful rise” is showing its arrogance of power and influence in the disputed South China Sea. Yet it has turned a deaf ear to New Delhi’s concerns regarding its questionable activities and investments in the disputed Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK).

True, New Delhi has no intention of muddying waters in the Asian region and neither strategic ambitions of stoking rivalries and conflicts among countries. But “China” in the South China Sea does not translate into Beijing’s supreme authority over the maritime resources of the region. Consequently, this concern is shared by many Capitals in the region and beyond.

Arguably, managing China’s rise does not translate to preparing for a hot war, unimaginable in today’s globalised world, where economic ties go hand-in-hand with strategic rivalries. However, as economic linkages might not translate into strategic convergences, it is imperative to take a long-term view and prepare for the worst.

Asserted Sanjay Singh, Secretary (East) in the Foreign Ministry, “There is common commitment to maintaining freedom of the seas, combating terrorism and promoting inclusive economic growth. India, Japan and ROK depend heavily on the Sea Lanes of Communications (SLOCs) for their energy security.”

Raising common concern, he emphasised that the South China Sea was “witnessing competing claims” and the “common objective” was “to see that the seas and oceans become regions of co-operation instead of competition particularly as our energy security and trade depends on them.”

Undoubtedly, with the launch of the India-Japan-South Korea dialogue, New Delhi adds another chapter to its re-energised Look East Policy extending the frontiers and scale of its partnerships in the region. But it is more important to see if this dialogue will remain just another fixture on the diplomatic calendar, or it will add some meat to the Asian security structure that India desires to develop with other like-minded partners in the Asian Continent, of which Japan and South Korea are primary.

Notably, the trilateral framework will now be taken forward by the three partnering institutions which includes India's premier defence think tank Institute for Defence and Strategic Analyses (IDSA), Korea National Diplomatic Academy and Tokyo Foundation in terms of providing it "with meaning and substance."

Lacing this triangular framework with strategic substance and justification would be the work of experts from these institutions. To give more teeth to the whole endeavour but subtle at the same time would be a major contribution. The discourse among these three countries should be inclusive and broad-based. Subsequent dialogues are to be held in Tokyo and Seoul. ----- INFA  

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