Round The World

New Delhi, 21 June 2012

Pak PM Dismissed

PREPARE FOR GOODWILL & MALICE

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

The continuing political circus in Pakistan claimed its first casualty: Yousuf Raza Gilani lost his Prime Ministership following a long-anticipated Supreme Court order disqualifying him, post his conviction on 26 April. True, Gilani was neither arrested nor jailed but symbolically sentenced till the Court’s rising for refusing to re-open corruption cases against President Zardari.

In fact, Pakistan’s other Constitutional pillar, Chief Justice Iftikar Chaudhary had made plain that Gilani Constitutionally ceased to be Prime Minister following his disqualification from Parliament’s membership in April.

At the centre of this unfolding drama was the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), a graft amnesty order issued by then President Musharraf in 2007 under which Zardari was granted amnesty. Therefore, Gilani refused to obey the Court’s order and write to Swiss authorities to open corruption against the President, arguing that Zardari enjoyed immunity under Pakistan’s Constitution.

But with the Supreme Court declaring the NRO unconstitutional in 2009, dark clouds were hovering over Gilani’s Premiership yet there was also a feeling that he might survive till the next elections. Thus, making his the longest serving civilian Government in Pakistan’s history and the only one to complete a full term. Alas, that was not to be!

Significantly, democracy’s weak record in Pakistan looks set to continue whereby a judiciary on “protein diet” managed its own coup, opening up more fissures and raising many uncomfortable questions concerning Pakistan’s future.  Namely, Gilani’s conviction and dismissal has regaled him in political wilderness. Also, the country is set for political churning.

Amidst the rising economic uncertainty and the deteriorating security situation, Islamabad’s ‘power seat’ is going to be unbearably hot, no matter who comes to power. Latest reports state the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has named senior leader Makhdoom Shahabuddin as Premier. But, he does not warrant much attention as whoever becomes the Prime Minister is only a stop-gap before fresh elections are held.

Indeed, various permutations and combinations are being touted by Parties, national and regional. New political stars like former cricketer Imran Khan and the rising stature of his Party have added new dynamics to Pakistan’s political set-up.

Simultaneously, the judiciary which has taken an overt political role for itself with Chief Justice Chaudhary fashioning himself as a crusader against corruption and political watchman is facing serious flak. A leading businessman Malik Riaz has alleged that he paid millions of dollars bribes to Chaudhary’s son to influence Supreme Court rulings.

Thus, nothing seems to be working in Pakistan. The economy is in shambles, coupled with long power cuts, compounded by insurgency in Baluchistan wherein even the fortified State apparatuses are not secure from Islamic insurgents. Add to this, ties with Big Brother US are going through a rough patch topped by major institutions being at loggerheads with each other. Undeniably, in this scenario, when nothing seems to be going right and none holding the right cards, fear of a military takeover is palpable yet again.

There is no gainsaying, the military, a symbol of stability, has been at the centre of Pakistan’s politics and a situation like the present one is ripe for military intervention. But, the military stands discredited and faces two-pronged criticism since Osama Bin Laden was hunted down. One, it is accused of connivance or incompetence as Osama was found in garrison town Abottabad, a stone’s throw away from the military academy.

Two, the military has lost face for having allowed the US army to carry out Operation Osama on Pakistani soil. Add to this, the ‘Memogate scandal’ is far from over in which the army and ISI are deeply entrenched resulting in a fiasco which pits the civilian authorities against the military.

Moreover, the strain in US-Pakistan ties severely restricts the ability of the Pakistani military to fashion a successful coup and sustain it. So, unlike in the past, there are serious doubts as to whether the military would take the plunge. If truth be told, in the run-up to the developments which led to Gilani’s dismissal, the PPP repeatedly tried to pit Parliament against the judiciary to prove Parliament’s supremacy.

Raising a moot point: Why didn’t the PPP stand up for its leader Gilani? Why did it accept the judicial verdict so quickly?

According to sources, the PPP-led Government tried to justify their decision asserting they accepted the verdict with “strong reservations” in order to save the democratic system coupled with the fear of intervention by un-democratic forces. On the contrary, others observe that the PPP accepted the verdict to continue in power which could be disrupted by a public backlash. Perhaps, a lawyers-led movement if the PPP had defied the verdict.

Coalition partners’ pressure was another factor. Clearly, the PPP-led Government did not want a political confrontation with the judiciary leading to an institutional limbo at the Centre, which would result in criticism for the Government by an electorate that sees Pakistan caught in a vortex of problems with no end in sight.

This raises another question: If the whole political circus resulting in Prime Minister’s dismissal was about his refusal to open Zardari’s corruption cases, then how would Gilani’s dismissal bring any major change? Notwithstanding, who comes becomes Prime Minister, would not the judiciary demand the new leader to do the same?

If it does, how would the new Premier respond and how would the Chief Justice counter-respond? If he doesn’t, then what was the point in removing a Prime Minister who was supposed to complete the first full term in office for any civilian Government in Pakistan? Answers which are not forthcoming.

In sum, the unfolding events in Pakistan and the looming uncertainty over its political trajectory are largely internal in nature and it is for the Pakistanis to deal with. However, India needs to prepare for goodwill and malice. Of late, leaders of both countries have seen a thaw, with efforts being made to lend more economic value to the relationship, sustaining the tempo through continuation of high level visits and agreeing to talk on contentious issues such as Siachen and Sir Creek.

Undoubtedly, New Delhi’s job is to maintain lines of contact and communication with whoever comes to power in Islamabad. Whereby, efforts to bridge the gaps should not be affected by Pakistan’s current political turmoil, at least from our side. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and  Feature Alliance)