Round The World
New Delhi, 24 April 2012
Missile for Missiles
INDO-CHINA TIES: WHERE TO?
By Monish Tourangbam
Research Scholar, School of
International Studies (JNU)
India’s successful testing of the nuclear
capable long-range Agni V missile has sparked an intense debate on India-China
relations, specially against the back drop of the military modernisation drive
in both countries. Agni V is the latest in the Agni series of rockets India has been
developing as part of its Integrated Missile Development Project launched in
the early 1980s. Whereby, Agni V with a range of 5,000 km is being marketed as
being China-centric, possessing technology to reach all major Chinese cities.
Indeed, Agni V is a proud moment not
only for the defence research community but also for national jubilation,
notwithstanding media emphasis on the China angle is uncalled for. Clearly,
now India joins the big
league, and moved a big step towards nuclear deterrence vis-à-vis China.
But, does nationalistic jingoism
augur well for the country which prides itself as being one of the most
responsible world powers? Actions speak
louder than words in international diplomacy. Given that the missile’s test
came after North Korea’s
failed rocket launch. While Pyongyang faced a
barrage of condemnation, New Delhi
did not get any negative response. Moreover, it gained confidence and
acknowledgment unlike pariah nations like North Korea, with its highly
discredited regime and rogue nuclear programme. Commented an analyst, “It’s not
the spear, but who holds the spear that matters.”
Pertinently, India post
acquiring the responsible and emerging world power tag should handle its
technological milestones with more diplomatic subtlety and finesse. New Delhi has come a long
way since its 1974 and 1998 nuclear tests which elicited strong condemnation world-wide
including sanctions from many countries. Having proved its clean
non-proliferation record, it is today is a sought after consumer in the
international nuclear market. As it takes the ‘no-first-use policy’ seriously
and is known not to be trigger-happy.
In a guarded response to Agni V
test, US State Department spokesperson while urging all nuclear-capable countries
to exercise restraint about their nuclear capabilities also highlighted "India has a
solid non-proliferation record.” NATO’s Secretary General Ander Fogh Rasmussen
in a revealing comment added that the trans-Atlantic alliance does not see India as a
‘threat’. Some Chinese experts even felt the Agni-V range was actually longer
than the projected 5,000 kms and that New
Delhi was deliberately downplaying it to avoid
international concerns.
Undeniably, India’s increasing
military expenditure and China’s mammoth armed modernisation has attracted
attention; with the Chinese media even accusing western powers of overlooking new
Delhi’s military ambitions. But, figures tell a different story. According to the International Institute for
Strategic Studies, China's
military spending in 2011 was $89 billion, 5.5 % of total global figures while India's was $37
billion, 2.3%. But, in China’s
case the actual amount was estimated to be higher as a significant part of Beijing’s defense budget is
unreported.
The Chinese Communist Party-run
newspaper The Global Times known to
be critical of India while publishing nationalistic editorials
underscored New Delhi
“should not overestimate its strength.”
The daily sought to project that India
had a lot of catching up to do with China
adding, “For the foreseeable future, India
would stand no chance in an overall arms race with China.”
True, despite the Government terming
the Agni V missile test as a “game changer”, strategic analysts sought to put New Delhi on a reality
check. It is common knowledge that China
is ahead of India in its
military drive, and the recent achievement was just one step more in matching Beijing’s military might.
Besides, while China’s ambitions are
being seen as global in nature specially US-centric rather than being dictated
by India’s rise, New Delhi continues to be vigilant of Beijing’s moves. In a
sober reminder of its celebratory status, a prominent analyst asserted, “We are
still way behind China.
In terms of missile numbers, range and quality, they are way ahead of us”.
Adding, “There’s a dearth of real strategy on how to actually deploy missile
technology.”
Additionally, India does have
not a good record when it comes to inducting its weapon systems in time. Due to
bureaucratic inertia, many projects remain behind schedule. For instance, Agni
V still has to pass more tests to confirm its flight path, accuracy and overall
competence before production can begin.
Needless to say, the defence
bureaucracy along-with the External Affairs Ministry needs to fashion a
long-term strategic view and involve experts from think-tanks and universities
to make technological achievements coherent with India’s strategic goals as also the
steps taken to achieve them.
The debate on India’s missile developments matching China’s is just a part of the larger game
involving the current balance of power in Asia
which has huge implications in the global strategic structure. With the US in relative decline China is being
seen as the next probable super power. This is guess work. But, there is no
doubt regarding Beijing’s
increasing might both economically and militarily. This is a cause of worry for
neighbouring countries like India
which aspires to carve out its own place.
Undoubtedly, India and China are huge countries with the
world’s largest populations and immense economic potential. But at the same time
they share a troubled history which continues to poison current relations, namely,
an unresolved border dispute which caused the 1962 war. Despite growing trade ties,
characterized by a trade deficit against India, relations have not moved
ahead and fears linger of another possible conflict over contentious issues.
Both countries are competing for resources and alliances with other Asian countries.
Compounding matters, Washington might be wary of increasing Chinese might yet intensively
engages Beijing in the economic field which
makes New Delhi
uncomfortable. India is
adverse to the idea of a G2 with China and US as the two ultimate
poles of power in international politics.
Furthermore, China’s relations with Pakistan, worries India
and likewise New Delhi’s emerging strategic
partnership with Washington, projected as a
counter-weight to China irks
Beijing. Hence,
as power continues to shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific, from the West to
the East, the complex relations between India
and China
will to a large extent determine the contours of international politics.
Thus, each technological achievement
like the Agni V test needs to be backed by active diplomacy that strives most
particularly for instituting a sustainable bilateral nuclear dialogue and
operationalisation of communication links to prevent any flare-up thereby disturbing
stability in the region. ----- INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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