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Missile for Missiles: INDO-CHINA TIES: WHERE TO?, by Monish Tourangbam, 24 April, 2012 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 24 April 2012

Missile for Missiles

INDO-CHINA TIES: WHERE TO?

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

 

India’s successful testing of the nuclear capable long-range Agni V missile has sparked an intense debate on India-China relations, specially against the back drop of the military modernisation drive in both countries. Agni V is the latest in the Agni series of rockets India has been developing as part of its Integrated Missile Development Project launched in the early 1980s. Whereby, Agni V with a range of 5,000 km is being marketed as being China-centric, possessing technology to reach all major Chinese cities.

Indeed, Agni V is a proud moment not only for the defence research community but also for national jubilation, notwithstanding media emphasis on the China angle is uncalled for. Clearly, now India joins the big league, and moved a big step towards nuclear deterrence vis-à-vis China.

But, does nationalistic jingoism augur well for the country which prides itself as being one of the most responsible world powers?  Actions speak louder than words in international diplomacy. Given that the missile’s test came after North Korea’s failed rocket launch. While Pyongyang faced a barrage of condemnation, New Delhi did not get any negative response. Moreover, it gained confidence and acknowledgment unlike pariah nations like North Korea, with its highly discredited regime and rogue nuclear programme. Commented an analyst, “It’s not the spear, but who holds the spear that matters.”

Pertinently, India post acquiring the responsible and emerging world power tag should handle its technological milestones with more diplomatic subtlety and finesse. New Delhi has come a long way since its 1974 and 1998 nuclear tests which elicited strong condemnation world-wide including sanctions from many countries. Having proved its clean non-proliferation record, it is today is a sought after consumer in the international nuclear market. As it takes the ‘no-first-use policy’ seriously and is known not to be trigger-happy. 

In a guarded response to Agni V test, US State Department spokesperson while urging all nuclear-capable countries to exercise restraint about their nuclear capabilities also highlighted "India has a solid non-proliferation record.” NATO’s Secretary General Ander Fogh Rasmussen in a revealing comment added that the trans-Atlantic alliance does not see India as a ‘threat’. Some Chinese experts even felt the Agni-V range was actually longer than the projected 5,000 kms and that New Delhi was deliberately downplaying it to avoid international concerns.

Undeniably, India’s increasing military expenditure and China’s mammoth armed modernisation has attracted attention; with the Chinese media even accusing western powers of overlooking new Delhi’s military ambitions. But, figures tell a different story.  According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, China's military spending in 2011 was $89 billion, 5.5 % of total global figures while India's was $37 billion, 2.3%. But, in China’s case the actual amount was estimated to be higher as a significant part of Beijing’s defense budget is unreported.

The Chinese Communist Party-run newspaper The Global Times known to be critical of India while publishing nationalistic editorials underscored New Delhi “should not overestimate its strength.”  The daily sought to project that India had a lot of catching up to do with China adding, “For the foreseeable future, India would stand no chance in an overall arms race with China.” 

True, despite the Government terming the Agni V missile test as a “game changer”, strategic analysts sought to put New Delhi on a reality check. It is common knowledge that China is ahead of India in its military drive, and the recent achievement was just one step more in matching Beijing’s military might.

Besides, while China’s ambitions are being seen as global in nature specially US-centric rather than being dictated by India’s rise, New Delhi continues to be vigilant of Beijing’s moves. In a sober reminder of its celebratory status, a prominent analyst asserted, “We are still way behind China. In terms of missile numbers, range and quality, they are way ahead of us”. Adding, “There’s a dearth of real strategy on how to actually deploy missile technology.” 

Additionally, India does have not a good record when it comes to inducting its weapon systems in time. Due to bureaucratic inertia, many projects remain behind schedule. For instance, Agni V still has to pass more tests to confirm its flight path, accuracy and overall competence before production can begin.

Needless to say, the defence bureaucracy along-with the External Affairs Ministry needs to fashion a long-term strategic view and involve experts from think-tanks and universities to make technological achievements coherent with India’s strategic goals as also the steps taken to achieve them.

The debate on India’s missile developments matching China’s is just a part of the larger game involving the current balance of power in Asia which has huge implications in the global strategic structure. With the US in relative decline China is being seen as the next probable super power. This is guess work. But, there is no doubt regarding Beijing’s increasing might both economically and militarily. This is a cause of worry for neighbouring countries like India which aspires to carve out its own place.

Undoubtedly, India and China are huge countries with the world’s largest populations and immense economic potential. But at the same time they share a troubled history which continues to poison current relations, namely, an unresolved border dispute which caused the 1962 war. Despite growing trade ties, characterized by a trade deficit against India, relations have not moved ahead and fears linger of another possible conflict over contentious issues. Both countries are competing for resources and alliances with other Asian countries.

Compounding matters, Washington might be wary of increasing Chinese might yet intensively engages Beijing in the economic field which makes New Delhi uncomfortable. India is adverse to the idea of a G2 with China and US as the two ultimate poles of power in international politics.

Furthermore, China’s relations with Pakistan, worries India and likewise New Delhi’s emerging strategic partnership with Washington, projected as a counter-weight to China irks Beijing. Hence, as power continues to shift from the Atlantic to the Pacific, from the West to the East, the complex relations between India and China will to a large extent determine the contours of international politics.

Thus, each technological achievement like the Agni V test needs to be backed by active diplomacy that strives most particularly for instituting a sustainable bilateral nuclear dialogue and operationalisation of communication links to prevent any flare-up thereby disturbing stability in the region. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

 

 

 

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