Round The World

New Delhi, 12 April 2012

Suu Kyi’s Landslide Victory

WHERE IS MYANMAR HEADING?

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

“One has to be in the system to change the system,” so goes a cliché. Indeed, this is exactly what Myanmar’s pro-democracy leader and modern day icon Aung San Suu Kyi has set out to do in her country.  That she would win the recent by-elections was predictable but the landslide victory her National League for Democracy (NLD) Party managed to get in this junta-ruled State has caught everyone’s attention, including the military leaders who occupy a sizeable chunk of Parliamentary seats as her NLD won seats even in the new Capital, Naypyitaw, the military-backed Union Solidarity Development Party’s (USDP) bastion.

Importantly, in a country deeply entrenched in military rule for years, one can be forgiven for cautious optimism. Has Suu Kyi performed beyond the military junta’s expectations, making them uneasy? By allowing her Party to contest the by-elections, the USDP knew that she would win seats thereby legitimising Myanmar’s move to the outside world. But, her clean sweep has emitted different signal, leading the military rulers to harbour mixed feelings about her movement which has acquired a life of its own.

If ‘Lady’ Suu Kyi’s popularity and her Party’s performance are any indication, one could hope for dramatic results in the upcoming 2015 general elections, which would be the real test for Myanmar’s path to democracy. Does the military want to share just a slice of the pie? Will they finally surrender Myanmar to the will of the people? Possibly see Suu Kyi as a probable future Head of State? Only time will tell.

Indeed, 2011 has witnessed monumental changes in the country wherein the ex-military leader Thein Sein is now the civilian head. He is largely seen as pragmatic and reform-minded, keen that Myanmar becomes part of the globalised economic grid, not a pariah State shunned by major world countries. But, Parliament and USDP is still habited by many hardliners who will not surrender their power and influence gathered over years of institutionalised oppression.

Questionably, would they be gracious enough to function under Suu Kyi some day? Given, they kept her under house arrest and political wilderness for a major part of her career?  According to sources, Aung Suu Kyi’s foremost priority in office would be to try and amend the law which entails Parliament seats be reserved for the military. Not an easy task, as she would be functioning in a Parliament of members who severely restricted her political freedom till now.

Pertinently, Western countries including US and EU are re-assessing their sanctions policy, reportedly ready to match step-for-step with Myanmar’s path to reform and democratisation. ASEAN leaders are urging the West to ease punitive sanctions in light of Myanmar’s changes and that Yangon is set to assume the rotating ASEAN Chairmanship in 2014. Clearly, years of military rule and international sanctions have scuttled growth prospects in this resources rich country. Also, by being pro-active in ASEAN and the international economy at large is one of the major determinants of decisions being made in Yangon?

As for India, being a neighbouring country it has walked a tightrope vis-à-vis ties with Myanmar. True, New Delhi has often been criticised for maintaining active contacts with the military regime. However, given India’s porous cross-border issues along the disturbed North-Eastern region with Myanmar and China’s encroachments to make the country its ‘satellite State”, New Delhi had to consider its security and geo-strategic concerns. 

This does not mean that India totally ignored the sacrifices Suu Kyi made for democracy in Myanmar. But, it could not afford to be seen influencing the course of events there, lest it have a disastrous impact in the North-East which is witnessing secessionist movements. Interestingly, New Delhi has chosen Suu Kyi for the first international Bhagwan Mahavir World Peace Award, driving home the point there is no love lost between her and India.

Besides, Suu Kyi is a political icon here, notwithstanding New Delhi’s pragmatic move towards doing business with Myanmar’s military rulers. Also an astute and seasoned leader that Suu Kyi is would understand India’s predicaments and not waste any chance towards cementing her ties with a democratic India. Recall, she studied at Delhi’s Convent of Jesus and Mary School and Lady Shri Ram College.

Moreover, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is likely to visit Myanmar soon, becoming the first Indian premier in 25 years to visit the South-east Asian country.  Certainly, the re-energisation of New Delhi’s Look East policy lends added impetus to a more democratic and open Myanmar as it serves as our gateway to South-east Asia.

Significantly, being a border country and with its long years of engagements with Beijing its economics is highly tilted in favour of China. Despite, President Sein suspending the $3.6 billion Chinese-financed Myitsone hydro-electric power project in response to strong public opposition. Many saw it as a defiant act against Beijing and a way to reach out to other partners such as India and potential ties with US. But, Myanmar’s officials refuted it arguing that the decision was based on domestic opposition and did not mean that other Chinese investments were at risk.

At the same time, regardless of Myanmar being heavily engaged with China it does not want to become over-reliant on Beijing. Instead, Yangon wants to open doors for other giants, as seen that it has managed to build relations with New Delhi and is now turning a new leaf with Washington thereby significantly increasing its zone of legitimacy and credibility.

Yet, there are just too many question marks over Myanmar’s drive towards democracy. Although Suu Kyi’s victory is a signal to the military hardliners that winds of change are blowing in the country, the faster the military junta acknowledges and accepts the people’s verdict the better it is for them and the Myanmar’s future.

Undoubtedly, Aung San Suu Kyi and reform-minded President Sein have mutual respect and share an understanding. However there are many hurdles ahead on the reform road. Asserted Suu Kyi, “I trust Then Sein and his genuine wishes for democratic reform”, but warned that she was unsure about how much backing he enjoyed from his Government. In sum, much depends on: Whether Yangon’s Government intends using Suu Kyi’s election just to win international economic concessions? Or does it want to usher in a new democratic Myanmar?  ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)