Round The World

New Delhi, 20 March 2012

Afghanistan End Game

US, NATO: STUCK IN LIMBO

By Monish Tourangbam,

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

Before America could get its hands off the Koran burning fiasco that led to a wave of violent anti-American protests, another ruckus has severely threatened the Afghan end game. Thanks to a deranged American soldier going on a killing spree, murdering 16 Afghan civilians including 9 children at the Belandai base in Kandahar on 11 March. Grim examples of the day-to-day tussles in the long-drawn war that shows no sign of a peaceful end.

Besides the civilians, the first casualty of this violent incident has been the “strategic partnership” that the Americans and Afghans are deliberating on, which aims to oversee the role of foreign forces in Afghanistan post the 2014 withdrawal. Worse, this episode could seriously jeopardize talks with the Taliban, as they would be more emboldened to accuse the US to extract more leverage.

For one, The Taliban has been demanding the trial of the accused soldier to be held on Afghan soil according to Islamic law. The issue will probably heat up in the days to come, as the Taliban will use it to tighten the screw on the Americans.

The Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who needs the Americans to sustain his hold on power, would face a serious predicament, forced to play to his domestic gallery and criticize the US plans in his beleaguered country. In the aftermath of the incident, he reportedly asked foreign forces to leave villages and return to larger military bases to avoid more civilian deaths. A not so practical demand as counter-insurgency operations inevitably involves operating in rural areas and closing that option would automatically mean a practical end to NATO’s mission in the country.

Moreover, as a part of the US-Afghanistan partnership deal being considered to oversee the post withdrawal scenario, Kabul wants a timeline to take over detention centers and that Washington and NATO agree to end night raids on Afghan homes as pre-conditions for signing the pact.

The crucial question is: How would this new episode impact the withdrawal dateline of 2014? Would it lead to a premature and hastened pullout? Or does the endgame continue as planned? Needless to say, no one would dare put their money on predicting the course of events in this volatile country.

Indeed, the clash of cultures due to a prolonged and protracted conflict in the region threatens to derail the prospects of safe exit. Especially against the backdrop that it is election season in the US. Already there is a battle for the Republican ticket as Barack Obama awaits his contender in the Presidential elections this November.

Critics of Obama’s Af-Pak strategy have come out guns blazing blaming the President for the mess created in this war that does not see the proverbial ‘light at the end of the tunnel.’ Former Senator and one of the major contenders for the Republican Presidential ticket Rick Santorum, assailed President Obama in a TV show saying, “If the game plan is we're leaving irrespective of whether we're going to succeed or not, then why are we still there? Let's either commit to winning, or let's get out,” he added.

Undeniably, as of now, the US President seems to be definitely on the defensive vis-à-vis the Afghan war, apologizing for many war-borne incidents that happened and continue to do so for no fault of his. But, this is the stuff wars are made of, and this is the stuff politics is made of. President Obama would probably, have been doing the same if he had been in the Opposition.

Finding faults comes easy to a lot of people, especially in the election season, but nobody seems to have any idea, as to what is the alternative. Significantly, no card seems to be working in the Afghan war especially since the resurgence of the Taliban on the battlefield and dependence on allies like Pakistan, battling its own demons, which does not make matters easy at all.

Civilian deaths, especially as a result of the drone attacks have inflamed opinions inside the country, and increased anti-Americanism to the benefit of the Taliban insurgents, who know that foreign forces are bleeding and continue to extract concessions out of incidents, like the recent killing spree and the Koran burning issue that show the international force on a poor light.

Besides, the Americans have no choice but to include the Taliban in the political reconciliation. But at what cost, and under what conditions? As of now, Washington seems to be in no condition to dictate terms; as the Taliban continues to gain ground and the counter insurgency strategy to wins hearts and minds seems to be failing on all fronts.

Moreover, every renegade behaviour even by a single Western soldier will put the coalition forces on the back-foot and give more ammunition to the Taliban to win the confidence of the Afghan civilians. Already the Afghan war has sucked both men and money over the last decade, and become a political liability not only for the US President but also for many other Western nations contributing to the international coalition force there.

Additionally, there is a sort of war fatigue among the countries fighting there, and support for the NATO-led international force in Afghanistan has been severely fledging. In fact, the Koran burning issue, the case of the ‘killing’ soldier and its aftermath might give more reason to the large number of Americans who feel that it is high time the US forces came back from the war.

According to a recent poll, the support for the war has been continuously dwindling among the American public wherein nearly 60 per cent now say the war was not worth the cost, while 54 per cent say that it's time to bring the troops home now, even if the Afghan National Army is unprepared to take over security from the US and NATO. 

Are these ominous signs of a premature withdrawal and a complete hands-off approach post the withdrawal? Pertinently, recall the French President Sarkozy had lately threatened to pull out the entire French force from Afghanistan after an Afghan soldier shot and killed four French soldiers.

Furthermore, with the pressure of economic recession on Western countries, coupled with the rising anti-war public opinion, support for the Afghan war is increasingly uncertain. And the recent killing spree by the American soldier mirrors the kind of complexities, and clashes that are products of a long drawn conflict with foreign forces stationed in a foreign land.

However, at the same time, a premature and a hasty pullout is not the antidote to the Afghan conflict. In the event of a hasty withdrawal of Western forces from Afghanistan, power-hungry vultures would once again roam the Afghan badlands with impunity and yet again drag the country into a civil war. That would obviously be detrimental to the interests of stability and security in the region. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)