Budget Special
New Delhi, 17 March 2012
Budget Proposals
UNWISE & ANTI-POOR
By Shivaji Sarkar
The Union Budget is a confusing text
of socialistic principles being implemented in a supposedly market-dominated
economy. It has hit out at consumerism-- the mainstay of the market and has
pulled out every sop to increase prices of each commodity. If this is the step
to contain inflation, it is bound to be counter-productive as excise duty and
service tax increase of two per cent would effectively lead to at least seven
per cent rise in inflation.
The proposals put almost Rs.1,00,000
crore additional burden on the people – Rs 45,000 crore through taxes and
another Rs 55,000-odd crore through indirect measures. Virtually everything
under the sky has been brought under the service tax ambit. No transaction
remains untaxed and the decision appears to continue with imposing a double tax
for the “follies” of the people trying to put a little savings in banks for
their old age. In short, it taxes even the social security benefits.
The budgetary measures would further
hit growth and expectation of it going beyond 6.9 per cent should remain a
pipedream. Instead of the tokenism shown in I-T exemption, it would have been
better to abolish I-T at least up to Rs 10 lakh, to balance with what the
Finance Minister says his “cruel steps”.
Clearly, the Budget has hit out at
the culture of savings, a crucial aspect that has fuelled India’s
development. No wonder savings rate is reaching a critical stage leading to a
liquidity crisis with the banking sector. Reducing interest rate on interest
rates of Employees Provident Fund (EPF) is yet another blow. In short, the
budget instead of being visionary – the need of the hour – lacks political
wisdom. It appears Pranab Mukherjee, known for his political wit, has succumbed
to a bureaucratic driven path.
This year's Budget could have been
an instrument of growth if he had addressed the key challenges facing the
Indian economy. But the Budget did not venture in that direction and continued
to reflect indecision and confusion on the economic front.
The nagging fear is that the country
would face high inflation. Till February 2010, it was at 20 per cent. The
pre-budget projections were that it would increase by 7 per cent. With the budgetary proposals, double digit
inflation is almost certain. It would further reduce purchasing power capacity
leading to low demands in industrial, manufacturing and all other activities,
including eating out. More restaurants may close down.
This goes against the FM’s stated
12th Plan objective of “focus on domestic demand driven growth trajectory”. Nor
his objective of high growth in private investment, seen tapering off during
the last three years due to high inflation, interest rates and other
uncertainties; is achievable.
The FM says he wants to address
bottlenecks in agriculture, energy and transport – coal, power, highways,
railways and civil aviation. His step in asking Coal India to sign fuel supply
agreements is inappropriate as coal reserves are reaching a critical stage. On
energy there is no perspective. With conventional energy sources such as coal
and gas dwindling, the thrust on alternative energy research remains absent. It
might put a brake on the 12th Plan. The private investment and partnership he
is looking for in many areas, including defence may be difficult to
materialise.
This apart, the FM has given many
concessions to the airline industry, including duty-free import of fuel and
spares. Beyond his budget he has expressed steps to bail out loss-making Air India. Now he
wants to limit FDI in aviation sector to 49 per cent. It is absurd. He puts
public money in a loss-making sector. He should allow 100 per cent FDI in
aviation and consider leasing out Air India to save public money and
punish the bureaucrats who had led it to bleed. It is futile to pump in money
in the loss-making airline while offering to sell the silver in Maharatna PSUs.
The loss is to the revenue earnings in both the cases and certainly not a wise
decision.
The free import of aviation fuel and
spares is a direct subsidy of over Rs 1 lakh crore a year to the richest while
the FM rues giving subsidy to the poor. Such subsidy is limited to Rs 190,000
crore, including supposed petroleum subsidies, which are never paid to the petroleum
companies. Actual subsidy to the poor, if at all, is limited to Rs 1 lakh crore
– a beautiful balancing of the richest and the poorest!
Fiscal deficit – borrowings - in
2011-12 reached 5.9 per cent and now it pegs at 5.1 per cent –likely to go beyond
6.2 per cent in reality. It is very high. Total government debt has reached
45.5 per cent of GDP, the FM says.
This should cause concern. Greece also
started its downhill journey a decade back with that level. The FM also does
not say a word about reducing expenses on government departments. It is
budgeted at Rs 9.69 lakh crore, 18.8 per cent increase, in a total budget of Rs
14.9 lakh crore – two-third of the total expenses.
Importantly, the Finance Minister
has disappointed the agricultural sector too. There is no follow-up on
Swaminathan Commission’s recommendations to rescue the farmer from distress.
Injustice has been done to the farming community on crop loan interest rates.
How can one expect the farmer who is in neck-deep debt to repay loans on time
to avail interest subvention? The steps are more cosmetic. Increase in
farm-loan availability to Rs 5.75 lakh crore is impractical. Even last year
they did not take 50 per cent of the Rs 4.75 lakh crore made available to them.
It is surprising that while the FM
has decided to increase customs duty on a number of items, including bicycles,
he has not taken any step to put an end to Chinese dumping of goods
manufactured by electronic, electrical and small and medium industries sector.
It is time he acts against China
as having lost western markets, China
is aggressively targeting India.
The focus on health is, however,
good. But more emphasis should have been laid on medical education. Health
targets without affordable medical education are difficult to achieve. In all,
the Budget needs many corrections. And one cannot help but keep the fingers
crossed that he would make the requisite amendments to make it more people and
growth oriented. ---INFA
(Copyright, India
News and Feature Alliance)
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