Round The World
New Delhi, 6 March 2012
Krishna’s Egypt Visit
KEEPING PACE WITH
ARAB SPRING
By Monish Tourangbam
Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)
The Foreign Minister SM Krishna’s
recent visit to Egypt to
attend the 6th India-Egypt Joint Commission meeting came at a
critical phase of Cairo’s
experiment with democracy. As Egypt
takes the first steps towards fashioning a post-Mubarak Government and builds
its political image anew, New Delhi
needs to find its own narrative of relationship with the new powers emerging in
this North African country.
Significantly, Krishna’s visit was
an exercise at examining the changes and continuities in Egypt which will help India find its feet in the shifting
sands of Arab politics in the region. But post the revolution which forced long-time
autocrat Hosni Mubarak to step down and inspired a wave of upheavals around the
Arab world, changes and reform have been slow and laced with hurdles. The
caretaker Egyptian military that was initially lauded for siding with the Arab
awakening has now been accused of scuttling reforms and preventing changes which
were promised.
It is too early to predict the
political fate of Egypt, but recent Parliamentary elections clearly show a
predictable dominance of Islamist forces whereby New Delhi needs to keep itself
abreast of the new developments in Cairo, specially vis-a-vis its impact on
larger West Asian and North African politics.
The Indian Foreign Minister met a host of Egyptian leaders,
the stand-out being the one-to-one with Mohamed Morsy, leader of the Muslim
Brotherhood’s political arm, Freedom and Justice Party, which emerged as the
largest force in the first post-Mubarak Egyptian Parliament. The meeting was an exercise to understand and
build ties with the new political force emerging as Egypt goes for Presidential
elections this May.
Importantly, the legitimacy which the Muslim Brotherhood has
gained would have larger political and strategic repercussions in the Arab
world. The dominance of Islamist forces in Egypt,
a predominantly Sunni Muslim country would add another sub-text to the larger
Sunni-Shia rivalry evident in the Arab world, which has been largely
indentified with the Saudi Arabia
–Iran
tussle.
Arguably, would the rise of Islamist forces in Cairo add more complexities to this rivalry, impacting the
developments in countries like Syria
and Bahrain?
One can only wait and watch. India’s
approach to these countries should be mindful of these developments, but not
determined by the Shia-Sunni divide.
Undoubtedly, New
Delhi’s relations with Arab countries, at this
juncture, should be based on mutual interests born out of secular, pragmatic grounds of policy-making
where countries come together via practical globalized
business-interconnections.
Indeed, Egypt
is India’s
gateway to the African Continent and has enjoyed a good working relationship. Recall, India
and Egypt
enjoyed an enviable relationship during the Nehru-Nasser era and were joint
exponents of the Non-Alignment policy during the heydays of the Cold War which brought
the two countries together. This nostalgia is often repeated in defining
relations between the two.
Interestingly, the dynamics of
international politics and power re-arrangements have not affected the
relations adversely. Since the 1980s, there have been four Prime Ministerial
visits to Egypt:
Rajiv Gandhi (1985); Narasimha Rao (1995); Gujral (1997); and Manmohan Singh
(2009). Dethroned Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak visited India in 1982,
1983 (to attend the NAM Summit) and in November 2008.
Also, India’s
economic growth in the last decade and increasing public and private sector
investments should be good reason for any Government in Cairo
to augment pragmatic ties with New
Delhi. In fact, this was exactly the tone and theme of
Krishna’s visit. Rather than trumpeting the
glorious past, his visit seemed to be more future-oriented and forward looking vis-à-vis the political set-up in Egypt.
Significantly, Egypt has been
an important trade partner and this trend fortunately has not been affected by
the upheaval therein. Interestingly, some Indian companies started new
production facilities there last year. Besides, as the political map in Egypt and the Arab world continues to be
redrawn, India’s
credentials as one of the largest and most resilient growing markets could
potentially serve as shock absorbers for any unforeseen changes in power
configurations.
The India-Egypt Bilateral Trade
Agreement, based on the Most Favoured Nation clause has been in operation since
March 1978 and the Bilateral Investment Protection Agreement entered into force
in November 2000. Total trade increased from US$ 1.9 b in 2006-07 to US$ 3.2 b
in 2010-11. India
has a total investment of approximately US$ 2.5 billion in about 50 companies/
projects.
Indian companies are providing
direct-indirect employment to 35,000 Egyptians and have launched a Pan African
e-Network Project, with an E-learning Centre in operation at Alexandria University
since July 2009. The Oberoi group owns two
hotels and runs cruises, Essar, Reliance, and Tata’s are also planning
investments there worth over $20 billion. Krishna’s also signed several agreements, including a MoU
on cooperation in the environment protection field, cultural exchange programme
for the next three years, a work plan for agricultural cooperation and another
MoU between Egyptian Organisation for Standardisation and Bureau of Indian
Standards. Krishna also unveiled Nobel laureate Rabindranath Tagore’s portrait
at Cairo’s famed
House of Poetry.
Pertinently, Krishna also met the Arab League Secretary General
Nabil El Araby with which differences persist
over how to handle the Syrian crisis. New Delhi’s
recent vote on the Syrian issue, favouring the Arab League resolution raised a
lot of eyebrows but since then India
has continuously reiterated it did not vote to oust the Assad regime but was
something to be decided by the Syrian people and not by pre-judged external
intervention.
However, India’s ties with Arab nations, more so the Gulf
countries is evident in the approximately 6 million Indian expatriates who send
large remittances, accounting for roughly 50 per cent of money transferred
from the Gulf; not to mention India’s energy dependence on these countries. As
such, despite failing to find a common ground on the Syrian issue, New Delhi and Cairo agreed
to step up economic ties, in preparation for the upcoming India Arab Investment
Projects Conclave in Abu Dhabi.
All in all, India’s
ties with Egypt and Arab countries at large needs to be structured keeping in
mind the vital stakes that New Delhi has in the stability of these nations. Its
ties should not be regime based but be built so as to withstand any sort of
power re-arrangement therein. New
Delhi needs to define its own narrative in its
relations with the Arab world, rather than being restricted to saying “yes/no”
to other’s engineered plans! -----INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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