Events & Issues

New Delhi, 21 February 2012

Diplomat Attack 

TIME DELHI SAT UP

By Col. (Dr.) P K Vasudeva (Retd)

The recent attack on an Israeli diplomat in the country’s capital, Delhi, makes it amply clear that terrorist cells are well-entrenched in India. Without local support no terrorist organisation can operate in any country, as the terrorists always carry out thorough planning & reconnaissance and a number of rehearsals with proper escape routes before executing a lethal blast. Hence, this incident is not only an intelligence failure but a major lapse on the part of the police force for its lack of strict vigilance.

Regrettably, in the past few years India has not been able to identify the perpetrators of bomb blasts, which have caused major damage to the image of the country beside loss of property and precious lives of innocent people. In spite of massive investments in investigation and counter-terrorism intelligence capabilities since 26/11 Mumbai blasts, the police force across the country have made little progress in identifying the perpetrators of the five major urban attacks which have taken place since then.

The attacks include the February 2010 bombing of the German Bakery in Pune; the April 2010 serial bombings at the Chinnaswamy stadium in Bangalore, the drive-by shooting at Delhi's iconic Jama Masjid in September 2010, the bombing at the Shitla Ghat in Varanasi in December 2010 and a powerful bomb blast at Delhi High Court on 7^th September 2011. 

The National Investigation Agency (NIA), set up with much fanfare in 2009 to assuage public anger over a similar series of failures leading up to 26/11, has been assigned these cases — but it is yet to come out with any result. Now the National Counter Terrorism Cell (NCTC), which has been notified by the Centre for implementation from 1st March, has been vehemently opposed by Chief Ministers of 12 States for the same reasons and for disturbing federal structure provided in the Constitution.

However, experts are firm that the poor dividends from these measures were predictable. “Even though both State and Central governments have been scrambling to set up all kinds of special counter-terrorism forces”, stated Dr Ajai Sahni, Director, Institute for Conflict Management, “there has been no real effort to improve intelligence-gathering and investigations capabilities from the bottom-up.”

The terrorists’ targeting an Israeli diplomat on Indian soil is highly disturbing and shameful. So far they have been targeting Indian citizens to disrupt peace and to put the security forces in a bind. But now the country seems to be chosen as a place for avenging animosities between nations.

It is quite clear that a highly well-trained group of terrorists have committed this attack. There is no doubt that an extremely sophisticated device was used to set off the explosion by one or more well-equipped terrorists who acted in precisely the same way that Israel’s famed external intelligence agency, the Mossad, has for years on its soil and elsewhere. For the strike to have taken place in the heart of the national capital not far from 7, Race Course Road, the residence of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is another prima facie evidence that Indian intelligence had no clue that terrorists could strike in the vicinity. 

Even before investigations could begin, allegations flew thick and fast that Iran was responsible for the strike and that the conspiracy was hatched in Teheran. It is after all Tel Aviv’s stated position that Teheran’s strategic goal is to wipe out Israel off the map.  Iran’s denial that it was responsible for the strike in New Delhi and the failed one in Tbilisi was aimed at discrediting Israel that was trying to ‘tarnish’ its friendly ties with India which has so far resisted pressure and defied the US and European sanctions against that country to import Iranian oil. 

While the security agencies must unravel who was behind the attack, the Centre needs to be careful that it does not find itself trapped in a diplomatic minefield fraught with untold dangers. What New Delhi must be cautious about is not to get dragged into a diplomatic imbroglio between two implacable enemies, at least one of whom is militarily prepared to launch a unilateral attack on the other to annihilate its nuclear weapons programme.

Indeed, India is in a ‘catch 22’ position. It has to pass through the monochromatic hawk eyes of the US when dealing with neighbouring countries Iran-Israel, and Afghanistan-Pakistan. The US has already received first-hand information of Indian compulsions when Indian foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai recently visited Washington.

On the one hand India needs cheap energy from every source possible that is Iran which is India’s second largest crude oil supplier with 42,55,000 barrels a day reaching a oil trade of $12 billion annually. On the other hand relations between India and Israel improved dramatically with sly talk of a ‘HinJew’ alliance. Israel saved India the blushes during the Kargil war, and is today New Delhi’s most significant arms supplier and technology partner, especially in tackling extremism and agriculture. Wish Israel had enough oil to supply to India.

After the exposure of Iran’s recent nuclear prowess recently the US expects India to toe its line of sanctions and not to support Tehran. India is against Iran going nuclear. It has also voted with the US against Iran at the IAEA, but it cannot severe ties because of Iranian oil and age long friendship at least for now. Iran has now halted its limited oil sales to France and Britain in retaliation for a phased European Union ban on Iranian oil that is yet to full effect. It will have serious repercussions on the global economy, including India.

New Delhi has explained to the US that if India ditches Iranian energy supplies and switch towards Sunny Saudi Arabia, the oil field will be open to the Chinese, who can easily defy sanctions, which undermines the US strategy objective to have India as a counterweight to Beijing. Moreover, India’s role in Afghanistan after the departure of the US forces has got to be through Iranian ports since Pakistan will not allow unhindered passage through its territory. Though India and Iran are on the same side of Afghanistan– anti Taliban– yet the US is understood to be in secret talks with Taliban. And also India-Iran-Pakistan oil pipeline is of great importance to the former even if it is frowned by the US.

India is on the razor’s edge and has to walk very cautiously to keep a balance with the neighbouring countries without losing the strategic importance of the US. But more importantly, our security agencies need to be doubly on alert. We can ill afford to have similar new-style threats, more so because the magnetic bomb or limpet mine hit appears relatively easy or cost-free to carry out but more dangerous than other blasts. While the Ministry of External Affairs will deal deftly with its international partners, the Union Home Ministry must too get its act together as setting up of intelligence agencies and counter terrorism cells is not proving to be good enough. ---INFA   

(Copyright, India News and  Feature Alliance)