Round The World

New Delhi, 1 February 2012

Afghan Endgame

PRELUDE TO FINAL ACT?

By Monish Tourangbam

Senior Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

US officials are reportedly talking to Taliban negotiators in the Persian Gulf country of Qatar, where the Taliban is slated to set up its office. Western forces, led by the US are looking for a face-saving exit from this war-torn country, that has sucked both men and money for over a decade, and become a political liability.   

The US has pulled out all cards but no strategy appears to work in this beleaguered country that has a reputation of defeating empires, within its mountainous region. President Obama came into office, as one of the most popular presidents, but the war in Afghanistan along with the economic problems at home has sucked the energy out of him, and Afghanistan---his “war of necessity” has become a headache, especially in an election year, when he is running for the second term.

Neither the Af-Pak strategy, nor the drone attacks (President Obama recently went public defending the precision and goal of the controversial drone attacks), has changed the fortunes of the Afghan war, and with a duplicitous ally like Pakistan, that seems to be playing both sides, the American dilemma in this region isn’t waning. As Americans officially prepare to engage the Taliban negotiators, the same force that they wanted to wipe off from Afghanistan, the question remains: ‘Does the US have a choice?’ As of now, the answer seems a ‘No’.

Despite optimistic projections and official claims, it is common knowledge that the Taliban cannot entirely be defeated militarily, and some form of reconciliation is inevitable with this force, if a semblance of stability is to be brought back to Afghanistan before the western forces start pulling out, and the international coalition fighting there is stretched beyond limit, experiencing an acute ‘war fatigue’.

Lately, French President Sarkozy decided to suspend all training operations for Afghan troops and threatened to pull its entire force from the country early after an Afghan soldier shot and killed four French soldiers. A French pullout, if it does come about, would be a morale booster for the Taliban fighters. Politicians are clearly affected by the public opinion at home, as the Afghan war has become one of the most unpopular wars ever, more so with the US and various European countries reeling under economic pressure.

This certainly applies to President Sarkozy too, with the French presidential elections later this year. The Wall Street Journal in a stinging criticism of Obama’s withdrawal policy commented, “…it would be unfair to lay too much blame on Mr. Sarkozy, who is only trying to get ahead of the coming stampede for the exits. That was bound to happen the moment President Obama announced a timetable for the surge and a date-certain for withdrawal, thereby giving the Taliban hope that they could bide their time while giving America's coalition partners no good reason to stay.”

Apparently, the latest US National Intelligence Estimate on Afghanistan also casts doubt on the confidence expressed by President Obama on the state of the Taliban's war effort and "takes a dim view of possible futures in Afghanistan.” The assessment warned that the Taliban has not given up on its aim of retaking full control of Afghanistan and concluded that the gains made by the troop surge ordered by President Obama two years ago may be unsustainable.

Currently, the prospect of the proposed talks between the Americans and the Taliban are quite uncertain, with the Afghan government not totally happy about the whole set-up, although bound to accept it in principle. The talks are not being called peace talks of as of now, but preliminary trust-building measures, including a possible prisoner transfer (from Guantanamo), according to former Taliban officials. Reportedly, there has also been discussion of removing some Taliban members from NATO's “kill or capture” lists, with the Taliban offering to free an American soldier they are holding.

Hence, the whole agenda of this trust-building exercise is quite unclear. The ground has been further muddied with the Karzai government jostling to open its own direct negotiations with the Taliban, but in Saudi Arabia. So, stakeholders in the Afghan war are on to location scouting at present, in the Gulf countries, with their own set of reasons. The succeeding course of events is anyone’s guess. President Karzai’s image has already taken a beating among the western nations,  who largely blame him for rising corruption in Afghanistan. On the other hand, the Taliban accused him for being a “puppet” of the western countries.

As such, President Karzai is cornered from both sides, and is concerned that he will be left out of the scheme. Hence, this recourse to set his own pole of power, as the endgame ensues. Commenting on Karzai’s decision to open talks in Saudi Arabia, Shamila N. Chaudhary, a senior fellow at the New American Foundation argued: “He thinks the Americans are going to hang him out to dry, and that a deal with the Taliban is going to lead to his ouster…His talking about the Saudi angle is just a reminder to everyone that he is still relevant to the process.”  

While Afghan officials are hopeful of Saudi assistance, senior Western and US officials doubt the Saudis would want to become involved in an open-ended peace talks that have no guarantee of succeeding. As the Afghan government and the US go about setting their own separate schedules and means of talking to the common adversary, it is ironical that the whole argument is based on creating conditions to ultimately fashion negotiations that is “Afghan to Afghan.” In the words of the State Department’s spokeswoman, Victoria Nuland, “Our goal is to get Afghans talking to Afghans to get a process of reconciliation that is among Afghans.”

And, where does Pakistan come into the picture? It is at the very core of the insurgency problem in the country, and no solutions can be arrived sans Pakistani hands, howsoever dirty they might be. Through its porous and lawless borders to Afghanistan, and through his long-held contacts with fundamental elements finding safe havens inside its soil, Pakistan has an undeniable ability to create instability and insecurity in this region. At present, neither Afghanistan, nor the US is at very good terms with this country, due to a host of reasons, and efforts are on to improve relations, before it snaps beyond a point.

According to senior Afghan security sources, they will be seeking access to top Taliban leaders like Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, a co-founder of the Taliban captured in Pakistan in 2010, and other members of the Quetta Shura. Though Pakistan has been accused of using militant groups as proxies to offset India’s influence and ensure its influence in Kabul, it has expectedly denied habouring any insurgent groups inside its soil.

In the final analysis, amidst ‘who’s in, who’s out’ in the Afghan endgame, India, as an important stakeholder in the region, needs to keep engaging two important players in the game, the US and the Karzai government, and emphasize upon the Americans, that it will be a major folly to leave an important player like President Karzai in the lurch. Will it succeed? ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)