Round The World

New Delhi, 17 January 2012

Besieged Pakistan

AT WAR WITH ITSELF

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

Pakistan seems to be getting it all wrong viz the important pillars of governance, posing both short and long term challenges to its security and stability. Even though Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani has managed to win the trust vote in the National Assembly, which passed a resolution on Parliament’s supremacy, the future of Pakistani polity continues to hang in balance. Quite simply, the odds against Pakistan are at an all time high. It has President Asif Ali Zardari whose honesty has continually been questioned and stands accused of high-level corruption. Additionally, Gilani too has been slapped with a contempt of court notice for not re-opening corruption cases against Zardari.  

As the judiciary and the elected government battles it out, it is worth remembering that Chief Justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhary, a few years earlier was pitted against the then President Pervez Musharraf who had suspended him. Ironically, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), regardless of the reasons, supported Chaudhary and it was Prime Minister Gilani who had reinstated him. Such is the nature of politics that the same forces are now at loggerheads with each other.

As the Chief Justice demands Gilani to write to the Swiss authorities to open corruption charges against President Zardari, Pakistani politics is trapped in an awkward situation, wherein the Supreme Court, circumstantially, puts the two most important authorities in Pakistan up against each other. At the center of this unfolding drama, is the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), a graft amnesty issued by Musharraf in 2007, which was declared unconstitutional by the Supreme Court in 2009.

Add to this, the larger political game unfolding in Pakistan, where an Opposition most starkly seen in the rise of cricketer-turned politician Imran Khan, intends to dissect the questionable record and efficiency of the present PPP government. Khan, after being in the sidelines of Pakistani politics for many years, has emerged as a major player, giving a new thrust to the power tussle. However, reflecting on the political alignments analysts and commentators in Pakistan, appear to have differing opinions.

On the one hand, some question the honesty and sincerity of both Gilani and Zardari, the legitimacy of the present government to deliver, and point out the sanctity of the Supreme Court. While on the other, some emphasize the democratic deficit in Pakistan, and given its challenges argue that the present Government be allowed to complete its tenure until the next elections for the sake of democracy.

Ringside analysts in other countries are not privy to many angles of this internal fiasco, but Pakistan, unmistakably, is at a critical juncture, as a civilian Prime Minister musters the courage for a faceoff with the powerful military. The question being asked is:  what has given Gilani such aggression against the Pakistani army? For one, since Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden was found and killed inside Pakistan, the Pakistani military and the intelligence has been highly discredited by both the international community and the people of Pakistan.  

Moreover, the Pakistani Taliban has shown that it can attack some of the most well guarded official locations in the country with impunity, creating a crisis of confidence for the army. In addition, the escalating strain in US-Pakistani ties has only made matters worse for the army. The US Congress has passed a bill that proposes to freeze some $ 700 million military aid to Pakistan until some strict conditions are met.

Hence, the Pakistani army is not in the best of positions to fashion a coup. Further, a democratic wave has been flowing around the world, starting with the Arab Spring in the Middle East, lending the right atmosphere against the army.

The centre of the present conflict between the civilian government and the military is all due to an interview to the Chinese media, wherein Gilani had criticized the Pakistani Army General Ashfaq Kayani and the Director General of the ISI, Ahmed Shuja Pasha, for filing court papers in the ‘Memogate scandal’ case. Gilani had said that the filings were “unconstitutional”, to which the military high command responded with a press release stating: “There can be no allegation more serious than what the honourable Prime Minister has leveled…This has very serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the country.”

The government then, probably in a show of strength, sacked the Defence Secretary Lt Gen (retired) Khalid Naeem Lodhi, considered a confidant of Kayani and had its ambassador to US, Hussain Huqqani’s quit the post. Remember the Memogate scandal arose from a claim made by a well-connected Pakistani-American businessman Mansoor Ijaz that he had served as the conduit for a memo authorized from the highest authority in Pakistan (President Asif Ali Zardari) through the then Pakistan’s ambassador to the US, Haqqani.  

The memo was purportedly written by Haqqani, on behalf of President Zardari, and the American receiver was the then Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen. The memo reportedly sets out Zardari’s plea for US backing against any attempted coup by his country’s military in the wake of Osama being killed by US forces at Abottabad May last year.

Clearly, the ‘memogate’ unearths the discord between civilian and military institutions that baffles Pakistanis as well as external actors. However, it will be some time before more light is shed on the power game as Mansoor Ijaz has sought time till January 25 to come to Pakistan to testify before the Supreme Court-appointed panel.  

Importantly, the entire political tussle in Pakistan seems to be played under the banner of ‘democracy vs dictatorship’. However, it is quite discernible that the realities are murkier. The absence of any real alternative to the present forces in Pakistan and the multi-pronged crisis that the country is undergoing further complicates the hope of any meaningful stability and effective political system in the country. Essentially, Pakistan is at war with itself. Major institutions of the country are out to prove their points and make more space for themselves in the maneuver for power.

Political personalities and people at the top echelons of State machinery are jostling with each other for personal stakes. So, are we witnessing winds of change in Pakistan? Will democracy find its way in a beleaguered nation? Or will personality-based rivalries, internal political differences, and lack of proper institutionalization mar any chances of the Pakistani people finding its true voice. The unfolding events in Pakistan and the looming uncertainty over its political trajectory are largely internal in nature and it is for the Pakistanis to deal with. But, India needs to prepare for both goodwill and malice, no matter what destiny holds in store for Pakistan.--INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)