Round The World

New Delhi, 3 January 2011

India-Japan Ties

HEDGING AGGRESSIVE CHINA?  

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

The two Asian powers, India and Japan appear to be striking the right cord, much to the chagrin of China. In fact, over a short period, the two Asian powers have successfully infused growing confidence, across a host of issues, including the crucial nuclear negotiations. And, this increasing promise and potential of the relationship, assumes greater importance, as neighbouring China becomes more aggressive.

In point is the recent visit of Japanese Premier Yoshihiko Noda to India for the annual Prime Ministerial Summit, on the heels of the India-Japan Strategic Dialogue in Tokyo.  Expectedly, the changing tone of India-Japan ties has caused unease among the Chinese strategic circle, sensing a hedging strategy in the new developments, including the India-US-Japan trilateral dialogue in Washington. Japan’s decision to lift its decades-old ban on arms exports has apparently caused a stir within the Chinese strategic circle. Add to this, the increasing cooperation envisioned in India-Japan defence ties, and one has a recipe for an instant Chinese reaction.

Liu Jiangyong, an expert on Japan studies at Tsinghua University, stated: “From now on, Japan can export weapons to its neighbours and allies such as India, the Philippines and Australia. At first, these may be for maritime security. But offensive weapons may eventually enter the picture, because that’s the only way to fuel its indigenous defence industry.” Likewise, Lu Yaodong, Director, Department of Japanese Diplomacy, Institute of Japanese Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has noted that the India-Japan summit is a continuance of Japan's "Arc of Freedom and Prosperity" strategy, which has been widely interpreted as an effort to contain China.

India’s foray into Southeast Asia and its increasing strategic partnership with other Asian powers such as Japan is considered as a means to counteract and contain Beijing. Of late, one has seen a China that aggressively protested India-Vietnam joint ventures in the South China Sea region, considering it an intrusion in its own backyard. Beijing’s increasing military modernization and its Navy’s deliberate march towards becoming a blue-water navy, have become a major cause of concern for the US, India and many South-east Asian nations.

In this context, the recent India-US-Japan trilateral dialogue, though officially projected as an independent joint consultation and deliberation forum, with no intention to target China, would for obvious reasons, convey a different message to Beijing. Managing China’s rise does not amount to preparing for another hot war, which is hardly imaginable in this globalized world, where economic ties often go hand in hand with rivalries at the strategic level.

But, the presence of economic linkages may not translate into strategic convergences, and hence it is imperative to take a long-term view and prepare for the worst. With concerns of a rising China that increasingly sees Asia as its exclusive zone of sphere, the US as well as Japan would more than ever realize the importance of India as a power balancer in Asia. The Trilateral framework should serve as leverage for Indian policymakers and be a sober reminder to Beijing that its strategic moves are being watched quite intensely.

During PM Noda’s visit, New Delhi and Tokyo signed a dollar swap agreement of $15 billion. The currency swap would take place between the Reserve Bank of India and its counterpart the Bank of Japan. The two central banks would give each other dollars to stabilise their currencies, in case of need. Manifold increases in economic ties were projected, including a Ministerial Level Economic Dialogue and an India-Japan Ministerial Business-Government Policy Dialogue, both likely to be held this year, and the commencement of negotiations on a bilateral agreement on Social Security, that will contribute to the promotion of economic activities by private sectors.

The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) implemented since August 2011 should help push trade potential to a new level. It covers over 90% of the trade, a vast gamut of services, rules of origin, investment, intellectual property rights, customs and other trade related issues. The Japanese government has also consistently supported India’s development efforts by means of its Official Development Assistance (ODA), highly appreciated by the latter in the face of the recent earthquake and tsunami. Besides cooperation in the Delhi metro rail network, Japan has also proposed help in bringing high-speed bullet trains to India. Even the presumably stalled nuclear energy negotiations post Fukushima disaster has gained new steam and confidence from the Japanese side.

In fact Noda exuded confidence on the prospects of the nuclear deal. Speaking at the Indian Council for World Affairs, he stated: "At the working level, discussions on the civil nuclear deal have proceeded in right direction. I welcome this progress." India has indeed come a long way. Post the Pokhran nuclear tests in 1998, it was at the receiving end. But, over the years India’s clean non-proliferation record and its voluntary unilateral moratorium on further testing has won many nations over to its side. Noda also reportedly praised India's moratorium on tests, and hoped it would continue, thus affirming the essence of India’s stated and practiced policy.

Analyst Brahma Chellaney has argued that, “…Asia's booming economies are bound by sea, and maritime democracies like Japan and India must work together to help build a stable, liberal, rules-based order in Asia.” The two in their dialogues have given considerable importance to maritime security, anti-piracy measures, freedom of navigation and maintaining the security of Sea Lanes of Communication to facilitate unhindered trade by sea routes. And have welcomed the bilateral exercise between the Indian Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force to be held this year.

Further commenting on the need for interoperability between their naval forces and for the countries to co-develop defence systems, Chellaney stated: “…Economic ties that lack the support of strategic partnerships tend to be less stable and even volatile, as is apparent from Japan's and India's economic relationships with China.”

Beijing, this year in further show of its aggressiveness had cancelled the India-China border talks over the presence of the Dalai Lama at a global Buddhist convention. India suffered the consequences of ignoring Chinese aggressive intentions in 1962, and half a century later, we need to prepare internally as well with other concerned countries to offset any such designs in future. Diplomatic assertiveness lately is welcome but confronting the Chinese challenge requires a more nuanced understanding of the threats. A diverse debate and efforts are imperative to structure a long-term plan to manage a rising and aggressive China.  

Japan, of late has been experiencing leadership and economic challenges at home and is dealing with the aftermath of a disastrous natural calamity. However, India-Japan ties continue to hit the right notes and shall open new vistas of mutual interdependence. Undoubtedly, Japan is one of India’s most promising partners in East Asia and the continuing convergence between the two would surely pay dividends for a stable Asia.--INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)