Round The World

New Delhi, 28 December 2011

World 2011

INDIA’S GUARDED STEPS

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

2011 was a year of political and economic uncertainties around the world, be it the popular upheaval that continues to rattle the Arab world, ray of optimism with Myanmar opening up, nagging uncertainty over an Afghan settlement, or Osama’s death and its implications for the war on terror. Recently, the death of Kim Jong II in North Korea, has ignited strategic minds globally, as to how the country, under young Kim Jong Un will unfold, sans its overwhelming dictator.

Moreover, economic problems continue to rock the Eurozone as well as the US, impacting most nations, directly or indirectly. India’s response to these changes, along with the all-too familiar security issues, viz the intractable Indo-Pakistan disputes and New Delhi’s management of a rising China, is worth a review,   

The world has closely watched long time dictators falling in the Arab World, starting from Tunisia’s Ben Ali, then Egypt’s Mubarak. The Libyan strongman Gaddafi fell to the resistance forces, the latter supported by heavy NATO airpower, making way for the National Transitional Council. In Syria, President Assad’s forces have come down heavily on the resistance movement, leading to widespread ire and condemnation in the world community.

There has been international consensus on condemning the use of violence but not on the means adopted to force regimes to liberalize and democratize. Not only has India been seen objecting to any external military intervention, it has been criticized by many for not taking hard decisions. True, it cannot be a benchwarmer given its great power aspiration and playing an important role at the UN Security Council.

However, India has to move cautiously to preserve its interests in this region, as it is a major importer of energy and has a sizeable Indian working population there which sends remittances back home. The fall of dictators is always welcome, but what comes after is critical. The lack of proper institutionalization often hinders the process of democratization and one sees the uncertainties in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya. India needs to find its bearings in the new changing Arab world, use its democratic credentials and offer assistance towards reconstruction in Libya, and in institution and capacity building, in agreement with concerned countries.

Closer home, Pakistan’s obsession with India as its arch enemy, particularly amongst its military shows no signs of ebbing. However, even as the 26/11 trial continues to cast its shadow, some significant diplomatic steps have been taken. There have been many rounds of talks, including “cricket diplomacy”, high profile visit of Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar and the Singh-Gilani meet at the sidelines of SAARC summit.  

Importantly, efforts for trade normalization, taking forward the CBMs, both conventional and nuclear, and fast forwarding the 26/11 trial has evidently been the thrust. In the recently-concluded CBM talks in Islamabad, it was agreed that a Pakistani judicial commission will visit India to interview key officials linked to the Mumbai terror attacks.  

However, one needs to acknowledge that no amount of CBMs can be path-breaking unless sections of the Pakistani establishment stop playing double games in the fight against terrorism. This duplicity has also negatively impacted efforts to stabilize war-torn Afghanistan. Just as Islamabad refuses to fight groups that attack India, it is seen selectively fighting the war on terror, targeting only those groups that are a threat to its  State, and tacitly having an understanding with groups that it thinks it could use as a strategic asset in Afghanistan in the light of western forces preparing to withdraw.

India needs to be on guard, particularly with both Pakistan and the Taliban boycotting the recent Bonn meet on Afghanistan. It should be prepared for the worst case scenario and increase its counter-terrorism cooperation with the US. More so as Pakistan is currently undergoing a crisis of confidence within, along with a fall in legitimacy internationally; especially since Bin Laden was killed on its home ground. Not only is the civil-military imbalance sapping the growth of democracy in Pakistan, but the Pakistani Taliban is targeting official installations with impunity, evoking a fear of the nuclear arsenal falling into the hands of the fundamentalists. The fragile situation going further downhill is neither in India’s nor in Pakistan’s interests.

Insofar as India’s other neighbour is concerned, Beijing has of late projected the South China Sea region as its backyard, where it would not tolerate other countries’ activities. The same China does not give any ear to Indian objections regarding its investments and activities in the disputed Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). Its relentless drive for power and influence in the world is being cleverly disguised as the “Peaceful Rise of China”.

However, a major problem is that countries especially in its geographical proximity, do not perceive the developments in the same manner. As a response to China’s aggressive assertion, many South-east Asian nations want a continuance of US role in the region. Now, given India’s increasing convergence with these nations and the US, Washington-New Delhi’s combined attention should be directed towards assisting them to safeguard against any future Chinese belligerence.

This apart, in the neighbourhood some substantive changes have been taking place in Myanmar. New Delhi, which has often been accused of engaging the military regime and ignoring democratic forces led by Aung San Suu Kyi, needs to be on alert. Despite the inroads made by China in Myanmar through investments, New Delhi still carries weight. It should take advantage of knowing both the military rulers and Suu yi more so as it has huge stakes in the democratization of Myanmar and enhancing security at its porous eastern borders. Luckily for India, Yangon itself intends to increase its zone of legitimacy by engaging with it and the US.

As the year ends, many of the challenges that India faced will, by all accounts, carry on to the New Year. New Delhi will continue to engage its neighbours, but differences over various issues will persist in its relations with Bangladesh, Nepal or Sri Lanka—be it water sharing, border security, or democratization and conflict resolution.

Additionally, the global financial woes affecting the developed western countries will continue to have an indirect impact on the Indian economy. Hence, India’s foreign policy challenges in the New Year will more or less comprise the same menu. But there can be no certainty. Who could have predicted the winds of change that swept the Arab world? Hence, India needs to be vigilant, prepared and above all practice a pro-active foreign policy. – INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)