Round The World

New Delhi, 7 December 2011

Hillary’s Myanmar Visit

CHANGING STRATEGIC EQUATIONS

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Myanmar is indeed a historic moment in the annals of US foreign policy. However, the next level of progression is anybody’s guess. The last time, a US Secretary of State had made an official trip to Myanmar, formerly Burma was over half a century ago (Secretary of State John Foster Dulles had visited the country, then under British rule, in 1955). While the big event of Clinton’s visit can be largely seen as a result of the new reforms ushered in Myanmar, and is being largely welcomed, there have been dissenting voices in the US, who perceive it as coming a little too fast.

“Sending the Secretary of State is a pretty big deal,” stated David J. Kramer, President of Freedom House, which ranks Myanmar among those nations it annually designates as “not free.” “I do worry that we are moving a little too quickly,” he commented. Apparently, the decision to send Clinton was debated among the White House, the State Department and members of Congress, following a series of exploratory visits to Myanmar by the administration’s special envoy, Derek Mitchell, who recently has been confirmed in the position.

The high point of the visit was of course Secretary Clinton’s meeting with the Myanmar’s pro-democracy opposition leader and Nobel peace laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. They are often looked as two of the most influential women in the world, in their own capacities. And just the sight of them shaking hands, especially, in Myanmar, which has kept Suu Kyi under house arrest for the better part of her public career (since the military government refused to acknowledge the results of an election in 1990 won by the main opposition party, led by her) was worth capturing.

But, then symbolism alone can be misleading and it is wise to watch these events with guarded optimism. Giving political freedom to Suu Kyi and her subsequent decision to contest elections has been a major morale-booster for many in Myanmar and around the world. She has shown faith in the changes made by the country’s leader U Thein Sein and welcomed the new beginning with the United States. In a significant development, the Myanmar government has for the first time also allowed peaceful protests.

In a video webcast to the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, Suu Kyi reportedly said she backed the U.S. involvement in her country and confirmed that she will take part in as-yet- unscheduled parliamentary elections. Unprecedented changes for an erstwhile military junta have been duly welcomed, encouraged and a new chapter of relationship is being etched. At the same time, however, the message that has been conveyed is that this is just the beginning of a new journey, and that miles are left to be covered.

More progress is required, the US has said, including the unconditional release of all political prisoners, a cease-fire with ethnic minorities, respect for rule of law and human rights. In return, America would no longer veto aid packages from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. Clinton also made it known that a new ambassador could be posted to Myanmar, pending further reconciliation steps by the country’s rulers. She also extended an invitation to Myanmar to join the Lower Mekong Initiative, an American-sponsored regional association of Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam devoted to water issues. During her talks, Secretary Clinton also called on Myanmar to “sever illicit ties to North Korea,” a relationship that officials say has included cooperation on ballistic missiles and possibly nuclear technology.

The big question is: “Why this change of heart from Washington now?” While one can be never be sure about why a certain policy is taken at the highest level, there are many factors, some visible to analysts and others out of purview. But, then some logical reasons could be arrived at, as of now. One, as Myanmar’s leadership continues to open up significantly and seems to be finally allowing Suu Kyi her political freedom, paving a nascent path to democratization, Washington needed to sit up and acknowledge.  

Since, Myanmar had been isolated and continuously sanctioned primarily because of political repression and lack of freedom, the winds of change had to be encouraged, albeit with conditions and cautious optimism, which is exactly the mood. Moreover, if US-Myanmar’s new found relationship does manage to bring in new positive political and economic dividends for Myanmar, the democratic opposition in the country would have a score card to show that democracy and engagement does pay.

Then there are strategic factors, governing the call. Just as the Indian government seeks to reinvigorate its ‘Look East policy’, the Obama administration has already shown enough signs of a policy reorientation to more seriously focus on the Asia-Pacific region. President Obama announced the first significant shift in American relations with Myanmar in decades during his trip to Asia last month, citing “flickers of progress” that merited reaching out.  In both the policy outlooks, the unmistakable impact of China’s rise and its economic footprints in the region is quite discernible, even though official commentary might present more benign perceptions.

Being a bordering country and long years of engagements between Beijing and the erstwhile military junta, the economics in Myanmar, at present, is highly tilted in favour of China. Apparently, China’s interests in Myanmar include oil and natural gas pipelines that are under construction; access to the Indian Ocean and the stability of border regions, where ethnic clashes have broken out between the Myanmar’s military and guerrilla groups. Trade between the two countries reached $5.3 billion last year, and China is the biggest foreign investor in Myanmar, with $15.8 billion worth investments.  

Interestingly, ahead of Clinton’s visit, China’s Vice President Xi Jinping hosted Min Aung Hlaing, head of the Myanmar Armed Forces, in Beijing and discussed boosting military cooperation. “Beijing understands Myanmar's aspiration to diversify its international engagement and improve relations with the US. However, Beijing doesn't wish to see those goals achieved at the expense of China,” stated Sun Yun, an expert on China's foreign relations at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

President Sein earlier suspended the $3.6 billion Chinese-financed Myitsone hydro-electric power project in response to strong public opposition. Many saw it as a defiant act against Beijing, a way to reach out to other partners such as India and potential ties with the US. But, Myanmar’s officials refute it arguing that the decision was based on domestic opposition and doesn’t mean other Chinese investments are at risk.  Indeed, Myanmar’s geographical proximity to the two Asian powers, India and China, inevitably makes it a major part of their strategic calculations and now with, America’s new overture towards it, the Asian power game might see a new chapter added.

Apparently, this country despite engaging heavily with China does not want to become over reliant on Beijing, and wants to open up to other giants, as seen in the ties that it has managed to build with a democratic India and now turning a new leaf with the US; thus significantly increasing its zone of legitimacy and credibility. If the American gamble pays off and Myanmar goes further down the road to reform and effective democractization, leading to increased US-Myanmar ties, Hillary’s visit would be etched in history. And, this diplomatic move, in posterity could be remembered as one of the major foreign policy successes of the Obama Presidency. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)