Round The World

New Delhi, 29 November 2011

Fatal NATO Strike

BIG JOLT TO US-PAK TIES

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

Pakistan-US ties hit another new low when a NATO helicopter attack killed 24 Pakistani soldiers and injured 13 at a border post in Mohmand region near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border on 26 November 26.The issue was further complicated by differing viewpoints by both sides. Undeniably, the devil lies in the details, which seem murky with a highly incensed Islamabad calling the attack totally unprovoked and uncalled for, as there were no reports of any terrorist activity in the area.

On the other hand, the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) offered condolences and ordered an investigation into the matter. Speaking to the BBC from Kabul, ISAF’s Brigadier General Jacobson said the incident took place when close air support was sent on ground forces request, a combined group drawn from coalition forces and Afghan troops, to Afghanistan’s Eastern Kunar area along the border with Pakistan.

Importantly, this incident will further fuel anti-Americanism on Pakistani streets and might serve as a rallying point for its military and the civilian Government post the Mansoor Ijaz Memogate scandal. The current discord within Pakistan might also lead to more than expected stringent measures towards NATO specially Americans, who are seriously giving competition to India for the spot of the No 1 villain in Pakistan.

This is only the latest in a series of incidents that have pulled US-Pakistan relations downhill. Osama bin Laden being found and killed inside Pakistan was a watershed moment in US-Pakistan ties and will remain so. Such was the magnitude of the issue that the civilian Government reportedly feared a military coup, thus leading to what is now being called the ‘Memogate scandal’.

Since then, Pakistanis have routinely accused the Washington of infringing Pakistan’s sovereignty and the Americans have counter-attacked Pakistan of not doing enough to fight terrorism on its soil. There have been serious diplomatic diatribes at the Governments’ highest levels. Recall, former Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen, just before his retirement pointed to links between the dreaded Haqqani network and the powerful but much-maligned Pakistani intelligence ISI.

It is clear that Islamabad has always played a selective game in targeting terrorists, and this policy has backfired for fomenting insecurity among the international forces in Af-Pak, both for India and Pakistan. The Americans need Pakistan to help bring various insurgent groups to the negotiating table in order to engineer a political settlement in Afghanistan, but Islamabad and the military in particular have half-hearted commitment wanting to reserve its own strategic hold in Afghanistan after Western forces’ withdrawal.

Regarding the border incident, investigations will come out with greater details. As of now, both the Pakistani military and the Government would vociferously protest against the Americans, largely for domestic consumption. Vehement anti-US dissent have been reported on the streets, including a boycott of courts by lawyers with striking lawyers chanting "Go America, go" in Karachi and Lahore.

According to sources, the army denounced media reports that the NATO airstrike was an attack from Pakistan. “This is not true, they are making up excuses,” retorted a Pakistan's Armed Forces spokesman, “By the way, what are their losses, their casualties?”  The military also charged the NATO airstrikes lasted almost two hours and continued even after commanders at the bases pleaded with coalition forces to stop.

However, an ISAF spokesman preferred not to speculate and stated, “We are going to let the investigation run its course. That's the purpose of the investigation, to get all the facts, and it has got the highest priority of the ISAF commander right now. We want to make sure we are clear on what went on in the incident,” he added.

Pertinently, Islamabad has announced that it will review all military and diplomatic ties along-with intelligence sharing, and has demanded the vacation of Baluchistan’s Shamsi air base where some CIA drones used against militants in the tribal areas of Pakistan are reportedly based. It has also shut down supply routes through Pakistan that account for almost half of the provisions shipped overland to U.S. allied troops fighting in Afghanistan.

But, this is not a singular case.  Last September Islamabad suspended supplies for days when shelling by NATO helicopters killed two Pakistani border guards in the Kurram tribal region. Supplies were resumed only after US officials apologized for the attack. NATO has reportedly pushed to expand a northern route into Afghanistan through Russia and the Central Asian countries, which reduces the impact of a blockade through Pakistan.

Needless to say Islamabad is aware that Western forces could resort to other alternative means, even if they are more expensive and arduous and hence, suspending supply routes would not pay it many dividends.

Will US-Pakistan ties snap beyond repair?  Prime Minister Gilani made plain it would not be “business as usual”. But, Pakistan is highly dependent on American aid, and its military will be toothless without American assistance. China is seen as an all-weather friend, that Pakistan turns to whenever it feels betrayed by the Americans. Beijing as usual has offered support to Islamabad in the present case as well, but Chinese rising power has its own limitations and would not go out of the way to tie itself into commitments that might prove detrimental to its own interests.

In fact, the pressure build up in the aftermath of the NATO strikes could be used by the military to squeeze out compromises and concessions from Washington as it readies to withdraw from the Af-Pak region by 2014. Ironically, the border attack took place only days after Military Chief Gen Kayani met the Commander of Coalition Forces in Afghanistan Gen. Allen to discuss “measures concerning coordination, communication and procedures” between the Pakistan Army, NATO-led ISAF and the Afghan Army, “aimed at enhancing border control on both sides” in Rawalpindi

Besides, President Obama would be clearly mindful of the impact that the Afghan war would have on his run for the Presidential elections in 2012. As the war has been a political migraine for his Presidency, specially after his Administration decided to withdraw by 2014 and hand over responsibilities to the Afghan forces. Obama would certainly want to show some successes on the ground to his voters and not continued complications in US-Pakistan ties.

Clearly, the US because of geo-political reasons has invested heavily on the Pakistani military thus leading to a dysfunctional institution depleting any chances of Pakistan blossoming into an effective democracy. America is the world’s oldest democracy but years of dining with Washington have not produced any effective dividends towards democratization in Pakistan.

This time also, Washington’s need for Islamabad’s assistance in Afghanistan and Islamabad’s need for US aid will probably force them to make last minute compromises and continue the highly frayed relationship. But many fissures have been opened in the past months that will unravel further strain in this highly transactional relationship. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)