Round The World

New Delhi, 22 November 2011

‘Memogate’ Scandal

GROWING DISCORD IN PAK

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

As India covers new diplomatic grounds and gets busy re-invigorating its ‘Look East’ Policy, Pakistan finds itself yet again embroiled in what is being called the ‘memogate’ scandal. New Delhi has made clear its stand to continue commercial activities in the South China Sea and a non-proliferation hawk like Australia has given indications that it might eventually sell uranium to India. Indeed, quite a time for Indian diplomacy. But, the story is quite different in our neighboring country.

Lately, developments in India-Pakistan relationship have evoked much enthusiasm among observers. However, such optimism on both sides cannot overshadow the internal mess that Islamabad is struggling with. The skewed civil-military relationship has been a major concern for Indian analysts and policymakers and the current memogate scandal rocking Pakistan’s polity is a mirror to this highly distorted relationship.

The scandal arose from a claim made by a well-connected Pakistani-American businessman Mansoor Ijaz that he had served as the conduit for a memo authorized from the then highest authority in Pakistan (President Asif Ali Zardari) through Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States, Hussain Haqqani (who has since been forced to resign on Tuesday last).  The memo was purportedly written by Haqqani, on behalf of President Zardari, and the American receiver was the then Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen.

The memo reportedly sets out Zardari’s plea for US backing against any attempted coup by his country’s military in the wake of Osama being killed by US forces at Abottabad May this year. The controversy surfaced in October through an article written by Ijaz in the Financial Times.  Commenting on the origin of the memo, he had written: “The embarrassment of Bin Laden being found on Pakistani soil had humiliated Mr. Zardari’s weak civilian government to such an extent that the President feared a military takeover was imminent. He needed an American fist on his army chief’s desk to end any misguided notions of a coup--and fast.”  

Perhaps answering the question as to why a highly placed and influential diplomat like Haqqani had to use him, Ijaz while speaking to Indian news channel NDTV said that the Pakistan ambassador reached out to him saying he was a “plausibly deniable channel” for them. Earlier, the issue did not merit much of a serious debate as its credibility was in question, but recently with Admiral Mullen confirming its existence, the news has picked up steam, raising serious questions over the fate of the Zardari government in the coming days.

Senior Indian officials keeping track of the developments commented that a military takeover at the moment was highly unlikely. At the same time, they said that the memogate scandal was yet another serious blow to the Zardari regime, which is confronted with the ‘steady' gains on ground by Imran Khan, the cricketer-turned-politician, and fissures within the Pakistan Muslim League led by the former Prime Minister, Nawaz Shariff. Recall that Imran Khan had very recently commented that the ISI was calling the shots in Pakistan, adding that the Islamabad government lacked the moral courage thus “giving the space to ISI to assert its powers.”

Notwithstanding whosoever comes to power in Islamabad in future, the real question is: will this episode change the existing civil-military imbalance in Pakistan? The military is undoubtedly a major kingmaker in Pakistani politics, and a sort of symbiotic relationship between the civilian and military establishments, especially in view of its relationship with the US has blunted any chances of scuttling the military’s influence in Pakistan.

The US has astutely taken its hand off this mess with Mullen commenting that he did not consider the memo credible. The fact that the Obama administration did not act on the alleged request from President Zardari absolves it from any serious wrongdoing. “I understand this is a big story in Pakistan. It's partly a domestic story. We all treat it as such. We remain in contact with Ambassador Haqqani,” State Department spokesman Mark Toner stated.  

Hence, while it is being treated as more of an internal divide inside Pakistan, the mess could have deep ramifications for the future of Pakistan, and for countries in the region like India and extra-regional powers like the US deeply engaged there. Such is the magnitude of the scandal that the ISI Chief Lt. Gen Ahmed Shuja Pasha rushed to London to meet Ijaz to verify his claims. 

According to Ijaz, he had provided the full data and evidence, including records of phone calls, SMS messages, Blackberry exchanges and emails. The claims and counter-claims have reportedly been discussed at the highest levels of the Pakistani establishment and even Haqqani had to be summoned to Islamabad to explain his side of the story.

He had apparently denied reports linking him to the memo but has resigned. Interestingly, news reports have unearthed another angle to the American side of the story. Former US National Security Advisor James Jones has confirmed that he had acted as a courier to deliver the controversial memo from Ijaz to Mullen. However, in an email sent to some Pakistani journalists, Jones added, “I was not in government when I forwarded the message to Admiral Mullen on May 10.”

According to Ijaz, in return for the US support, President Zardari had offered to replace Pakistan's powerful military and intelligence leadership and cut ties with militant groups. Apparently, the memo also includes Zardari’s assurances to fully cooperate with India in bringing to book the perpetrators of the 26/11 attacks within or outside the government, including intelligence agencies. When quizzed on this matter, Ijaz told NDTV that this was among several proposals “designed to win the confidence of the US administration.”

Asked about the impact of the political situation in Pakistan on India, Indian officials asserted that New Delhi had weathered much tougher situations and there was no reason for concern. They stated: “The ISI has thrown everything possible at us from 1989 to 1999 beginning with Kashmir to Kargil. We need to worry only if it gets worse than what we have experienced during the period.”  

The civil-military imbalance in Islamabad is something quite discernible and there is no doubt that it has proved a slow poison detrimental to Pakistan. The geostrategic location of Pakistan and its status as a frontline State for US strategic interests in the region has inevitably strengthened the Pakistani military and intelligence to a fault in comparison to other civil institutions in the country.

Hence, civilian governments in the country have always been at the mercy of the military generals. This is something that every politician in Pakistan clearly understands but for various reasons finds it difficult to acknowledge publicly. Clearly, the ‘memogate’ is reflective of this tension and unearths the discord between civilian and military institutions that baffles Pakistanis as well as external actors. The weakness of institutions in the country has produced unhealthy personality-based authorities. Indeed, the domination of the men in uniform has to end if Pakistan is to prosper and start healthy relations with India. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)