Round The World

New Delhi, 8 November 2011

Pak MFN Status

NO MAGIC WAND

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

First, the good news. Of late, there have been some diplomatic walks and talks by India and Pakistan for increasing confidence building measures (CBMs) on a range of issues between the Foreign Secretary and Foreign Minister. And, keeping the track open for more contentious issues. Pakistan has reportedly decided to give the Most-Favoured nation (MFN) status to India.

Now, the bad news. Even as reports of this welcome step flooded the media, Pakistan’s press stated that there were conflicting concerns inside with Islamabad unclear of its decision. Notwithstanding, the Pakistani Establishment coming out in full force confirming its resolve to go ahead with the MFN status, comments flooded the media of domestic constraints restraining it from directly adopting the MFN status decision. 

“There is absolutely no question of back-tracking on the Cabinet’s approval of trade normalization with India,” Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar said trying to dispel fears that Islamabad had stepped behind from granting MFN status to India. Echoed Prime Minister Gilani MFN was not a document or a certificate but a proposal which the Commerce Ministry would work on with its Indian counterpart.

“Better late than never. I welcome Pakistan’s decision to grant us MFN status. This should have happened 17 years ago! As I believe, rightly or wrongly, the destinies of countries in South Asia are very closely linked,” exclaimed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

True, a literal translation of MFN status might not reflect the true intent and meaning of MFN, which is nothing but an anti-discriminatory mechanism wherein a country treats another equally with all other countries with which it does trade. So, the process in order to succeed needs to be distanced from emotional outburst and the usual diatribes from hawkish elements. MFN should be treated and taken up as a trade-related CBM, the proper implementation of which might have positive repercussions for the people on both sides along-with the health of the composite dialogue.

Healthy and prospective trade is a two-way traffic, and India had extended MFN to Pakistan way back in 1996 without any reciprocity. As the adage goes, ‘proof of the pudding is in the eating’ proper implementation is the real test and mere institutionalization of CBMs without practice would be a mere flash in the pan. Commented, Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai it is an “indication of forward movement” but also expressed caution. “The actual MFN implementation would be a culmination of the normalization process which could take some time.”

Undeniably, Islamabad looks at all India-Pakistan issues through the Kashmir-specific prism.  This does not demean the centrality and sensitivity of the issue but narrowing down bilateral relations to a single choking point has not helped matters at all. The ties so far are about taking one step forward and then several steps backwards, thus jeopardizing whatever gains have been made. This has to change for good

The relationship saw a complete downhill after the Mumbai attacks, which, justifiably continue to be on the top of the agenda. Since then, meetings between the two Prime Ministers and several other high-level visits have tried to bring back some steam to the relationship. Various evidences have pointed to the attacks being hatched on Pakistani soil with culpability of some sections of the ISI whereby New Delhi is frustrated with Islamabad’s dilly-dallying tactics.

According to reports, Pakistani Judicial Commission will be visiting India vis-à-vis the 26/11 case. Islamabad contends that the charges against 7 LeT operatives, including ‘Operation Commander' Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, lodged in a Pakistan jail were based on Kasab's statement and hence the Additional Chief Metropolitan Magistrate and Investigating Officer statements were necessary to be presented before its anti-terror Court.

Importantly, terrorism has broken the spine of India-Pakistan ties and this will continue to haunt the region and both countries unless and until the Pakistani Establishment comes clean on the complicity of its own men and its Army’s India-centric mentality changes. It is quite discernible that Pakistan’s civil-military relationship is heavily tilted in favour of the men in uniform, and there is always a fear of military coup to overthrow the civilian leadership.

Besides, increasing fundamentalism of the Pakistani Army is a major concern and now, even “friend” US which had ignored this during the Cold War is getting a taste of their own game. Despite being allies in the War on Terror, the increasing hold of insurgents in Pakistan and the duplicitous nature of Islamabad’s assistance o the terror war have considerably strained US-Pakistan ties. Resulting in a rise in anti-Americanism on Pakistani streets wherein many American Congressmen favour re-assessing the entire aid-dependent relationship.

Needless to say, the Pakistani Army seems to be feeding on the recurrence of instability in the region, and despite continuing complaints, it is still considered important for the Af-Pak region. Given that it is one of the primary king-makers in the country, and as such the civil-military equations seems hard to change. Even during the MFN status debate, the Army made a front door entry with Foreign Minister Kar reiterating the overwhelming presence of the military in the Pakistani scheme of things.

As confusing signals emerged in Pakistan over grant of MFN, its Army’s dissent started circulating. Refuting the news of an emergency meeting with the military at the Foreign Office, Kar’s stated it was a “routine” one as the military is an important stakeholder; the Cabinet’s decision trumps the military’s perceived apprehensions.

Naturally, India-Pakistan relationship has been replete with uneven contours and any development has to be met with a cautious optimism, always hoping and working for the best but preparing for the worst. The issue of the MFN status is the latest in a string of CBMs coming forth lately, including India’s support for Pakistan’s recent entry into the UN’s Security Council, Islamabad’s support for extending Kamlesh Sharma’s tenure as Commonwealth Secretary-General and its Army helping defuse a potential diplomatic spar by returning an Indian helicopter that accidently strayed into Pakistani airspace.

In sum, as a part of trade-normalization measures including the decision to grant MFN status, New Delhi has also assured Islamabad of waiving non-tariff barriers and that it would not block its way in preferential market access by the European Union. As many South Asian countries have often accused India and Pakistan of over-shadowing other issues in the region.

The hope is that the current optimism brings dividends towards resolving more complicated issues. Sadly, economics alone is not the antidote to India-Pakistan troublesome relationship, and much more understanding needs to be arrived towards issues, more political and security-oriented. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)