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Af-Pak Tinderbox: INDIA MUST TIGHTEN BELT, by Monish Tourangbam, 2 Nov, 2011 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 2 November 2011

Af-Pak Tinderbox

INDIA MUST TIGHTEN BELT

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

 

International politics at any time of the year throws innumerable issues to be considered. But, the strain in US-Pakistan ties and its possible impact on the Afghan conflict has grabbed eyeballs world-wide, especially the sub-Continent. Despite being marketed as allies, Washington and Islamabad share an edgy relationship based on Pakistan’s geo-strategic location and value.

During the Cold War, Pakistan was considered a frontline State against the spread of communism and post 9/11 it began to be counted as a strategic asset in the fight against international terrorism, hatched in what is now termed the ‘Af-Pak’ region. But, US collusion with Pakistan for strategic reasons has always given a migraine to Indian policy-makers.

Even as Pakistan offered assistance and acted as America’s Non-NATO ally in the war on terror, its role at best has been ambiguous. The ISI has been exposed time and again as perpetrators of terrorist attacks in India but Washington continued to look the other way as long as Islamabad served its purpose.

However, recent American official comments on the ISI’s alleged links with the notorious Haqqani network seems to have brought a perspective change. The Obama Administration is trying to the walk the talk regarding its policy of troop withdrawal by 2014 and handing over responsibilities to Afghan forces.

Recently, stinging comments by both against each other has resulted in a tense relationship. Anti-Americanism has been on the rise in Pakistan and the US Congress has vociferously reiterating the need to cut aids to Pakistan.

Questionably, is America finally willing to use out-sized sticks against Pakistan? Will the US finally re-boot its long ties with the Pakistani military? Or like many other times, will Washington yet again choose to sweep legitimate concerns under the rug, and take the safe way out, putting regional security in jeopardy?

Only time will tell. But, in that case, India needs a few aces up its sleeve to plan for the post-withdrawal period.  

Recall, recently retired US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Muellen started a diplomatic inferno by asserting that the ISI-Haqqani association was “very well known”. He also accused the ISI of maintaining contact with the Haqqani, calling it the ISI’s “veritable arm”, during the daring attack on the American embassy in Kabul. But it is also a fact that the US Government till now has failed to blacklist the Haqqani network.

Regardless of all the verbal duels in the media and US Executive orders targeting some top leaders of the group, the US State Department has not taken the next logical step to list the group as a foreign terrorist organization. Remember, the Haqqani network has targeted western forces in Afghanistan and is clearly seen as a real-time threat to security in the region. Many analysts question if the Haqqanis are at all interested in any sincere reconciliation efforts. So, what is stopping Washington?

Moreover, the peace efforts were recently dealt a big blow with the brutal assassination of the leader of the High Peace Council and former President Burhanuddin Rabbani. Officials in Kabul investigating the assassination were reportedly upset with the lack of cooperation from Islamabad.

Further, if the US concerns about ISI links with the Haqqanis are taken to their proper conclusion, then the job, ideally, should not end with just blacklisting the Haqqani group. The next finger should be raised towards the ISI, and by default the Pakistani military Establishment. Pakistan’s civilian Government has always been at the mercy of the military and Washington would not want to jeopardize its strategic calculations in the region by breaking bonds with the military. 

Although many US lawmakers continue to ask the State Department to add Haqqani to its foreign terrorist organizations list, the options are still being weighed. Said a South Asia expert at Washington’s Woodrow Wilson Center International Center for Scholars  Michael Kugelman, “Certainly the biggest concern is that designating the Haqqani network would put a lot of pressure on Washington to go a step further and designate Pakistan as a State sponsor of terror. That would effectively spell the end of US-Pakistan relations as we have known them,” he added.  

And Washington while aware of Islamabad’s duplicitous nature might still not want to lose an ally, of great geo-strategic value like Pakistan. The Haqqani network, based in North Waziristan, by dint of its sheer influence, would inevitably play a role in reconciliation efforts.

According to Malou Innocent, another South Asia expert at Washington’s Cato Institute asserted, “The Haqqani network is just one of many influential factions the Administration must deal with if they are to reach any kind of a political settlement in Afghanistan. And once they are designated, it’s more difficult to argue why anyone should negotiate with a group you have said is a terrorist organization,” she reasoned.

Undeniably, there is a strategic tussle unfolding in Afghanistan and as the western forces plan to withdraw from the region, India has to tighten its belt and strive to preserve its interests. Although the presence of the Taliban in one form or the other is a highly foreseeable future, all powers involved needs to ensure that moderate elements win the debate and the extremist elements are depleted as much as possible.

Indeed, India has unleashed its soft power in Afghanistan with one of the largest bilateral assistance towards the country’s re-construction. And leaders of both countries share a good camaraderie along-with high level visits from both sides being sustained. India is reportedly finalizing a plan to construct a 900-km railway line that will connect Chabahar port in Iran, being built with Indian help, to the mineral-rich Hajigak region of Afghanistan.

Hajigak, 130 km west of Kabul in Bamiyan province, holds Afghanistan's largest iron ore deposits. Of the 22 companies shortlisted for the bid for these mines 14 are Indian, including a consortium led by the public sector Steel Authority of India Limited. When implemented, this will also give access to oil-rich Central Asia. Other than this, New Delhi has agreed to assist in the training, equipping and capacity building programmes for the Afghan National Security Forces.

All in all, India has, for long, been relegated to a side actor in the Afghan theatre, where the script has been co-written by the US and Pakistan. Undoubtedly, the civilian infrastructure and the economic incentives that India creates to increase its traction are all important, but more leverages need to be generated in sectors that will determine the future security scenario in Afghanistan.

Clearly, as the war-fatigued western forces plan to withdraw and Pakistan manipulates its way to a more muscular role in future Afghanistan even as the Taliban continually shows there is no Afghanistan without them, India needs to polish its own script and secure its interests in the tinderbox that ‘Af-Pak’ has become. ----- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

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