Round The World
New
Delhi, 2 November 2011
Af-Pak Tinderbox
INDIA MUST TIGHTEN BELT
By Monish Tourangbam
Research Scholar, School of
International Studies (JNU)
International politics at any time
of the year throws innumerable issues to be considered. But, the strain in
US-Pakistan ties and its possible impact on the Afghan conflict has grabbed
eyeballs world-wide, especially the sub-Continent. Despite being marketed as
allies, Washington and Islamabad
share an edgy relationship based on Pakistan’s geo-strategic location
and value.
During the Cold War, Pakistan was
considered a frontline State against the spread of communism and post 9/11 it
began to be counted as a strategic asset in the fight against international
terrorism, hatched in what is now termed the ‘Af-Pak’ region. But, US collusion with Pakistan for strategic reasons has
always given a migraine to Indian policy-makers.
Even as Pakistan
offered assistance and acted as America’s
Non-NATO ally in the war on terror, its role at best has been ambiguous. The
ISI has been exposed time and again as perpetrators of terrorist attacks in India but Washington
continued to look the other way as long as Islamabad served its purpose.
However, recent American official
comments on the ISI’s alleged links with the notorious Haqqani network seems to
have brought a perspective change. The Obama Administration is trying to the
walk the talk regarding its policy of troop withdrawal by 2014 and handing over
responsibilities to Afghan forces.
Recently, stinging comments by both
against each other has resulted in a tense relationship. Anti-Americanism has
been on the rise in Pakistan
and the US Congress has vociferously reiterating the need to cut aids to Pakistan.
Questionably, is America finally willing to use out-sized sticks
against Pakistan?
Will the US
finally re-boot its long ties with the Pakistani military? Or like many other times,
will Washington
yet again choose to sweep legitimate concerns under the rug, and take the safe
way out, putting regional security in jeopardy?
Only time will tell. But, in that
case, India
needs a few aces up its sleeve to plan for the post-withdrawal period.
Recall, recently retired US Chairman of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Muellen started a diplomatic inferno by asserting
that the ISI-Haqqani association was “very well known”. He also accused the ISI
of maintaining contact with the Haqqani, calling it the ISI’s “veritable arm”,
during the daring attack on the American embassy in Kabul. But it is also a fact
that the US Government till now has failed to blacklist the Haqqani network.
Regardless
of all the verbal duels in the media and US Executive orders targeting some top
leaders of the group, the US State Department has not taken the next logical
step to list the group as a foreign terrorist organization. Remember, the Haqqani
network has targeted western forces in Afghanistan and is clearly seen as
a real-time threat to security in the region. Many analysts question if the
Haqqanis are at all interested in any sincere reconciliation efforts. So, what
is stopping Washington?
Moreover,
the peace efforts were recently dealt a big blow with the brutal assassination
of the leader of the High Peace Council and former President Burhanuddin
Rabbani. Officials in Kabul investigating the
assassination were reportedly upset with the lack of cooperation from Islamabad.
Further,
if the US
concerns about ISI links with the Haqqanis are taken to their proper
conclusion, then the job, ideally, should not end with just blacklisting the Haqqani
group. The next finger should be raised towards the ISI, and by default the
Pakistani military Establishment. Pakistan’s
civilian Government has always been at the mercy of the military and Washington would not
want to jeopardize its strategic calculations in the region by breaking bonds
with the military.
Although
many US
lawmakers continue to ask the State Department to add Haqqani to its foreign
terrorist organizations list, the options are still being weighed. Said a South Asia expert at Washington’s Woodrow Wilson Center International Center for Scholars Michael Kugelman, “Certainly the
biggest concern is that designating the Haqqani network would put a lot of
pressure on Washington to go a step further and designate Pakistan as a State
sponsor of terror. That would effectively spell the end of US-Pakistan relations
as we have known them,” he added.
And Washington while aware of Islamabad’s
duplicitous nature might still not want to lose an ally, of great geo-strategic
value like Pakistan.
The Haqqani network, based in North
Waziristan, by dint of its sheer influence, would inevitably play
a role in reconciliation efforts.
According
to Malou Innocent, another South
Asia expert at Washington’s Cato Institute asserted, “The Haqqani network is just one of many
influential factions the Administration must deal with if they are to reach any
kind of a political settlement in Afghanistan. And once they are
designated, it’s more difficult to argue why anyone should negotiate with a
group you have said is a terrorist organization,” she reasoned.
Undeniably, there is a strategic tussle
unfolding in Afghanistan and
as the western forces plan to withdraw from the region, India has to
tighten its belt and strive to preserve its interests. Although the presence of
the Taliban in one form or the other is a highly foreseeable future, all powers
involved needs to ensure that moderate elements win the debate and the
extremist elements are depleted as much as possible.
Indeed, India
has unleashed its soft power in Afghanistan
with one of the largest bilateral assistance towards the country’s re-construction.
And leaders of both countries share a good camaraderie along-with high level
visits from both sides being sustained. India is reportedly finalizing
a plan to construct a 900-km railway line that will connect Chabahar port in Iran, being built with Indian
help, to the mineral-rich Hajigak region of Afghanistan.
Hajigak, 130 km west of Kabul
in Bamiyan province, holds Afghanistan's
largest iron ore deposits. Of the 22 companies shortlisted for the bid for
these mines 14 are Indian, including a consortium led by the public sector
Steel Authority of India Limited. When implemented,
this will also give access to oil-rich Central Asia.
Other than this, New Delhi
has agreed to assist in the training, equipping and capacity building
programmes for the Afghan National Security Forces.
All
in all, India has, for long,
been relegated to a side actor in the Afghan theatre, where the script has been
co-written by the US and Pakistan. Undoubtedly,
the civilian infrastructure and the economic incentives that India creates to increase its traction are all
important, but more leverages need to be generated in sectors that will determine
the future security scenario in Afghanistan.
Clearly,
as the war-fatigued western forces plan to withdraw and Pakistan manipulates its
way to a more muscular role in future Afghanistan even as the Taliban
continually shows there is no Afghanistan without them, India needs to polish
its own script and secure its interests in the tinderbox that ‘Af-Pak’ has
become. ----- INFA
(Copyright,
India News and Feature Alliance)
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