Political Diary

New Delhi, 29 October 2011

AFSPA Controversy

HAS CM JUMPED THE GUN?

By Poonam I Kaushish

The Jammu & Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah seems to be afflicted by the Grand Prix Formula 1 racing fervor which debuted in Greater Noida last weekend. Whereby, in his enthusiasm driven by scoring political points he rashly announced lifting the highly controversial and much maligned Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act (AFSPA) from the State. Thereby overturning a decision bound to crash!

It all started with Abdullah’s unilaterally announcing removing AFSPA “in certain areas within days” as the security situation had improved, sic, last week. Taking off-guard, the Congress State Chief Saifuddin Soz slammed him for “his blunder and pandering to sectarian interests", retaliated an adamant Chief Minister, “I have discussed it with Union Home Minister Chidambaram.”

Joining issue, the Congress High Command stated Abdullah should have consulted the Unified Command comprising the army, Defence Ministry and para-military forces underscoring a widening rift between the allies. Compounding matters, PDP Chief Mehbooba Mufti castigated her arch rival for “superficial, incompetent handling and creating utter confusion”. Under the J&K Constitution, the Chief Minister is empowered to do away with the Disturbed Areas Act, which involves invoking AFSPA, by issuing a notification with his signature.

Recall, AFSPA passed by Parliament on 11 September 1958 conferred special powers to the armed forces in "disturbed areas" in Arunachal, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura and was extended to J&K in July 1990. Wherein it empowers State Governments to declare a state of emergency, allows security forces to arrest people without a warrant in areas declared “disturbed”, shoot at sight even killing a person acting in contravention of any law" and gives security forces legal immunity for their actions, no prosecution or suit.

Perhaps, the Chief Minister decision is guided by the fact that Kashmir today is vastly from the violence-ridden 1990s. There is a strong desire for normalcy and political vibrancy. Highlighted by a record voter turnout, over 80% in the panchayat polls early this year, up from 65% in the Assembly two years ago, notwithstanding terrorist threats. A record influx of tourist also signals Kashmiris’ craving for an end to violence, replaced by bread-and-butter issues of development and employment.

However, four grenade attacks and attack on a cop in south Kashmir within 48 hours has paid put to his decision to lift AFPSA. Contesting the Chief Minister’s claim, Central security agencies state that the situation in the Valley is still volatile and any attempt to force the Army to withdraw from areas by depriving them of immunity offered by AFSPA would be fraught with risks.

The Army has pointed out that the falling violence levels are misleading and not indicative of reduced militant activity. Though no major terror incidents have taken place following the removal of Army bunkers from city areas, it warns that this could be a militants ploy to test the waters.

Citing figure, it contends infiltration has risen with over 2,500 militants presently lodged in 42 terror-training camps in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) of which around 800 are waiting at launch pads near the Line of Control (LoC) to strike. Despite, nearly 30 terrorists being killed along the LoC in the last two months while attempting to cross over.

Corroborating this, intelligence agencies too assert a rise in infiltration attempts from across the border even during the winter months this time, as many Lashkar-e-Taiyba’s top leaders along-with other militant outfits have been eliminated by the Army in the past six months making it imperative for  the militant network to send  new leaders to take over operations in the valley.

Warned a security expert, “If AFSPA is removed from some parts of the State now, there might not be any major impact as winter has set in and the snow will soon block all the passes and the militants might continue to hold their fire. But as summer starts next year and the pressure builds to withdraw AFSPA from more areas, the State police might find it difficult to control things on its own. In that event the Army might not venture into areas where AFSPA is not in force, even in the event of a sudden spurt in violence”, he added for good measure.

Moreover, in the event of another violent outbreak in the Valley necessitating requisitioning of the Army, there might be no option but to re-impose AFSPA. Undeniably, this would not only cause major embarrassment to the Centre and State but also lead to admitting internationally that things in J&K are not going as planned and the situation is deteriorating.

Besides, revoking AFSPA from areas under Army operations was akin to fighting insurgency with one’s hands tied. By depriving troops of the immunity offered by the special laws it would sap their morale and impair operations. Clinching its argument that the lifting of AFSPA in Manipur in 2004 had not helped the situation, led to an increase in violence and the Act’s re-imposition.

Undoubtedly Abdullah seems to have jumped the gun. With four grenade attacks, within 48 hours, and an attack on a cop in south Kashmir post his announcement,  along-with vehement opposition from the Congress and Defence Establishment the Chief Minister has limited options. If he removes AFSPA even from the most peaceful areas, the State could face challenges in overcoming terrorism in other parts. And, if he doesn’t he would have to eat his words.

He needs to remember that the Armed Forces are operating in a highly hostile environment to defend the border as well as for counter-insurgency and counter-terrorist operations in the hinterland. In carrying out their duties the security forces need to ensure minimum collateral damage and safeguard human rights violations. Against the backdrop of these operational constraints, the defence personnel require the full backing and support of the Government. As also the necessary powers and legal support to avoid any legal actions.

Thanks to the Chief Minister shooting from his hip, two north-Eastern States Assam and Manipur have too upped the ante for AFSPA’s removal. In the former, Manab Adhikar Sangram Samity, an Assam-based human rights body has intensified its movement demanding repeal of the ‘draconian’ Act 1958. In adjoining Manipur it has given a push to 'Iron Lady' Sharmila’s 11-year-long hunger strike since November 2000 demanding repeal of the Act.

All in all, this political tu-tu-mein-mein between allies NC and Congress and unnecessary controversy exposes the deep distrust within the political establishment with rival parties and politicos willy nilly converting the State  in to a racing track to try out their populist driving skills. Alas, J&K is no race track.

It is therefore imperative for Chief Minister Abdullah to continue AFSPA till the time insurgency in the State is brought down to the manageable levels and his Government machinery is able to establish its writ. Else, buried under the raucous netagan allegations will lay the tragedy of strife-torn Kashmir!  --- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)