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Musharraf Vulnerable:NORMALCY IN PAK A FAR CRY,6 November 2007 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 6 November 2007

Musharraf Vulnerable

NORMALCY IN PAK A FAR CRY

By Dr. Chintamani Mahapatra

School of International Studies, JNU

The way the international community has responded to the imposition of emergency in Pakistan by President Pervez Musharraf is as though it is a surprise move by the Pakistani strongman.

But, President Musharraf’s multiple failures were all indicative that emergency was imminent. His failures include the inability to come to terms with the developments in the North West Frontier Province either by diplomacy or military means, to anticipate and prevent a terrorist attack that could have killed former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, defeat at the hands of the lawyers who restored suspended Chief Justice Iftikar Chaudhary to office and the rising trend of militant violence in the major cities.  

Musharraf knew very well that he was increasingly becoming a target of Western criticism for his powerlessness to check cross-border terrorism in Afghanistan, quite in contrast to years’ of praise he received for his cooperation in the war against terrorism. He realized that his policy of selective openness and controlled democracy made him an easy target of the media, the opposition political parties and even the judiciary.

Well aware of the fate of departing dictators, Musharraf clamped emergency in the country before it was too late. He didn’t give the judiciary the time to decide the legitimacy of his recent election by the National Assembly. The Supreme Court, headed by a Chief Justice he had unsuccessfully tried to overthrow and who had become extremely popular at home and well-known abroad, could not have been expected to deliver a verdict to his liking. Musharraf feared that in case the court verdict went against his election, it would have been almost impossible for him to control events in his own favour.

Thus, he had enough reasons to justify his action. He put the blame on the judiciary for being overactive and infringing the jurisdiction of the executive. He criticized the media for being irresponsible. He warned the country of rising militant violence and suicide bombings. He wanted to save the country and thus imposed the emergency rule.

But to his surprise there aren’t many takers of his so-called justifications either within Pakistan or outside of it. He was already blamed for his failing policies in the West before imposing the emergency. Recently, the Newsweek International depicted Pakistan as the world’s “most dangerous” place, where everything was available that could have been asked by Osama bin Laden: “political instability, radical Islamists, abundance of young anti-Western recruits, secluded training areas along the northern border with Afghanistan, and access to state-of-the-art electronic technology.” And, the blame was put on the Pakistani Government for all this.

The Financial Times, London, pointed out that Pakistan was fast sliding into a condition of a failed State with Islamic militants extending their activities to major cities from the jungles of the NWFP. A New York Times story said that Pakistan was one country “where Al Qaeda, the Taliban and nuclear weapons are all in play.”

For months, American foreign policy analysts and some legislators have been questioning the wisdom of the Bush Administration’s policy of putting all American anti-terrorism eggs in Musharraf’s basket. The White House had little alternative and kept its faith in President Musharraf. Less than two weeks before the imposition of emergency, White House officials in media interviews persisted in their assessment that Musharraf would maintain enough influence to maintain stability and order in Pakistan. The Bush Administration also spent enormous diplomatic energy into roping in Benazir Bhutto and her Pakistan People’s Party to a power-sharing arrangement with President Musharraf.

However, once the suicide bomb exploded, killing and injuring scores of people during the welcome procession of Benazir, Bush Administration officials saw the writing on the wall. The political meltdown came to be viewed as “the nightmare scenario” for President George Bush’s last 15 months in office.

No one knows whether the attack was aimed at Benazir or was a warning to President Musharraf or was a demonstration of hatred against the US-sponsored compromise deal. It could have as well been all in one. But speculation on that has receded to the background with the clamping down of emergency, interpreted by some as a sort of martial law.

Now, Pakistani lawyers are on the streets once again protesting the dismissal of judges and the unconstitutional imposition of emergency. The militants and religious extremists may go into hiding for sometime, but would sooner rather than later strike their next target. Significantly, Pakistan’s aid donors have expressed their reservations against the emergency and have urged Musharraf to return to civilian rule soon.

After investing more than $ 10 billion in Pakistan since September 11 terrorist attacks on the US, the Bush Administration has come under severe criticism for failing to achieve the objectives of the aid. President Musharraf lacks ability to control the Taliban and Al Qaeda infested NWFP. Afghanistan continues to be in turmoil, partly because of Pakistani failure or lackluster support to the US efforts. Militancy and extremism within Pakistan has been on the rise.

It is thus no wonder that US Secretary of State has urged Musharraf to lift the emergency and hold elections. The American response has been carefully calculated not to distance itself from President Musharraf completely, since there is no viable alternative yet. The mild pressure on him is aimed at public diplomacy to explain the US stand against authoritarian measures of Musharraf.

Frankly, no one knows whether an election conducted by Musharraf with a judiciary under his influence and a media under his control can at all restore normalcy to Pakistan?  Quick lifting of emergency will prove Musharraf to be a vulnerable General and expose his weaknesses. Holding of elections under his stewardship may not be acceptable to the Pakistan people. Embracing a stronger and more authoritarian Musharraf will be difficult for the Bush Administration and that too in an election year.

This is one of the situations where rational calculations by foreign policy realists can go completely wrong. While a country with nuclear weapons, terrorists and aid dependent economy is a frightening development for India, so is it for the most powerful country in the world. The continuing insurgency in Iraq, uncertainty over Iran’s directions in nuclear diplomacy, re-emergence of the Taliban as a force in Afghanistan and a political meltdown in Pakistan pose enormous challenges to India and the international community.--- INFA

 (Copyright, India News & Feature Alliance)

 

 

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