Round The World

New Delhi, 18 October 2011

India-Myanmar Ties

CROSSING CHINESE HURDLE

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

Myanmar’s President, U Thein Sein, paid his first visit to New Delhi to assess the state of bilateral relations between the two neighbouring countries. New Delhi’s Myanmar strategy has often been widely criticized. Its policymakers have always had a hard time trying to defend India-Myanmar ties, in the face of international condemnation of the military junta and its human right records.

But, if the winds of change blowing in this neighbouring nation do materialize into some substantial transformation for both its people and the proponents of a democratic Myanmar like Aung San Suu Kyi, then there is good news for India. President Sein, a former military leader nevertheless, who took over a new Government this March, has reportedly initiated some well-meaning reforms in this beleaguered country.

For reasons of vital national interest and geo-strategy, New Delhi had to swallow a barrage of criticism and re-orient its priorities to develop good relations with the military-ruled Myanmar. Situated just across the disturbed eastern border, prudence demanded Indian policymakers to develop a habit of cooperation with the military junta. Further, New Delhi’s ‘Look East Policy’ warranted a pragmatic relationship with Myanmar that could serve as a gateway to Southeast Asia.

Many analysts still preserve well-reasoned scepticism regarding the question of reforms in Myanmar. For one, the Myanmarese military is very much in control of the power levers and any prospect of a march towards a functional democracy depends on the sincerity of the military leaders, who came to power through elections largely known to be flawed. But, at this point in time, a benefit of doubt should be given to the Myanmarese President who seems to have taken some bold initiatives towards reforming his country’s political structure.

Some genuine effort have been made in reaching out to the National League for Democracy (NLD) leader, Aung San Suu Kyi and even she has expressed optimism in the reform process. The Thein Sein government has granted amnesty to about 200 political prisoners, ended restrictions on the internet and lifted the ban on trade union activity. In an attempt at building confidence, he has reportedly appointed a former liaison officer to Suu Kyi as his minister of social welfare, relief and resettlement and her close friend, U Myint, as his chief economic adviser.

Now, if all the promises shown by the present government gradually materializes into a more inclusive and democratic Myanmar, then it could open a wider space for democratic India to engage and assist a new nascent democracy in its immediate neighborhood. That would be an ace up India’s sleeve in its effort to control Chinese influence in its neighborhood. Chinese investment and its natural affinity to a more authoritarian Myanmar have been a major concern to Indian policymakers.

Importantly, New Delhi’s patience with Myanmar’s government at the face of international condemnation at the moment seems to be paying off. President Sein has signaled his intent of increasing the area of convergences with India, despite the overwhelming presence of Chinese influence in the region. He has even shown signs of defiance against Beijing, having reportedly ‘postponed’ the $3.6 billion Chinese-financed Myitsone hydro-electric power project, the first in a series of dams on the upper reaches of the country's main river system, the Irrawaddy, in response to strong public opposition.

If this policy stance from the new leader becomes a precedent for Myanmar’s new-found independent policymaking, then New Delhi could assume the growth of a democratic neighbour that will not be subservient to the influence of any other major power in the region, or beyond.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during President Sein’s visit welcomed the convening of the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw, Pyithu Hluttaw and Amyotha Hluttaw (National Parliament of Myanmar) and the elected Assemblies in all the States and Regions in Myanmar and expressed readiness to share India's own experiences in evolving parliamentary rules, procedures and practices. In this context it was noted that the Speaker of the Pyithu Hluttaw (Lower House of Myanmar’s Parliament) has been invited to lead a delegation to India in December 2011. 

In addition to the present Line of Credit amounting to US$ 300 million, New Delhi has extended another Line of Credit for US$500 million. Energy security is one of the areas where India’s and China’s interest often collide. Given the size of Chinese and Indian economies with a huge population, both are vigorously looking for energy resources, and Myanmar with its substantial reserves of oil and natural gas would be a natural ground of strategic and economic rivalry.

Both India and Myanmar have agreed to enhance cooperation in the area of oil and natural gas and the latter has welcomed the substantial investments made by Indian companies such as GAIL, ESSAR, ONGC and others in off-shore and on-shore blocks, and construction of natural gas pipelines. Myanmar agreed to encourage further investments by Indian companies, both in public and private sector, in the oil and natural gas sectors.

In addition, the South China Sea region is turning out to be another area of major Sino-Indian sparring. With India and Vietnam having come to an agreement to explore oil and gas in the region, Beijing has been clearly annoyed. It has aggressively claimed a sovereign right in the region. An agreement was signed on cooperation between Vietnam Oil and Gas Group (Petro Vietnam) and India’s ONGC Videsh Ltd in the oil and gas sector.  

In response, the hard-line Global Times (a daily Chinese tabloid under the auspices of the official Chinese Communist Party newspaper, the People’s Daily) wrote: “China should denounce this agreement as illegal. Once India and Vietnam initiate their exploration, China can send non-military forces to disturb their work, and cause dispute or friction to halt the two countries' exploration.”

Coming back to India-Myanmar ties, many analysts including former Indian Foreign Secretary and also a former Ambassador to Myanmar, Shyam Saran believe that India’s lackluster attitude is a crucial impediment. Indian-aided projects have been falling behind schedule and despite all the positives in the relationship, there is a real fear of India and its companies being characterized as not being able to implement projects in time. Saran wrote: “The weak point in India's Myanmar policy lies in our inability to deliver quickly on projects that we have committed ourselves to.” As such, India has to battle its demons in addition to those unleashed by China to win in countries like Myanmar.

It’s an era that will see countries engaging in multiple balancing acts. Sino-Indian frictions in so many issues cannot possibly hinder bilateral economic linkages. Even, countries like Myanmar and Vietnam while engaging India and increasing their area of maneuvers cannot possibly put their larger ties with a powerful China on the razor’s edge.

As India’s power and influence steadily increases in the region and beyond, it will increasingly find more and more areas of collision with a fellow rising neighbor like China. So, adroit diplomatic balancing is the need of the hour, but not at the cost of being a pushover on issues of major national interest. ---INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)