Political Diary

New Delhi, 17 September 2011

Arguing Jaw-Jaw

INEDIBLE CHINESE NOODLES

By Poonam I Kaushish

In this politically ‘rainy’ season deluged by competitive ‘sadbhavana’ fasts and tu-tu-mein-mein on your-chori-vs-my-chori, two ‘intrusions’ with far reaching implications for India’s foreign policy were ‘exterminated’ by New Delhi. Shedding its ostrich-like attitude for the first time India cocked a snook at China, singing not Hindi-Chini-bhai-bhai but arguing jaw-jaw!

Not once but twice over in recent months. After months of lull, when Beijing raised the ante and issued a demarche asking New Delhi to cease oil exploration in two South China Sea blocks offered by Vietnam as it enjoyed “indisputable sovereignty” South Block’s not only dismissed Chinese claims but went on an offensive by asserting it would like cooperation with Vietnam to grow.  Thereby, ignoring, China’s threat that this might “poison” ties.

This is not all. New Delhi raised the pitch and retaliated by bluntly telling Beijing to ‘lay-off’ in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK) as its activities there were in contravention of international norms. India’s concerns arise over two infrastructure projects, upgradation of the Karakoram Highway and the Diamer-Bhasha dam as Chinese presence there are aimed at bolstering its military strength and intervention options against India in the event of another war between the sub-continental rivals.

Only recently reports of Chinese troop’s intrusion along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Leh and two helicopters in Chumur have annoyed New Delhi. Specially, against the backdrop of Northern Army Commander’s warning in April last, "Chinese presence in Gilgit-Baltistan and the Northern Areas is increasing steadily... if there was to be hostility between us and Pakistan, what would be the complicity of Chinese? Not only are they in the neighbourhood but are actually present and stationed along the LoC."

Raising a moot point: Are China-India ties heading for a stand-off? Or is it mere posturing? True, on the face of it are relations are presently “good”, despite strains. The two Asian powerhouses resumed defence ties that were frozen for a year over Beijing’s visa refusal to the Army’s Northern Commander in “disputed” Kashmir and vowed to boost military cooperation with each other. Nothing more nothing less. 

There were a spate of high level visits last year including Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s to New Delhi, the ‘Chindia’ synergy was visible at the Copenhagen Summit on climate change in 2009 and in global trade issues. But these have failed to translate into new confidence as far as core issues of interest are concerned. Namely, the long-standing border disputes, recognition of J&K as an integral part of India, Pakistan’s role as a terror factory and endorsing India’s bid for the UN Security Council.

Pertinently, its rising economic and military power is emboldening Beijing to pursue a more muscular foreign policy. Today, China is not shying away from showcasing its military capabilities and asserting itself on multiple fronts.

Already it is busy constructing the giant $25 billion Three Gorges Dam project and a $1.2 billion hydro-electric power station on the Brahmaputra which will impact the flow of water and have massive repercussions for the North East. Asserted Assam Chief Minister Gogoi, “this could have an adverse ecological impact and possible soil erosion also."

In a development, which has alarmed Raisina Hill, Beijing is simultaneously working on bringing its rail link right up to Nyangtri, located on the border with Arunachal Pradesh and an area that China claims as its own. More worrisome is China’s "more than normal interest" in the Indian Ocean region. With the Indian Ocean becoming the most important waters in the 21st Century, Beijing wants to be a major player in the Indian Ocean.

The Chinese “string of pearls” around India is finding firmer anchorage fast. Starting at Hainan, China’s southern-most province with its submarine bay; it has a listening post at Coco islands, Hianggyi, Khaukphyu, Mergui and Zadetkyi Kyun port facilities in Myanmar; Hambantota Port in Sri Lanka  Chittagong in Bangladesh to Pakistan’s Gwadar on the Arabian Sea.

Further, it intends appending this string to the continental mass of Tibet, Nepal, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Already a direct highway and waterway links China’s southern Yunan province to Myanmar’s Yangon port providing direct access to the Bay of Bengal. In effect, Beijing has surrounded India around its frontiers, except Bhutan where we remain the favoured partner.

Other headaches include Beijing’s civil nuclear cooperation agreement with Islamabad, a counter-weight to the India-US nuclear agreement. What to speak of billions worth of arms and military hardware. It has built a 300-mw nuclear power reactor at Chashma in Punjab province and another of the same capacity is under way and has got access to the Gwader port, Pakistan’s gateway to Europe.

Thus, many believe Beijing poses a serious challenge in the short and medium term. Not only will China’s belligerence towards India increase but could also pit them against each other. Clearly, Beijing’s game-plan to gain Asian supremacy in the long-term is to make its neighbours specially in South-east Asia and South China Sea, increasingly dependent on it, both militarily and economically.

At the same time, the distrust is not one-sided. Beijing too is concerned with India’s rise and wants to restrict India to the South Asian region; curtail  New Delhi’s expanding voice and influence in the international system. Consequently, to prevent any potential challenge that New Delhi might pose in the future, Beijing has consistently followed a ‘contain India’ strategy since the 1960s.

Importantly, realizing that it takes two to tango, New Delhi finally seems to be taking baby steps in international real politik. If China can flaunt its “all weather friendship” with Pakistan, India too is displaying its strong ties with the US. President Obama’s visit to Delhi last November not only earned much goodwill but by supporting India’s bid for the UN Security Council’s permanent membership earned accolades. Needless to say, this cosying up has made China all prickly.

All in all, New Delhi finally seems to smell the coffee. It needs to continue injecting realism and place a premium on substance and leveraged diplomacy to deal with the challenge of ambitious nations. Given that India-China ties will continue to be characterised by competition, tension, endless talks, and limited cooperation on issues of mutual concern.

Both will employ strategic maneuovers to checkmate each other from gaining advantage or expanding their spheres of influence. According to a foreign policy expert, “If the border issue is not resolved, the national identity is not defined, which means that the normalisation of relations between the two neighbours is not complete. That is the biggest source of mistrust. There is no road map, no progress. While a hot war is out of the question, a cold war between the two countries is increasingly likely.”

In the ultimate, India needs to calibrate its China policy differently. Till it takes the bull by the horns and hammers out its differences across the table with Beijing nothing is going to change. One needs to press and project one’s area of influence in the neighborhood to contain China’s growth. New Delhi needs to send a clear message that the Indian curry has as much appeal as the Chinese noodles ---- INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)