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Western World Pressure:WILL SYRIA FOLLOW TRIPOLI?, by Monish Tourangbam, 23 August 2011 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 23 August 2011

Western World Pressure

WILL SYRIA FOLLOW TRIPOLI?

By Monish Tourangbam

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

As newsreels pour in on the rebel forces closing in on the Libyan capital of Tripoli, world leaders are losing no time in welcoming the ensuing victory. They have signaled the end of the Gaddafi regime and welcomed the National Transition Council in Libya.  As one anxiously awaits the developments to unfold in strife-torn Libya, another Arab country, Syria is the eye of a storm where President Bashar Al-Assad hangs on to power despite acute pressure from western nations to step aside for the march of democracy.

With the Arab Spring that started in Tunisia, entering the fall season, Syria is at a precipice. The international community seems to be speaking in one voice when it comes to condemning acts of state violence and persuading the Syrian regime to expeditiously take the path of reform towards an effective democracy. But, is the international response coherent? Are leaders from emerging powers such as India, Brazil, South Africa and even China, pressuring the Syrian President to step down? Not really.

The Indian audience is currently locked in its own version of public discontent pouring out into the streets viz the anti-corruption crusade led by social activist Anna Hazare. But India alone is not being rocked by domestic concerns. America is struggling with setting its economic house in order, the EU is fighting the spiraling Eurozone debt crisis and Britain limping back to normalcy after the riots hit London and other cities. However, emerging powers cannot sit back on foreign policy matters because of domestic problems.

Importantly, this is a pivotal year at the foreign affairs front. India held the rotating presidency of the United Nations Security Council for the month of August, and has had a change of guard at the most prominent office, with Ranjan Mathai taking charge as the new Foreign Secretary. What is New Delhi’s stand on the prevailing Syrian situation?

Lately, an IBSA delegation met the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad in Damascus calling for urgent reforms. The mood was not defined by strong-worded criticism and acute pressure as is being seen from the western world. The group, while reaffirming the commitment of India, Brazil and South Africa to the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Syria did also express grave concern at the prevailing situation and condemned violence from all sides. It called for an immediate end to all violence and urged all sides to act with utmost restraint and respect for human rights and international human rights law.

Assad as well as his Foreign Minister Walid Al-Moualem reiterated the government’s commitment to a reform process that would lead to a multi-party democracy. The delegation was assured that a process of revising the Constitution would be completed by February/March 2012. President Assad acknowledged that some mistakes had been made by the security forces in the initial stages of the unrest and that efforts were underway to prevent their recurrence.  

But at this juncture, both the Assad regime and the protestors do not seem to be budging from their positions and reports of violence continue to pour in. Fears are rising of the conflict becoming protracted. The Syrian government is insisting that the unrest is being driven by terrorists and foreign extremists to stir up sectarian strife. 

No doubt, the western countries would want the emerging nations to be more critical in their response and move towards cutting ties with the Syrian regime and instituting harsh economic sanctions. But, the latter, such as the IBSA group seems to want a smoother and less dramatic transition, which would not lead to more sectarian tensions in an ethnically diverse Syria. So, unlike the US and major European capitals, they are not directly calling for the ouster of the Assad regime.

Recently, a UN report slammed Syria for its continued use of force despite having claimed that it had halted its campaign to put down the protest movement by might. The United Nations has recommended Syria be considered for investigation at the International Criminal Court, following a month-long probe into allegations of government-sponsored killings, torture and human rights abuse.

This might give more ammunition to the western world to seriously move towards increasing the scope of sanctions against the Syrian regime and also persuade dissenting voices to reconsider their positions and adopt a harsher stance. The European Union is considering imposing a range of sanctions against the regime, including an embargo on oil following in the foot steps of the US, which has imposed a ban on the import of Syrian petroleum and related products. Analysts believe that the EU move could have serious economic impact for Syria considering that most of Syria’s oil exports head to Europe and gets about 28 per cent of its revenue from the oil trade.

More worrying for Syria, is Turkey, a major Eurasian country and a rising power in the Islamic world. Istanbul is reportedly annoyed with how the Assad regime has handled the current situation. It remains to be seen how Turkey responds in the coming days.  In this milieu, where does Russia and China, two veto wielding members of the UN Security Council, stand?

Beijing seems to be highly restrained in its position. But this is not surprising, given China’s policy of non-interference in the internal affairs of other States (of course a yardstick that is defined keeping Beijing’s economic interests in mind). Additionally, China, being an autocratic country itself, and one that is on the verge of a leadership change, would not be keen on voicing its opinion on socio-political upheavals in other part of the world.

Russia, on the other hand, has not supported the western calls for Assad to resign. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich reportedly commented that Assad must be given sufficient time to fulfill promises of reforms. In the coming days, Russian and Chinese positions would assume importance as the US and its allies move towards further stinging sanctions.

President Assad needs to do some serious introspection. Long time autocrats have fallen in the Arab world, be it Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt or the Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi besieged in a country he once ruled single-handedly. One could have hardly foreseen the scale of events that have rocked the Arab world.  Syria too is in the firing line. It is time that the regime in Damascus respects the concerns being expressed, abjure violence, institute dramatic reforms and refrain from rhetoric and empty promises. Otherwise, President Assad may end up digging his own grave and being on the wrong side of history. –INFA

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

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