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Crouching Dragon, Cautious Pak:PRAGMATIC DIPLOMACY LESSON, by Shreya Upadhyay, 16 Aug, 2011 Print E-mail

Round The World

New Delhi, 16 August 2011


Crouching Dragon, Cautious Pak

PRAGMATIC DIPLOMACY LESSON

By Shreya Upadhyay

Research Scholar, School of International Studies (JNU)

 

For those in awe of China’s economic prowess and engaged in finding ways to restrain it, the dragon revealed yet another ace up its sleeve last week. This time it was a lesson in pragmatic diplomacy for Beijing baiters in Washington and New Delhi. All quick to diagnose a freeze in Sino-Pakistan relations in the wake of a flare-up in the restive Xinjiang autonomous region. At the end, the message was clear: The alliance formed at the end of the Cold War between a nation, wary of its larger neighbour, and a historic power, revitalising itself slowly and apprehensive of traditional friend and foe alike, would continue unabated.

 

For China, the Xinjiang terror attack was an embrassment of epic proportions. The hurt was immense. Yet, Beijing kept its calm and it was only through the Provincial Administration that the blame was attributed to foreign (read Pakistan-trained) terrorists. A development which had the strategic affairs community sniff for trouble. But Beijing proved them wrong by praising Islamabad, it blamed for the unrest.

 

Interestingly, China’s carrot and stick approach mirrors the US policy in Pakistan which was shaken after Osama Bin Laden’s killing, souring relations between Obama Administration’s and Rawalpindi’s Generals. Whereby, Sino-Pak experts glibly predicted a downhill in bilateral ties as Xinjiang authorities alleged the attackers had received arms training in Pakistani camps of East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM).

 

But then came the shocker. The Chinese Foreign Ministry down-played any rift between the two countries. A China Daily, the ruling Communist Party’s official mouthpiece, proclaimed, "Pakistan was also a victim of terrorism and the Government has shown determination to fight it".

 

Beijing is restrained in pressing Islamabadf to handle ETIM militants and has refrained from making any statements. As unusual lecturing would be perceived as China's unhappiness with Pakistan's counter-terrorism efforts. A more apt reason is an attempt to show the world that such attacks are a handiwork of terrorists from abroad.

 

However, these remarks jolted Pakistan to take curative action as it is already feeling the heat of US hostility. Whereby, maintaining close ties with its 'all weather friend' China is a priority for Islamabad to reduce its dependence on the US. Significantly, there has been a surge of diplomatic overtures between the two. Both Chief of Pakistan Army General Staff Lt Gen Waheed Arshad and ISI Director General Ahmed Shuja Pasha visited Beijing post the Xinjiang violence to the clear air.

 

Pertinently, Xinjiang has been a hotbed of separatism witnessing regular outbreaks of ethnic tensions between original Uyghur Muslims residents and Han migrants. Last month, police opened fire on rioters in Khotan, killing 14 people. In 2010, China tried 376 people for violence that left six people dead. In 2009, ethnic riots between the two groups led to more than 200 dead and over 1400 injured.

 

The region shares borders with eight countries including India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, Mongolia and three ex- Soviet States, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. Thus, its population  reflects these nations more than it does China. The nine million Uyghur Muslims, who are of Turkish origin, form the majority and have no culturally proximate to the Chinese Han.

 

In fact, a pro-Independence sentiment among them intensified in the 1990s after Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan and the three neighbouring Islamic Soviet Republics gained independence. Militant groups identifying themselves as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement  and the Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) want to establish an independent homeland for ethnic Uyghurs.

 

These groups appear to have sanctuaries in Afghanistan. With reduction of military aid to Pakistan and the impeding draw-down of American troops from Afghanistan, China fears that these groups would make Afghanistan its safe haven, outside Beijing's control.

 

Besides, China has not only been zealously guarding its sway in the oil and energy rich Xinjiang but also trying to deal with the issue by creating a trade boom by forming a new Silk Route thereby tapping markets in South and Central Asia along-with Europe. Thus attracting local migration and diluting Uyghur ethnicity.

 

The Uyghurs remain disadvantaged suffering a systematic policy of repression by the Government including ban on text messaging, websites censorship etc. Restrictions have been placed on the use of Uyghur language in schools and religious expression. The Uyghur dissatisfaction stems from domestic discontent that has led to sprouting of homegrown groups demanding complete autonomy. But China blames it on separatist groups to justify security clampdown. Resulting in Xinjiang’s officials avoiding discussion on domestic causes of Uyghur militancy.

 

Undeniably, the larger issues cannot be ignored. That Beijing and Islamabad share a close and mutually beneficial relationship is evident in the dramatic Chinese volte-face. Recall, Pakistan earned credibility for being one of the first countries to recognise the People's Republic of China during the 1950s and since then remained Beijing's steadfast ally even during its international isolation in the 1960s-70s.

 

Today China's strategic calculus includes Afghanistan with its large un-tapped mineral deposits. Beijing is acutely aware of Pakistani Generals playing an integral role in Afghanistan's future and is providing military, technical and economic assistance to Islamabad. It has also invested in Pakistan’s telecommunications, ports and infrastructure, is its biggest arms supplier and the Sino-Pak cooperation in the nuclear field is a counter to the Indo-US nuclear deal.

 

In May 2011, Beijing sold 50 fighter jets to and 70 per cent of Pakistan’s tanks are Chinese. It allowed Pakistan to test its first nuclear device on Chinese soil and aided Islamabad in transportating missiles it had purchased from North Korea. Recently, Islamabad invited Beijing to create a naval base in Gwadar. Despite the deal falling through, it underscores eagerness to solidify ties with each other.

 

As US-Pak ties hit a new low with Wahington cutting its $800 million aid, Islamabad expects Beijing to chip in. However, increased Chinese aid to Pakistan might exacerbate tensions between India, Pakistan, US and China. It remains to be seen whether China would be ready to shoulder the burden the US has been taking care of till now. Remember, during Pakistan's 2008 Balance of Payment crisis Islamabad asked for $7.5 billion loan but Beijing only gave $500 million.

 

Clearly, Beijing’s sudden policy shift establishes that Islamabad is in no danger of losing its friendship. In addition, it would be naive of New Delhi and Washington to think that Beijing would prove to be a formidable ally in curtailing Islamabad's support of terrorist groups.

 

However, there is a caveat. It is no secret that Pakistan has been seeking Chinese aid to further its anti-India policies. But Beijing has global ambitions and might not be interested in spoiling its relations with Washington and even New Delhi for Islamabad’s sake. Thus, it is incumbent for Pakistan that while it engages closely with China, it should also resolve its long standing dispute with India and continue to maintain diplomatic relations with the US. ---- INFA

 

(Copyright, India News and Feature Alliance)

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