Round The World
New Delhi, 16 August 2011
Crouching Dragon, Cautious
Pak
PRAGMATIC DIPLOMACY
LESSON
By Shreya Upadhyay
Research Scholar,
School of International Studies (JNU)
For those in awe of China’s economic prowess and engaged in
finding ways to restrain it, the dragon revealed yet another ace up its sleeve
last week. This time it was a lesson in pragmatic diplomacy for Beijing baiters
in Washington and New Delhi. All quick to diagnose a freeze in Sino-Pakistan
relations in the wake of a flare-up in the restive Xinjiang autonomous region.
At the end, the message was clear: The alliance formed at the end of the Cold
War between a nation, wary of its larger neighbour, and a historic power,
revitalising itself slowly and apprehensive of traditional friend and foe
alike, would continue unabated.
For China, the Xinjiang terror attack was an embrassment of
epic proportions. The hurt was immense. Yet, Beijing kept its calm and it was
only through the Provincial Administration that the blame was attributed to
foreign (read Pakistan-trained) terrorists. A development which had the
strategic affairs community sniff for trouble. But Beijing proved them wrong by
praising Islamabad, it blamed for the unrest.
Interestingly, China’s carrot and stick approach mirrors the
US policy in Pakistan which was shaken after Osama Bin Laden’s killing, souring
relations between Obama Administration’s and Rawalpindi’s Generals. Whereby, Sino-Pak
experts glibly predicted a downhill in bilateral ties as Xinjiang authorities
alleged the attackers had received arms training in Pakistani camps of East
Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM).
But then came the shocker. The Chinese Foreign Ministry down-played
any rift between the two countries. A China Daily, the ruling Communist Party’s
official mouthpiece, proclaimed, "Pakistan was also a victim of terrorism
and the Government has shown determination to fight it".
Beijing is restrained in pressing Islamabadf to handle ETIM
militants and has refrained from making any statements. As unusual lecturing would
be perceived as China's unhappiness with Pakistan's counter-terrorism efforts. A
more apt reason is an attempt to show the world that such attacks are a
handiwork of terrorists from abroad.
However, these remarks jolted Pakistan to take curative
action as it is already feeling the heat of US hostility. Whereby, maintaining
close ties with its 'all weather friend' China is a priority for Islamabad to
reduce its dependence on the US. Significantly, there has been a surge of
diplomatic overtures between the two. Both Chief of Pakistan Army General Staff
Lt Gen Waheed Arshad and ISI Director General Ahmed Shuja Pasha visited Beijing
post the Xinjiang violence to the clear air.
Pertinently, Xinjiang has been a hotbed of separatism
witnessing regular outbreaks of ethnic tensions between original Uyghur Muslims
residents and Han migrants. Last month, police opened fire on rioters in
Khotan, killing 14 people. In 2010, China tried 376 people for violence that
left six people dead. In 2009, ethnic riots between the two groups led to more
than 200 dead and over 1400 injured.
The region shares borders with eight countries including
India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, Mongolia and three ex- Soviet States, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. Thus, its population reflects these nations more than it does
China. The nine million Uyghur Muslims, who are of Turkish origin, form the majority
and have no culturally proximate to the Chinese Han.
In fact, a pro-Independence sentiment among them intensified
in the 1990s after Soviet troops withdrew from Afghanistan and the three
neighbouring Islamic Soviet Republics gained independence. Militant groups
identifying themselves as the East Turkestan Islamic Movement and the
Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) want to establish an independent homeland for
ethnic Uyghurs.
These groups appear to have sanctuaries in Afghanistan. With
reduction of military aid to Pakistan and the impeding draw-down of American
troops from Afghanistan, China fears that these groups would make Afghanistan
its safe haven, outside Beijing's control.
Besides, China has not only been zealously guarding its sway
in the oil and energy rich Xinjiang but also trying to deal with the issue by
creating a trade boom by forming a new Silk Route thereby tapping markets in
South and Central Asia along-with Europe. Thus attracting local migration and diluting
Uyghur ethnicity.
The Uyghurs remain disadvantaged suffering a systematic
policy of repression by the Government including ban on text messaging, websites
censorship etc. Restrictions have been placed on the use of Uyghur language in
schools and religious expression. The Uyghur dissatisfaction stems from domestic
discontent that has led to sprouting of homegrown groups demanding complete
autonomy. But China blames it on separatist groups to justify security
clampdown. Resulting in Xinjiang’s officials avoiding discussion on domestic
causes of Uyghur militancy.
Undeniably, the larger issues cannot be ignored. That Beijing
and Islamabad share a close and mutually beneficial relationship is evident in
the dramatic Chinese volte-face. Recall, Pakistan earned credibility for being
one of the first countries to recognise the People's Republic of China during
the 1950s and since then remained Beijing's steadfast ally even during its international
isolation in the 1960s-70s.
Today China's strategic calculus includes Afghanistan with
its large un-tapped mineral deposits. Beijing is acutely aware of Pakistani Generals
playing an integral role in Afghanistan's future and is providing military,
technical and economic assistance to Islamabad. It has also invested in Pakistan’s
telecommunications, ports and infrastructure, is its biggest arms supplier and the
Sino-Pak cooperation in the nuclear field is a counter to the Indo-US nuclear
deal.
In May 2011, Beijing sold 50 fighter jets to and 70 per cent
of Pakistan’s tanks are Chinese. It allowed Pakistan to test its first nuclear
device on Chinese soil and aided Islamabad in transportating missiles it had purchased
from North Korea. Recently, Islamabad invited Beijing to create a naval base in
Gwadar. Despite the deal falling through, it underscores eagerness to solidify
ties with each other.
As US-Pak ties hit a new low with Wahington cutting its $800
million aid, Islamabad expects Beijing to chip in. However, increased Chinese
aid to Pakistan might exacerbate tensions between India, Pakistan, US and
China. It remains to be seen whether China would be ready to shoulder the
burden the US has been taking care of till now. Remember, during Pakistan's
2008 Balance of Payment crisis Islamabad asked for $7.5 billion loan but Beijing
only gave $500 million.
Clearly, Beijing’s sudden policy shift establishes that Islamabad
is in no danger of losing its friendship. In addition, it would be naive of New
Delhi and Washington to think that Beijing would prove to be a formidable ally
in curtailing Islamabad's support of terrorist groups.
However, there is a caveat. It is no secret that Pakistan
has been seeking Chinese aid to further its anti-India policies. But Beijing has
global ambitions and might not be interested in spoiling its relations with
Washington and even New Delhi for Islamabad’s sake. Thus, it is incumbent for Pakistan
that while it engages closely with China, it should also resolve its long
standing dispute with India and continue to maintain diplomatic relations with
the US. ---- INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature
Alliance)
|