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New Delhi, 29 June 2011
US Pull Out From Afghan
SPELLS BAD NEWS FOR INDIA
By Rajeev Sharma
President Barack Obama’s announcement that the United
States will withdraw 10,000 U.S. soldiers from Afghanistan by the end of this
year and complete withdrawal of all its 1,00,000 soldiers in that country in a
phased manner by 2014 is bad tidings for India and good news for Pakistan and
the jihadists.
The June 22 announcement is an implementation of Obama’s promises that
he made while campaigning for the presidential elections in 2008. This is
understandable from the American point of view – both economically and
strategically. The US has sunk a trillion dollar in the past one decade in
Afghanistan and can ill afford this economic black hole at a time when the
country is still grappling with recession.
From the strategic point of view, the Obama administration appears
to be convinced that post-Osama bin Laden, the al Qaida is on “a path of
defeat”, is no longer a potent adversary and that “the tide of war is
receding”. True, the US has
lost 1500 soldiers in the past decade in Afghanistan and Obama is right when he
said in his address early Thursday (India time): “We will not try to make
Afghanistan a perfect place. We will not police its streets or patrol its
mountains indefinitely. That is the responsibility of the Afghan government.”
Obama’s assessment of a degraded al Qaida post-Osama is presumptive at best and
delusionary at worst.
There are acute differences within Team Obama as is evident from
the stiff opposition to the move by none other than his top commander in
Afghanistan, Gen. David H. Petraeus, who has been named director of the Central
Intelligence Agency. General Petraeus did not endorse the decision. However, US
Defence Secretary Robert M. Gates has also argued publicly against a too-hasty
withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, but issued a statement on June 22 that
he supported Obama’s decision.
Clearly, Obama’s announcement has come as no surprise. But one
expects better strategy from the world’s sole superpower. Abandoning
Afghanistan now or in 2014 is not in the interest of Washington. It is
reminiscent of a similar American policy soon after the Afghan war ended the
Soviet Union completed withdrawal of all its troops from Afghanistan two
decades ago. The Americans had to re-enter the land-locked nation in October
2001, weeks after the 9/11 terror strikes on the American mainland.
What is the guarantee that the Americans won’t be dragged back
into Afghanistan a couple of years after their withdrawal? In fact, straws in
the wind suggest that the third American innings in Afghanistan will be far
bloodier, messier, and costlier. Obama’s move is a sign of American decline.
Europe has already distanced itself from the Afghan cauldron and the
increasingly mighty China has cleverly kept itself out of politics of terror in
Afghanistan. Instead it has focused on huge investments in mining and other
sectors. This means that China will be enlarging its footprints in India’s
backyard along with its “all-weather ally” Pakistan at a time when the US would
be out of Afghanistan. Beijing’s increased presence and influence in
Afghanistan would be detrimental to Indian strategic interests.
From the Indian point of view, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan
will be a shot in the arm for remnants of the al Qaida, Taliban and a cluster
of terror outfits actively associated with them. The US is looking at
Afghanistan from its own prism, mainly driven by economic compulsions. The message
for the al Qaida-Taliban remnants – and these are still quite sizable and
potent – is that they can breathe easy now.
Undoubtedly, they will regroup, recharge and retrain. It is good
for Pakistan because Islamabad will once again get a chance to make Afghanistan
its “fifth province”. Ascendance of Pakistani influence in Afghanistan and
empowerment of jihadist forces there will mean a deadly cocktail for India. The
Pakistan-Afghanistan border has never ceased to be a revolving door for
Taliban, al Qaida terrorists. And, the American withdrawal from Afghanistan
will convert this revolving door into a highway.
Pakistan’s Afghanistan strategy will be on expected lines. The
Obama administration will do well to revisit the core findings of its own
quarterly assessment on Pakistan and Afghanistan carried out in late March
2011. Islamabad has vehemently denied the report, presented to the US Congress.
The report said Pakistan neither had any cogent plan to stem the tide of
insurgency nor was it really interested in doing so.
Intriguingly enough, the declassified portions of the report were
not at all scathing in its criticism of the Pakistan Army. But going by
Pakistan’s ferocious reaction, first from the army and then from the civilian
leadership, raises the possibility of some hard-nosed criticism in the portions
which are tagged as `classified` and not made public. These relate to Pakistan army’s
actions vis-à-vis Taliban and the al Qaida, particularly in targeting their top
leadership and their sanctuary.
From the American
perspective, it has chalked out its Afghanistan withdrawal timetable after
opening a direct channel of talks with the Taliban, indicating that a major
announcement on political reconciliation in Afghanistan can be expected in the
near future. The American confidence is predicated on its reconciliation talks
with elements of the Taliban, a poorly kept secret that was officially confirmed on June 19
by Afghan President Hamid Karzai at a formal press conference in
Kabul.
The Americans’ optimism
about the reconciliation talks, which seems to be the cornerstone for their
exit strategy, stems from this
internal dialogue and is bolstered by regional support with Pakistan and even
Iran on board. The very fact that the US is now having direct talks with the Taliban
indicates that enough ground work, going on for well over a year, has been done
and now only the final nitty-gritty remains to be clinched.
As far as New Delhi is
concerned, it has legitimate concerns with Taliban gaining a foot hold in
Afghan government because terrorism
in India was at its peak when Taliban-ruled Afghanistan from 1996 to 2001,
the period during which Pakistan used Afghanistan as its fifth province.
However, India won’t mind saying “aye” to the Afghan reconciliation process as
long as its interests in Afghanistan are protected.
The topmost point on the
Indian wish list would be that its four Consulates in Afghanistan, which
Pakistan wants to be closed, continue to function. It is not for nothing that New
Delhi has so far spent $1.3 billion on a large number of infrastructure
projects in diverse fields and many more projects aimed at ameliorating the lot
of the common man in Afghanistan are in the works. ---INFA
(Copyright, India News and Feature
Alliance)
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